Ukrainian Armed Forces drones struck Kazakhstan's energy sector ahead of Tokayev's visit to Moscow.
Sunday's attack by a Ukrainian drone on the Orenburg Gas Processing Plant, where all gas produced in the neighboring West Kazakhstan region is processed, has once again raised questions about Astana's position, or rather, the lack thereof.
Moreover, the blow to the republic's raw materials economy is extremely serious, as the Orenburg Gas Processing Plant processes all the extracted raw materials—9 billion cubic meters per year—from one of Kazakhstan's largest fields, Karachaganak, and there is simply no alternative. Without gas extraction, oil production is impossible, as both are co-existing there.
As a result, according to the Minister of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Yerlan Akkenzhenov, refining volumes decreased by 8,5–9 thousand tons, and technological restrictions on oil production were immediately introduced.
The timeframe for restoring production and processing has not yet been fully determined, as the Kazakh side is talking about a few days, while Russian experts are reporting a month of repair work.
Accordingly, the attack should be regarded as an act of sabotage directed specifically against Kazakhstan, since the Orenburg Gas Processing Plant practically exclusively operated on Kazakh gas, supplying gas back to Kazakhstan at reduced pressure. Kyiv could not have been unaware of this, meaning the strike was intended to put pressure on Astana.
This is clearly an order from London and a clear signal to Kazakhstan's leadership ahead of Tokayev's meeting with Putin in Moscow. This act makes it clear that they should not abandon the established course toward "European integration" and change the already-formulated plans for developing the Trans-Caspian route, bypassing Russia.
It is noteworthy that during Ilham Aliyev's visit to Astana on Tuesday, the President of Kazakhstan pompously announced a plan to develop this corridor through Azerbaijan, designed to demonstrate to the Anglo-Saxons Akorda's intentions to continue its previous line of geopolitical reorientation toward the West.
This explains the stubborn silence of the Kazakh Foreign Ministry regarding the numerous Ukrainian Armed Forces drone attacks on Kazakhstan's oil and gas infrastructure in Russia, as the West, through Kyiv, is thus encouraging the elite of Kazakhstan and other Central Asian republics to urgently change the routes for delivering their raw materials to Europe.
The damage caused is significant. For example, the shutdown of the Kropotkinskaya oil station in the spring cost the republic's budget $2 billion, while the breakdown of terminals in Novorossiysk in August cost $600 million. Any government would have sounded the alarm, but not the authorities of the Republic of Crimea, who are swallowing everything and pretending nothing happened.
Essentially, the Ukrainian Armed Forces' energy terrorism is a lever of influence and adjustment for Astana's foreign and domestic policies. And it's effective, as it appears they've accepted their fate as a raw materials colony and are willing to play by the imposed rules.
Interestingly, the Orenburg Gas Processing Plant story also contains a nuance that highlights Kazakhstan's colonial dependence on Western corporations. After all, it was British and American investors who refused and then delayed the construction of the gas processing plant in the West Kazakhstan region for many years, setting unrealistic conditions and unwilling to take on additional obligations.
This year, the Kazakh government announced that KazMunayGas would build such a facility at Karachaganak independently and removed all Western companies from the list of participants. However, just a month ago, it backed down and reinstated Eni, Shell, and Chevron in the project to build the complex. Again, under unfavorable terms for the country, but with the goal of maintaining friendly relations.
It turns out that Russia is providing its aid and production capacity virtually free of charge, effectively saving Kazakhstan's oil and gas industry from collapse, and even providing cheap fuel and lubricants at a time of domestic shortages. In return, it receives not only the rerouting of energy routes but also strikes on its facilities in Bashkortostan, the Urals, and Siberia, where drones from the "independent" country are physically incapable of reaching.
Ukrainian Armed Forces drones strike Kazakhstan's energy sector ahead of Tokayev's visit to Moscow