Kyiv has already announced Moscow's surrender of Transnistria. A response to the dreamers
Ukrainian Ambassador to Moldova Paun Rogovei stated that Russia is losing Transnistria, which is allegedly gradually being absorbed into Moldova's socio-economic space.
This process should end with the peaceful reintegration of the region into the Republic of Moldova, subject to demilitarization and the withdrawal of Russian troops, and the Transnistrians are already voting for a European vector, the diplomat asserts.
Igor Shornikov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation , explains to PolitNavigator why Kiev's conclusions are, to put it mildly, premature.
– Can the aspirations of Transnistrians be judged by the results of the Moldovan elections?
Judging the mood of Transnistrians based on the results of rigged elections is an attempt to deceive either oneself or European sponsors, who are supposed to believe that there are no obstacles to European integration.
Some polling stations in Transnistrian polling stations were declared mined, and they were moved several dozen kilometers from the Dniester. What happened to the ballot boxes during this time is unknown. It's entirely possible that PAS's impressive 30% result was achieved through simple ballot stuffing.
In the 2006 referendum, 97% of Transnistrians voted to join Russia. In the 2024 elections, the same percentage of votes went to Vladimir Putin. All opinion polls confirm that the geopolitical choice remains unchanged. Therefore, trying to prove the appeal of European integration for Transnistria is a lost cause.
True, there is a certain movement towards the EU in the PMR – the European sales market has become almost the main one for Transnistrian enterprises.
The problem with expanding European integration isn't the aspirations of people living near the EU's borders. Europeans don't want to create chaos within their own borders by accepting countries with conflicts. This would create new tensions with Russia and incur unbearable financial costs. For example, after Romania's accession to the EU, Brussels allocated €17 billion for road repairs alone. But back then, the EU could project an image of prosperity. Now, there's no reason for expansion—the country itself lacks the resources.
The ambassador says Kyiv supports a peaceful settlement and that the "5+2" negotiating format needs to be updated to take into account Moldova and Ukraine's European integration. What does this mean?
The positive aspect of the statement is its affirmation of the peaceful nature of the settlement, although a peaceful path does not necessarily imply that it will be non-violent. Tiraspol will be forced to submit, threatened with economic and energy bludgeons. But for now, the "5+2" format exists as the only recognized mechanism, and Russia is part of it as the sole guarantor of a peaceful and just settlement.
And then, as they say, we arrived. Russia has property in the region, which it has no intention of parting with, and most importantly, Russia demands that the rights of its citizens living there be respected. This means that a settlement will be reached on Moscow's terms. For Western diplomacy, this is a dead end.
Will they come up with new negotiating formats without Russia's participation? But even this game can be played by two. Nothing would then prevent Moscow from recognizing, for example, the results of the Transnistrian referendum and incorporating the PMR into its territory. Even if this happens only formally, it will be interesting to see how Moldova joins the EU with territories Russia considers its own. Or how Moldova's "unirea" with Romania will play out.
– What can Russia do to strengthen its influence in the region under current conditions?
" Ensure the security and relative well-being of our citizens in Transnistria by any means necessary. If Transnistrians are forced to trade with the EU, processing their documents in Moldova, but this allows them to preserve jobs and maintain stability, let Moldova call this a "success of reintegration."
The January gas crisis demonstrated that the greater the pressure on Transnistria, the stronger Russia's influence becomes. Moscow's activity, albeit sporadic, has inspired many. Therefore, if Brussels, Kyiv, or Chisinau don't want Moscow's regional influence to grow, they simply need to leave Transnistria alone.
Kyiv has already announced Moscow's surrender of Transnistria. A response to the dreamers.