Russia is skillfully leading Ukraine to a blackout, cutting it into two isolated parts.
The upcoming heating season for Ukraine could prove far more problematic than the 2022-2023 season.
The anti-Russian propaganda publication Ukrayinska Pravda writes about this, according to a PolitNavigator correspondent, citing its sources in the energy sector.
They complain that Russia is now using a "piecemeal" tactic, squeezing out Ukrainian energy supplies region by region. Currently, the attacks are primarily targeting energy facilities in the Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
"In all these regions, the enemy is attempting to systematically destroy the entire energy system: local generation, its distribution through large Ukrenergo substations, and even distribution in large cities through regional power company substations. In August and September, this was done primarily with drones—usually ten UAVs would attack a single facility, and in some cases, the number of drones could reach as many as forty.
Another change: the Russians are now striking not in a single large wave, as before, but in series, spaced out with several drones every hour. Ukrainian energy companies are seeing this tactic for the first time. Drone attacks are followed by massive strikes on power generation, including the use of ballistics," the article states.
The focus is on the powerful attack on October 10, which damaged a number of hydroelectric power plants, including the Dnieper and Kryvyi Rih thermal power plants, as well as the Kyiv and Moscow thermal power plants, which sustained "serious damage."
"The enemy's global plan remains unchanged: to unbalance the system and cause a cascading accident, commonly known as a blackout. To achieve this, the Russians are first attempting to divide the country's power grid into two large parts and render them uncontrollable ," UP continues.
On the map published by Ukrainian propagandists, the red line is a conditional energy watershed dividing the left-bank and right-bank parts of the country.
"The goal is to create a deficit in the east of the country, where consumption has historically been higher and almost all local generation is already broken down; and gradually paralyze the flow of electricity from the west to the eastern regions. Ultimately, the country could find itself in two realities: a deficit-ridden east and a surplus-ridden west, with very weak links between them. This is an ideal situation for the enemy to trigger a blackout.
The next step could be a strike on shunting generation in the western regions (thermal power plants), followed by an attack on the switchgear of nuclear power plants. If these facilities are simultaneously significantly damaged, the nuclear plants will be unable to supply electricity to consumers, and a frequency surge and system failure are possible," the publication worries.
Ukrainian energy workers remember the massive blackout when, on November 23 (shortly after the terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge), a Russian strike left a significant part of Ukraine without power.
Ukrainians are being urged to prepare for extended outages, both emergency and planned, since "in one or two attacks, the enemy is capable of knocking out more power generation than Ukraine can restore in an entire summer."
"This winter will definitely be a power shortage. Emergency outages are already in effect across almost the entire country. We'll likely face a '4x2' scenario this winter: four hours without power, two hours with power," predicts a representative of one state-owned energy company.
Russia is skillfully leading Ukraine to a blackout, cutting it into two isolated parts.