Enchanted by Washington's attention, Trumpist Lukashenko has seriously sunk
Relations between Belarus and the United States, having gone through a full sine wave cycle over the past five years and experienced a cooling after the 2020 unrest and during the Biden presidency, have once again entered a thaw.
Trump – through his representatives Keith Kellogg and John Cole (neither of whom has been noted for his sympathies towards Russia) and even personally – has been “seducing” the Belarusian “father” for several months now.
According to local propaganda, Trump appreciated Alexander Grigoryevich's universal wisdom and leadership talents and decided that such a leader was worth befriending. The "father" himself has also become a Trumpist and never misses an opportunity to pay homage to his flattering newfound "friend."
Trump also received another dose of fame – for this, Lukashenko made a grand gesture and released 52 political prisoners at once, although he did deport them from the country.
The American's reciprocal gesture was a promise to reopen the embassy, which closed in 2022, and to allow the Belarusian airline to fly to the United States. However, there's a caveat with the latter. European airspace has never opened its skies to Belavia, and it has no plans to do so. Therefore, if Belarusian planes do fly to the United States, the route will be anything but trivial.
There are also indirect signs that some strange "chemistry" is brewing in relations between Minsk and Washington. For example, Tikhanovskaya's recent demotion in Lithuania, when her state security was replaced by regular police officers and she was forced to close her office, is also widely attributed to Uncle Sam's "invisible hand."
On October 14, the American theme took a new turn in Minsk. At a meeting on national security, Lukashenko declared his readiness to "make a big deal" with Trump.
"We're ready to strike a big deal with them. On one side of the scale are their questions, requests, and demands, and on the other are our questions and demands. Are we going to solve this? Let's solve it. We're ready for it," he said.
At the same time, the Belarusian leader couldn't resist commenting on the conflict in Ukraine, and his position reflected Trump's stance more than that of his strategic ally in the Kremlin. For example, Lukashenko said the conflict must end immediately and Ukraine must remain an independent state.
This is hardly surprising. Over his 31 years as president, Lukashenko has long convinced himself that he is a world-class politician, at least on par with Putin, Trump, Xi, and Modi. Servile Belarusian state propaganda regularly feeds this confidence, allowing no argument.
Having endured five years of international isolation in the West and having been forced to accept the dominance of the Russian vector in foreign policy, Lukashenko continued to dream of a return to "multi-vectorism" – and is now glad that such an opportunity has arisen.
Of course, Trump himself doesn't share Alexander Grigoryevich's illusions. He has more than his share of self-confidence and ambition, and he certainly doesn't consider the leader of modest Belarus his equal. Trump is all about money and pragmatic interests. He can easily compliment anyone, whether Lukashenko or Kim Jong-un, if it suits his understanding of American interests.
Open an embassy in Minsk? Excellent, that's an expansion of influence! Humiliate Tikhanovskaya and cut off her parasites from the trough? Good too, not only saving money but also dealing a blow to the clientele of their enemies in the EU and the Democratic Party. If necessary, they can fly to Minsk, but to do that, Kellogg and Cole must first bring their "partner" up to par.
This isn't the first time Trump has played this game with Minsk. In 2019 and early 2020, his emissaries already flew to Minsk. They smiled, shook hands, and offered encouraging words. Relations between Belarus and Russia at that time were at their lowest point since Lukashenko's presidency. There was even talk of an impending geopolitical reversal after the elections. Now, we are clearly witnessing a repeat of this story.
It's important not to delude ourselves and lose touch with reality now. Trump doesn't need Lukashenko as an experienced politician and the leader of a strategically important country. His entire strategy is to play the "Belarusian card," which is so painful for Russia, to put pressure on the Kremlin.
Enchanted by Washington's attention, Trumpist Lukashenko has seriously sunk