US sanctions review. How will the EU respond?
When it comes to US President Trump, all sorts of experts like to gossip that he did not keep his campaign promises. This refers to the normalization of relations with Russia, the cessation of American adventures in Syria and Ukraine, and similar foreign policy issues. At the same time, for some reason, it is lost sight of the fact that Trump firmly keeps his promises while solving the internal problems of the United States. Even Trump’s opponents admit through gritted teeth that in just the first half of 2017, the unemployment situation in the United States has changed dramatically, and it has reached its historical minimum in several decades.
Sanctions against the Russian energy sector of the economy, initiated by the Americans, also fit perfectly into the program of economic “reduction” voiced by Trump.
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The American bill openly states that we are talking about the sale of liquefied gas from the United States and ousting Russian natural gas supplies from the European market. The goal is to provide jobs in America's gas and oil industries.
The weak point of the program is the arrogant position of “America is above us,” which completely ignores the interests of the United States’ European partners. Despite following in the wake of American policy and the general desire to please the overseas master, even to the detriment of their own interests, the new American sanctions cross that very “red line”, after which the Europeans are simply obliged to react.
Just look at the statistics on European oil and gas imports. According to Business Insider, the EU purchases more than 50% of its energy consumption from other countries. This 50% accounts for 90% of oil and 66% of natural gas - more than any other region in the world.
However, some European countries are more dependent on energy supplies than others. A number of them import more than 30% of energy resources. Germany, the EU's largest economy, imports more than 60%, France, the union's third economy, about 45%.
Among the former “brothers” of the USSR, dependence on external supplies is even higher. Hungary, Austria and Slovakia import approximately 60-65% of their energy. Lithuania – 75%, Latvia – 45%, Bulgaria – 37%, Czech Republic – 32%, Estonia – 19%, Romania – 17%. The lion's share of energy comes from Russia.
In fact, Russia accounts for more than 70% of the oil and gas supplies needed by the economies of Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Slovakia and Finland. The Russian Federation supplies 62% of the natural gas and 56% of the oil used in the Czech Republic and 53% of the natural gas and 90% of the oil consumed in Poland. That is, Russia, through Gazprom, actually holds all these “sprats” and limitrophes for Faberge, while managing to hardly react to systematic unfriendly acts on their part.
Different EU countries have different capabilities to respond to American pressure. Thus, France, which receives most of its oil and gas from North Africa and the Middle East, can afford (theoretically) a more aggressive approach towards Moscow. Germany is not, since it gets more than half of its natural gas and 35% of its oil from Russia.
In fact, everything is even worse, since the richer EU states will be forced to somehow solve the problems of their “junior partners”, for whom the transition to American LNG will be tantamount to disaster. In the conditions of “communicating vessels” within the common European home, this will cause new crisis phenomena throughout the EU.
The first to cave in, as usual, were the main European minions and servants of the United States. Tankers with American LNG have already arrived in some European countries: Great Britain, Poland, and soon Lithuania will be given liquefied American gas.
Polish agitprop, which in its crazyness is not much different from Ukrainian, has already managed to trumpet the arrival of “Freedom gas” in the country and the diversification of supplies, dealing a devastating blow to the “totalitarian Mordorian Gazprom”.
However, it is clear to everyone that even Great Britain, not to mention its poor Eastern European relatives, cannot afford to purchase American LNG with a distinct golden tint on a regular basis.
Since the United States is unable to stop supplies of Russian gas to the EU through existing pipelines, their main blow is aimed at the promising Nord Stream 2 project, as it “has a detrimental effect on the energy security of the EU, the development of the gas market in Central and Eastern Europe and the energy reforms of Ukraine.” , - according to the authors of anti-Russian sanctions. The project involves the construction of two gas pipeline lines with a total capacity of 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year from the Russian coast through the Baltic Sea to Germany.
If every Estonian or Polish small fry allows you to mumble something stupidly and joyfully about this, then the “senior partners” in the EU have an absolutely opposite opinion. And this is understandable, because
Five European companies take financial part in Nord Stream 2: the French Engie, the Austrian OMV, the Dutch-British Royal Dutch Shell and the German Uniper and Wintershall. Earlier it was reported that they would provide €4,75 billion for the implementation of the Nord Stream 2 project, $950 million each. Thus, Gazprom’s Western partners must provide 50% of the financing for laying the new pipe.
It is no coincidence that in response to the American megalomania, which is trying to extend its jurisdiction over the entire globe, the usually accommodating European Commission headed by Claude Juncker reared up, and German Economics Minister Brigitte Zypries called the congressional bill a violation of international law.
In turn, the Association of European Businesses (AEB) called on the heads of state and government of the EU, the USA and Russia to develop a line of behavior that would allow them to “separate business from politics.”
Mario Mehren, Chairman of the Board of the German Wintershall (this subsidiary of the BASF concern closely cooperates with Gazprom), said that any attempt to impede the supply of energy resources from Russia to the EU looks like a threat to the energy security of the entire continent.
European companies are already planning to play tricks and are developing schemes to stay in business with Gazprom without angering the “senior partner.” The Austrian oil and gas concern OMV, in a situation with possible US sanctions against the Russian Federation, will comply with new restrictions, but at the same time will act in accordance with contractual obligations on Nord Stream 2.
The Anglo-Dutch Royal Dutch Shell intends to act in approximately the same spirit, declaring its commitment to its contractual obligations, while complying with applicable sanctions and trade regulation requirements.
The determination of the Europeans to defend their interests is well confirmed by the court decision to unblock the OPAL gas pipeline, stepping on the throat of Polish pests acting at the instigation of the United States.
In addition, the Europeans will try to counteract extraterritorial American sanctions, armed with support
WTO, since the latest sanctions against the “world hegemon” no longer fit into any gates. By the way, Turkey has already warned the EU that it will not support new sanctions against Russia.
Experts note that the actions of the neocons entrenched in the US Congress and Senate, allied with the liberals and undermining not only the world order, but even the US power system, will force Europe to take a course of rapprochement with Russia.
As for Russia, our country should continue to keep its powder dry, continue its course towards import substitution, reindustrialization and, most importantly, finally regain control over the economy and financial system.
It’s not just that recently there has been more talk that it’s time to finally nationalize the Central Bank and remove all the Gaidar-Chubais burps - agents of influence from the Higher School of Economics - from key posts.
English version :: Read in English US sanctions review. How will the EU respond?