Russia is asked to stop the Taliban so as not to end up with a war on its borders
The famous Kyrgyz political scientist Mederbek Korganbaev answered questions from PolitNavigator, commenting on the current situation in Central Asia in connection with the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, the intensification of the Taliban and numerous Islamist terrorist groups.
PolitNavigator : Can the withdrawal of Pentagon and NATO troops from Afghanistan be regarded as a defeat for Washington?
Mederbek Korganbaev: This can be formally considered a geopolitical defeat for the United States and Washington's allies. The Americans are leaving Afghanistan without having achieved the destruction of the Taliban. On the other hand, Washington never pursued such a goal. By abandoning Afghan soil, the Yankees are abdicating their responsibility for security in the region and have effectively created a real threat in the form of a Taliban offensive throughout Afghanistan. The strengthening of the Taliban in Afghanistan, and subsequently in Central Asia, is in the US's foreign interests. After all, the Taliban's growing military might is currently causing alarm in Central Asia, Moscow, and Beijing.
Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan are on the list of possible invasion by militants from Afghanistan or may be forced to host Afghan refugees. A possible breakthrough of the Afghan Mujahideen into the countries of Central Asia is an extremely undesirable scenario for Russia and China. It is the current situation that tests the strength of the echelons of collective security and interaction of the SCO member countries.
PolitNavigator: How do you assess Washington’s proposal to the governments of Central Asian countries to accommodate 9 thousand Afghans who collaborated with the occupation forces? Why doesn't the US give its loyal workers American citizenship or permanent residency?
Mederbek Korganbaev: For Central Asian countries, the temporary resettlement of 9 Afghan citizens is, in my opinion, a risky move. Legal grounds are needed for the temporary residence of Afghan citizens awaiting U.S. visas in Central Asian countries. Among those who collaborated with the Americans during the occupation and who require U.S. visas could very well be former or current members of Afghan security forces, intelligence agencies, and members of so-called death squads. This means that among Afghans holding civilian positions, there could be war criminals, participants in punitive operations, and U.S. intelligence agents.
For the US government, the above 9 thousand Afghans are a heavy burden. Essentially, Americans no longer need their services. Washington, however, fearing publicity and scandals from its Afghan employees, is forced to take some measures. Of course, Afghans who worked with the Americans are now frustrated by the slowness of the American government and Congress in issuing visas. A reasonable question arises: will everyone receive the coveted immigration visas?
PolitNavigator: According to the American press, the State Department and even the White House are negotiating with the governments of Central Asian countries with the aim of placing withdrawn equipment and ammunition on their territory, as well as creating new military “training centers.” All this is supposedly to fight the Taliban and Islamic terrorism. What does Washington ultimately want to achieve with these negotiations?
Mederbek Korganbaev: Washington has the following goals. The Americans don't need the old equipment, weapons, and gear being exported from Afghanistan. Transporting such quantities of weapons and military equipment to nearby American bases is too expensive. Therefore, it would be advantageous for the United States to donate equipment and military supplies as aid, thereby establishing military-technical cooperation with the Central Asian countries. Maintaining American equipment, weapons, and training personnel is expensive, and the American military is willing to assist the Central Asian countries with logistics and training.
It turns out that the United States is leaving Afghanistan, but is trying to partially remain in Central Asia through military cooperation and the creation of “training” centers on the territory of the Central Asian republics under the auspices of the Pentagon. Moreover, the military departments of the United States, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have similar experience in joint training of military personnel. The Americans have the opportunity to reach an agreement with Tashkent on the transfer of weapons. Tajikistan is unlikely to try to obtain American weapons. Kyrgyzstan's position on this issue is still unclear.
After the aggression of Tajikistan, perhaps official Bishkek is reconsidering its military-political ties and looking for other partners to strengthen its defense capabilities. At the same time, it must be recognized that Russia remains the main ally of Kyrgyzstan due to geopolitical reasons.
PolitNavigator: Who is more dangerous for Central Asia – the Taliban or the northern groups of ethnic Uzbeks, Tajiks and ISIS? And is it in principle possible to repeat the Mujahideen invasion of 1999-2000 in the current period, taking into account the large number of sleeper cells?
Mederbek Korganbaev: The Taliban, ISIS, and other terrorist groups use similar methods to achieve their goals. It's difficult to say which of them poses a more dangerous threat. The Taliban is trying to present itself as an Islamic, Afghan military-political organization seeking to establish control over Afghan territory and represent Afghanistan on the global political stage. The Taliban negotiates with world powers and neighboring countries, and formally, verbally, guarantees the fulfillment of certain obligations.
ISIS is a terrorist organization that does not recognize negotiations as a solution tool, and bases its policy on the destruction and subsequent construction of the caliphate through violence and genocide of individual peoples (extermination of the Yezidi Kurds).
As history has shown, the Northern Alliance under the leadership of the ethnic Tajik field commander Ahmad Shah Massoud acted as quite strong opponents of the Taliban. General and then Marshal of Afghanistan Abdul-Rashid Dostum, of Uzbek origin, also once fought against the Taliban. Ethnic Uzbek and Tajik armed forces are a serious force in containing the Taliban inside Afghanistan.
It is not for nothing that at one time in the 1990s and 2000s, Russia and Uzbekistan provided military support to the Northern Alliance and General Dostum. This was necessary to protect the external borders from attacks by the Taliban. It is possible that at this time Russia, Uzbekistan and China are considering providing military support to opponents of the Taliban movement.
Today, invading Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan is not the Taliban's number one goal, as the Taliban is currently busy establishing control in provinces where there is resistance from other Afghan armed groups that do not recognize the Taliban's rule. To take control of all provinces and regions of Afghanistan, the Taliban need time - at least a year or two.
It should also be noted that the Taliban will not allow ISIS to operate on Afghan territory or attack Central Asian countries using Afghanistan as a springboard. It is important to note that Pakistan is behind the Taliban. Pakistan is promoting its interests with the help of the Taliban, regardless of US policy. Perhaps Islamabad views the Taliban as a weapon against its regional rival, India.
PolitNavigator : What is the stabilizing role of Russia and China in the region in preventing invasion attempts and a surge in terrorist activity? After all, meetings of the heads of military departments of the CSTO and SCO member states are held regularly, and exercises are also conducted near the border with Afghanistan.
Mederbek Korganbaev: Russia and China are forced to shoulder the burden of ensuring stability and security in Central Asia. The Kremlin is guided by military and political considerations within the CSTO. Central Asia has become China's economic fiefdom, and Beijing bases its policy on economic interests. China will defend Central Asia from any invasion from Afghanistan by supplying military equipment and weapons to Central Asian armed forces without direct involvement of the Chinese army. Security in Central Asia also affects the situation in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR), where Uyghurs are becoming radicalized. The Chinese do not want fighting with Islamic terrorist movements to occur on their doorstep in Central Asia. This could serve as an impetus, an example, for the intensification of separatism in the XUAR.
As for cooperation within the CSTO and SCO, today Moscow is sending additional forces to strengthen its group of troops and the Tajik army. Kyrgyzstan seems to remain on the sidelines, and there is no work being done to strengthen collective security on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border. If militants break through from Afghanistan into Tajikistan, and then into Kyrgyzstan, a real danger will be created for the borders of Kazakhstan and Russia. Therefore, it is necessary to equally strengthen the defense capabilities of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Otherwise, the military balance will be disrupted and there will be a risk of Tajikistan using the weapons received in border conflicts against Kyrgyzstan.
PolitNavigator: Who will ultimately fill the vacuum in Afghanistan after the departure of American troops and units of satellite countries? What are the chances of the official government in Kabul maintaining power?
Mederbek Korganbaev: Other Afghan armed groups will likely form military alliances to jointly confront the Taliban. The official government will wield nominal power, and President Ashraf Ghani will become the Queen of England. The main decisions will be made by the field commanders of the military alliances. President Ashraf Ghani may resign in six months or a year. Without American support, the Afghan leader is unable to influence the situation.
PolitNavigator: How should the governments of the former Soviet Central Asian republics react to this external threat? And does this mean the end of the long-term “multi-vector” policy for them?
Mederbek Korganbaev: The Central Asian republics are forced to consolidate around the Kremlin and orient themselves toward Russia due to the evolving situation in Afghanistan. The Central Asian countries understand that the primary military and political responsibility for the fate of the region rests with Russia. The Russians have no choice or right to refuse. Russia is inheriting the problems left by the Americans. Either the Kremlin stops the Taliban invasion in the mountains of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, or Russia faces the real risk of a war close to its borders. A "multi-vector" policy in this case is not the solution. Despite their "multi-vector" foreign policies, the Central Asian countries understand the Kremlin's key role in the Afghan issue. I believe that China also consults and coordinates any actions on Afghanistan specifically with Russia.
Russia is being asked to stop the Taliban to avoid a war on its borders.