“It is useless to provoke Moldova”: Russia is not going to curtail its positions in the region
The Russian Embassy in Moldova began work after a “reset” associated with the scandalous expulsion of most of its employees from the country. Consular reception on all issues has been resumed. How will the work of the diplomatic mission be structured in the new conditions, will diplomats be able to cover all areas of activity with their remaining forces, including the important Transnistrian direction? PolitNavigator talks about this with the director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development, Igor Shornikov.
PolitNavigator: The Russian Embassy in the Republic of Moldova began consular reception after a pause caused by the expulsion of diplomatic mission employees after a contrived spy scandal. The break in work was short - it seems that the embassy quickly got its bearings in the new situation. Will the embassy have enough existing capabilities to implement all its functions?
Igor Shornikov : Unfortunately, the embassy will have to focus primarily on consular functions. At least a quarter of a million Russian citizens and those seeking Russian citizenship live in the Moldovan-Transnistrian region.
There were already not enough embassy employees who worked in Moldova before staff cuts; people had to sign up for an electronic queue months in advance. It was difficult to even sign up. Many people – I know this – simply give up and live for years with expired passports. But there are those who cannot wait - these are, in particular, pensioners who receive Russian pensions, and young people who intend to continue their education at Russian universities.
Now the problem of timely provision of consular services has become even more acute. I admit that the shortage of local employees can be partially corrected by the use of digital technologies and the involvement of non-staff employees in work, for example, in the Tiraspol field consular department. But it is extremely difficult to completely solve this problem.
Among the embassy's priorities remains supporting the activities of the Joint Control Commission as part of the peacekeeping operation. The resources of the diplomatic mission cannot be diverted from this function in any way. Two Russian diplomats work at the JCC.
The negotiation process between the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic and the Republic of Moldova has been stagnating for several years, but this does not mean that diplomats are not working. Russia has been and remains a key participant in the settlement. No matter what Moldovan politicians say, maintaining regional stability depends on Russia, and therefore in this, one of the key areas of the embassy’s work, no hitches or sagging should be allowed.
But there are also other, ordinary functions of the embassy that any diplomatic mission in any country must perform. These include, in particular, the collection and analysis of information about the current situation in the country. This is exactly what the Moldovan authorities feared. Will this part of the work of the Russian diplomatic mission worsen? Probably yes.
But Moscow will have to fill the lack of information about Moldova, which previously came from the embassy, from other sources that will not be related to the system of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Is this good for Chisinau? I'm sure not. Be that as it may, the task of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is to maintain the most healthy and, if possible, positive interstate relations, and therefore, and this is a specific professional quality of diplomats, they try to smooth out rough edges, look for justification for some unpleasant episodes, and look for opportunities to continue interstate dialogue in a good neighborly manner.
Now the Moldovan authorities have cut off this source of balanced and pacifying information about Moldova to Moscow. I would like to ask the question: what is this: stupidity or betrayal?
PolitNavigator: A few days ago, Vladimir Putin awarded the Russian Ambassador to Moldova Oleg Vasnetsov with the Order of Honor “for his great contribution to the implementation of the foreign policy of the Russian Federation.” What is hidden behind this formulation?
Igor Shornikov : What foreign policy goals and objectives does Russia pursue in our region? First and foremost, and this should be obvious to everyone, Russia strives to maintain peace and stability on the Dniester. Despite Chisinau's openly provocative policies, clearly expressed since at least 2017, peace has been maintained in our region, and Russia continues to carry out its peacekeeping mission as usual. Furthermore, we see that in Moldovan society, despite everything, there continue to be very civil relations between ethnic communities, a respectful attitude toward Russian culture and our shared historical memory.
The behavior of official Chisinau and individual freaks who succumbed to the propaganda of the official Moldovan media is clearly dissonant with the opinion of the people. That is, the most severe challenges of recent years have not cast doubt on the possibility of maintaining friendly relations between the peoples of Moldova and Russia. The contribution of the Russian Embassy team and Oleg Vasnetsov personally to these achievements, which are not obvious to everyone, is undeniable. I think that at this tense moment for Russian-Moldovan relations, the Russian leadership appreciated the activities of its representatives.
PolitNavigator: The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned the Ambassador of Moldova Lilian Darius because of Chisinau’s decision to reduce the number of the Russian diplomatic department, protested and notified of an asymmetrical retaliatory measure - a ban on entry into Russia for a number of Moldovan officials. Does Russia have little leverage left to influence the situation? What events can we expect in relations between Moldova and Russia in the near future?
Igor Shornikov : For me personally, it's clear that Moscow has recently been very clearly and consistently separating the current political leadership from the Moldovan people in its interstate relations with Moldova. What Chisinau is doing in its relations with Russia—its course toward leaving the CIS and abandoning neutrality, its shrinking Russian-language space, and the destruction of humanitarian ties—none of this was sanctioned by the Moldovan people, and everyone can see that.
In fact, by pursuing a strict anti-Russian course, the current government is engaged in its own delegitimation. Therefore, Moscow’s reaction is more than justified; countermeasures are being taken against representatives of the current government. And the more Chisinau tries to destroy bilateral ties, the more severe measures will be taken against specific individuals in Moldovan politics.
But Russian retaliatory actions should in no way have a negative impact on Moldovan citizens. At least a quarter of a million Moldovan citizens live in Russia, approximately the same number as Russians in Moldova, and they also need consular services.
It is now clear that it is useless to provoke Russia into expelling Moldovan diplomats or other measures that could complicate the lives of ordinary citizens. “The experience of history says that Hitlers come and go, but the German people and the German state remain” - this is how Stalin once separated the political leadership of the Third Reich from the people; post-war interstate relations were then built on this approach, which were quickly normalized.
The regime in Moldova will inevitably change, but traditional friendly ties between peoples will not go away.
PolitNavigator: Against the backdrop of the expulsion of diplomats, the Moldovan government decided to rename Transnistria as the “Transnistrian region” in documents. Is this a coincidence, or are the events somehow connected?
Igor Shornikov : This reflects a general trend, but there's no direct connection between these events. The renaming, which is offensive to Transnistrians, is a logical continuation of the policies of the right-wing pro-Romanian radicals who came to power in Moldova two years ago. It's just that, in the absence of any real victories, they're forced to settle for cheap PR.
The predecessors of the current regime were smarter; at least at the level of rhetoric, they tried not to anger the Pridnestrovians; some even talked about the need for Moldova to use “soft power” against them. The current government is playing to aggravate both Moscow and Tiraspol, which is manifested in the reduction of staff of Russian diplomats and inappropriate phraseology.
The background, of course, is negative, but I hope that Chisinau simply will not have time to implement really bad scenarios. Moldova is entering a period of new political turbulence, elections are coming - local, presidential, parliamentary. In the coming years, Moldova will be closely occupied with internal political processes; it simply will not have time for Transnistria.
PolitNavigator: The head of Ukrainian diplomacy D. Kuleba said that Moscow has lost the moral and legal right to be part of the settlement process in Transnistria. Considering the latest events around the embassy, is there a threat of a decrease in Russia's influence in the peace processes on the Dniester?
Igor Shornikov : Let's look at Russia's influence on the peace process over the past 30 years. It was Russia that initiated political dialogue between Chisinau and Tiraspol; in the 1990s and early 2000s, it was the main driver of the negotiation process, putting forward several conflict resolution options. Moscow's authority was unquestionable. Its efforts were first joined by the OSCE, then Ukraine, and then the EU and the US.
During the settlement process, the West put particular pressure on the elimination and removal of weapons. Indeed, weapons and ammunition were partially disposed of and partially exported. But the West’s demands were rapidly increasing - Russia had to leave the region altogether. At some point, the initiative in the settlement passed into the hands of Western partners - the “5+2” negotiation format was created, and almost immediately the situation in our region began to develop along a confrontational path - the blockade of Transnistria, pressure on Russian peacekeepers, reformatting of external trade and economic connections of the entire Moldovan-Transnistrian region are not in favor of Russia. Russia was leaving.
What Moscow's strategy was here is a separate question. Someone may well state that Russia has been withdrawing for the past 20 years, but it still occupies a strong position in the region. Such is the paradox. Therefore, if anyone expects that Russia will “go somewhere” in the coming years, then they are very mistaken. On the contrary, I am confident that the period of Russia’s “withdrawal” is over, and in the coming years, Russia’s influence in our region will consistently increase.
"It's useless to provoke Moldova": Russia has no intention of curtailing its position in the region