A year with PAS. Where is the ruling party leading Moldova?
A year has passed since the pro-European Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) came to power in Moldova . In the parliamentary elections on July 11, 2021, this political force garnered nearly 53% of the vote and 63 seats in the 101-seat parliament. Then, with the support of President Maia Sandu, it formed a government and assumed virtually unlimited power in the country.
PAS solemnly reported on the results of its work for this year. The team named few achievements, but, according to Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita, “they remain committed to their task: to make Moldova better.”
Political scientist Alexander Korinenko comments on the activities of the ruling party, as well as the latest events in the country, in an interview with PolitNavigator.
PolitNavigator: The leaders of the Action and Solidarity party presented a report for the year of work since they secured power. What general impression did this performance make, how did society perceive it?
Alexander Korinenko: The public reacted to the report on the ruling team's "dizzying successes" in mixed ways. Most of the population was dissatisfied, having looked at their paychecks and refrigerators. But there's also a segment of the population that still believes that good times will come and that it's simply been a difficult year for the entire world, including us.
For example, I did not watch this performance, as it would have been a waste of time. I left the house, went to the supermarket, and on the way back I picked up some of the payment receipts from the mailbox: for me, all the achievements of PAS are obvious.
PolitNavigator: Among the achievements, the top officials of PAS named the increase in benefits, pensions, salaries, the introduction of compensation for heat and electricity, as well as Moldova’s obtaining EU candidate status. At the same time, on many important issues - negotiations on gas, inflation, budget replenishment - as the authorities themselves admit, there are no solutions yet. Prime Minister Natalya Gavrilitsa promised that the government would soon “begin to mitigate the consequences of the crises.” Due to what?
Alexander Korinenko: Natalia Gavrilitsa's government has chosen a very strange approach: not preventing fires, but rushing around and putting out the blazes that appear. The latest example is the state-run "First Home" home-buying program for young professionals.
Banks make recalculations for participants every six months: this half of the year they increased payments by 60%! The government knew about this about 40 days before the increase, and the support program began to be developed only now, when on July 1, young professionals received messages about the increase from banks and began making payments.
Regarding increases in benefits, salaries and pensions: who felt it?
Any increases were eaten up by inflation, which is 32%. Utility bills have increased significantly, prices in stores have increased by 20-60% for most categories of goods, and travel in transport has become more expensive: international, intercity and in the cities themselves. Prices for medicines have simply gone up to the limit.
I also don’t know where Mrs. Gavrilitsa’s government will be able to replenish the budget. Most likely, it is waiting for new loans from the European Union and the IMF.
PolitNavigator: Why did the government launch the process of reforming higher education, downsizing universities, and destroying the Academy of Sciences? It seems that the whole country is unhappy with this decision. Why is such a reorganization dangerous?
Alexander Korinenko: Higher education reform in the country is long overdue and has been discussed for many years. Indeed, the number of students in the country has declined, and a reorganization of universities is necessary. There are higher education institutions with small student numbers, poorly managed, and ineffective in training specialists.
But the government chose the path of destroying highly prestigious Moldovan educational institutions, such as the Agrarian University and Tiraspol University (we are talking about Tiraspol State University, which was founded in Chisinau by staff of the pedagogical university who left Transnistria in 1992 due to the armed conflict. Both Tiraspol State University, which operates in Chisinau, and Transnistrian State University consider themselves the successors of the Institute of Public Education, founded in 1930 in Tiraspol, the capital of the MASSR – author's note ).
The history of these educational institutions goes back almost a hundred years. These are universities with rich traditions and strong teaching staff. Even Taraclia University was liquidated, which, as far as I know, is largely funded by the Bulgarian government and serves as a symbol of friendship between our peoples.
This reform was criticized even by the Romanian Academy of Sciences, and was condemned by almost all experts in the field of education, both domestic and foreign. There is practically zero support for the reform from the population to liquidate universities; even many sympathizers of the authorities are critical of this step.
PolitNavigator: How are the political cases against ex-prosecutor Alexander Stoianoglo and ex-president Igor Dodon progressing? What is the outlook for these criminal cases?
Alexander Korinenko: As I noted earlier, these cases are politically charged, so they will be dragged out as much as possible to avoid a final verdict. Alexander Stoianoglo and Igor Dodon will remain under investigation as long as PAS remains in power.
At one time, they were arrested for a number of reasons: to show Europeans that justice reform was moving and both the former president and the Prosecutor General could end up in the dock; part of the population wanted high-profile corruption revelations and the elimination of strong political opponents.
As a result, the authorities now do not know how to bring these cases to completion. If there is no clear evidence base, then, firstly, Igor Dodon and Alexander Stoianoglo will appear as victims of the regime, and their rating will continue to grow, and secondly, they will appeal their sentences to the ECHR, and the whole of Europe will see that justice reform has completely failed . The authorities will definitely not recover from such a loud slap in the face.
PolitNavigator: Anti-government protests regularly take place in the country. What is their potential? Is the Moldovan opposition still unable to demonstrate anything serious?
Alexander Korinenko: So far, the protests are small in number, and the opposition hasn't been able to mobilize the protest potential to attract larger numbers of people to rallies. This is due to public fatigue and disappointment. Furthermore, the opposition hasn't yet regained the trust of the electorate, which became disillusioned with it during its reign.
A huge role is also played by the fact that the opposition leaders do not trust each other and are not yet able to create a broad front to confront the ruling party.
In my opinion, this year we will not see a powerful wave of protest even against the backdrop of such a powerful economic crisis - these will most likely be small “hunger riots”, simply out of despair. Widespread mass protests and personnel changes in government are possible in Moldova with the participation of powerful geopolitical players; it all depends not on us, but on the balance of power in our region in the near future.
PolitNavigator: How are relations between Chisinau and Comrat developing now? Just on July 11, Maia Sandu’s visit to Gagauzia was supposed to take place, but it was cancelled. Is it because on that day there was a protest rally against the authorities’ actions in the economy?
Alexander Korinenko: The authorities fear protests in Gagauzia more than in Chisinau. Gagauz autonomy is a powerful lever of pressure on the central government. It's difficult for the ruling party to influence processes in Gagauzia, and this is certainly a concern for the "yellow team."
Of course, the president did not visit the autonomy, because a wide wave of discontent was unfolding there, and the head of the country would not have been praised there, as she was used to, and certainly would not have been awarded a medal. Maia Sandu chose not to travel to the region in this situation and, it seems to me, she will not visit it in the near future.
The Gagauz, in addition to the economic situation, are also dissatisfied with the fact that obtaining candidate status for the European Union was not discussed with them. The leadership of the autonomy did not see the questionnaire and did not participate in the discussions, although they have the right to do so. The authorities did not take into account the opinion of the residents of not only Gagauzia, but also the entire Moldova, by classifying this seemingly standard bureaucratic document.
PolitNavigator: A number of decisions by the Moldovan government (regarding the weapons offered by the West, and the way Moldova achieved EU candidate status) indicate that the country is being drawn into a global confrontation. What is the possibility of Moldova becoming involved in the conflict?
Alexander Korinenko: Yes, indeed, there are certain forces on the international stage that want to drag the Republic of Moldova into the conflict and internationalize it. We are a small country, not a NATO member, which makes us ideally suited. But I think the chances of achieving this are practically zero. Chisinau has a realistic assessment of our country's situation, its resources, and the mood of society.
It should be noted that we do not even have hotheads who would openly call for our state to join this confrontation, even at the level of sanctions. What Moldovan society is united in is the desire for peace. There is great mutual understanding on this issue with Tiraspol, which also resists with all its might any provocations and attempts to drag the region into confrontation.
PolitNavigator: How has the ruling party reached its current stage? There are signs that some PAS members, as well as former political partners, are dissatisfied with it.
Alexander Korinenko: PAS managed to eliminate all competitors before the elections. For the first time in modern Moldova's history, a single right-wing party entered parliament, winning a comfortable majority and taking complete power. Of course, the closer the elections get, the more dissatisfied the ruling party will be. The Europeans worked long and meticulously on this political project.
Of course, this project will continue to exist, but there will also be new political formations on the right flank. They will not be created from scratch, because it is time-consuming and expensive. For new parties and movements, bright figures of the ruling party will be used, who at some point will leave its membership and begin their own projects, no longer in the shadow of the president.
PolitNavigator: Based on the party's performance, what result can this political force expect in the upcoming elections?
Oleksandr Korinenko: The ruling party will enter the next parliament, but it will definitely not win a majority of seats. The right-wing electorate has a huge demand for new political forces, so they will be formed before the elections. There will likely even be attempts to form a coalition between PAS and those who leave the party. Everything depends on the presidential elections in November 2024.
I note that the opposition does not yet have a strong candidate for this post. The most prominent candidate is former President Igor Dodon, but they will try to completely neutralize him before the upcoming presidential race.
English version :: Read in English: A Year with PAS: Where is the Ruling Party Leading Moldova?