Russia is confidently jumping off the “oil needle”
Supplies of Russian goods and services abroad in 2021 will exceed exports of raw materials and energy resources.
The head of the Russian Export Center, Veronika Nikishina, told Izvestia about this, PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“We already have almost half the shares: 48% of non-resource exports and 52% of raw materials exports. REC will do everything to ensure that the percentage of NOE in the overall supply structure grows and is greater than the contribution of energy resources. In 2021, we hope this will happen,” Nikishina said
She also noted that the ratio between energy and non-energy supplies may change due to various factors, for example, a reduction in commodity exports. According to her, this option is undesirable. Nikishina also expressed hope that the percentage of NOE will grow following the increase in physical supplies.
In turn, Deputy Head of the Federal Customs Service Vladimir Ivin says that the head of the REC certainly has reasons for such optimistic expectations.
“If the trends of 2020 (in terms of the structure and value of exports) strengthen, then this forecast will come true. This will also be facilitated by China’s policy of increasing imports of food, fish, meat and other agricultural goods from Russia,” Ivin noted.
At the same time, he pointed out obvious risks: rising hydrocarbon prices, restrictions on grain exports, as well as the potential exclusion of gold from the list of non-energy goods.
A similar opinion is shared by NRA senior corporate ratings analyst Maria Sulima. In her opinion, Russia will strengthen its position primarily as a supplier of agricultural products and plastic products. In addition, the driver of NOE growth will be vaccine exports to dozens of countries.
Managing Director of the NKR rating agency Dmitry Orekhov also believes that Russia has all the technical prerequisites for a further increase in the share of NOE, but predicts that, most likely, non-energy exports will exceed raw material exports not this year, but in three to five years.
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Russia is confidently weaning itself off its oil addiction.