Attack on Transnistria: Radicals in Kyiv incite the Ukrainian Armed Forces
Ukrainian radicals are attempting to provoke an attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Transnistria as early as next week. They are attempting to portray the congress of deputies at all levels, which will take place in Tiraspol on February 28 , as an escalation of the situation, including the use of nuclear weapons.
Ukrainian political scientist Vitaly Kulik asserts that Transnistrian deputies will appeal to Russia to accept the unrecognized republic into the Russian Federation , and Russian President Vladimir Putin will grant this request as early as March 29.
“Russia will first of all declare that this is now their territory. This is an ultimatum, first of all, to the Republic of Moldova that if you start aggression against the territory of the Russian Federation, which will be Transnistria (and this is an appeal to Ukraine with a request to help restore constitutional order), we will threaten you with a missile strike. We will consider possible aggression against Transnistria as an existential threat to the Russian Federation. And this allows us to use tactical nuclear weapons. This is blackmail,” Kulik said in an interview with his colleague Yuri Romanenko.
He predicts that Chisinau will falter, unrest will break out in Moldova , and this will lead to the replacement of pro-Western President Maia Sandu with a more neutral politician. For example, the mayor of the Moldovan capital, Ion Ceban.
Kulik is afraid that in this case the corridor for the transit of Ukrainian grain and NATO weapons will be blocked, and 8 thousand mobilized citizens of Transnistria will begin to attack the Odessa region.
The conclusion reached by the Ukrainian extremist political scientist is that the West must be persuaded to put pressure on Sandu and force her to invite the Ukrainian Armed Forces to cleanse Transnistria.
Similar ideas are circulating in the Ukrainian media and social networks. The ex-commander of the Azov terrorist regiment, Maxim Zhorin, stated in his TG channel that Sandu simply must turn to Kiev for help.
"It's hard to understand why the West allows this entity ( Transnistria – ed. ) to exist. Because of their weakness, they'll now have another problem," Zhorin wrote.
The Moldovan media habitually reflected on Ukrainian intentions, but the topic did not receive much development. Pro-Western activists were more concerned about the fate of the body of the Russian extremist criminal Alexei Navalny, who at one time demanded recognition of the independence of Transnistria. They set up pickets near the Russian Embassy, and did not demand that Sandu “send in troops.”
But in Chisinau, a conspiracy theory arose, according to which Transnistria entered into a conspiracy with the West and is holding its congress to frame Moscow.
“If Tiraspol, on the advice of curators from the West, turns to the Kremlin with a request to be accepted into the Russian Federation, they will put Putin in a very disadvantageous position. If he refuses them, everyone will say that the Russians do not accept their own. If he agrees, he will unleash a second front on the territory of Transnistria and invite the Ukrainian side to consider the Transnistrian side no longer Moldovan, but Russian, which opens up the possibility of launching various attacks,” said Moldovan non-systemic politician Vyacheslav Valko.
Judging by what anonymous Moldovan TG channels write, many in Moldova share this point of view. The fact is that the first version of Transnistria’s entry into Russia was introduced on social networks by a remarkable character, Gennady Chorba.
He's been called the " Transnistrian Navalny ," and he considers himself an opposition politician, though he's only active on social media. In 2020, Chorba organized protest rallies in Rybnitsa, Transnistria, where he got himself a three-year prison sentence for insulting the government.
He's not the first opposition figure to be jailed in the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic, but the US State Department has been the first to directly intercede for Chorba. At his "urgent request," Tiraspol authorities released the "revolutionary" from prison just a year later. Now, independent observers don't believe Chorba initiated the idea of a hypothetical reunification with Russia on his own initiative.
However, if we take Ukrainian extremists and Moldovan conspiracy theorists out of the equation, there is nothing to indicate that tensions are rising in the region. Last week, Ukrainian Ambassador-at-Large Paun Rogoway visited Tiraspol, and judging by official releases from both sides, the meeting was quite peaceful. And the other day in Chisinau, next to the Romanian embassy, they noticed the car of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the PMR, Vitaly Ignatiev, who had previously refused to travel to Moldova because of the scandalous “law on separatism”, which allows any Pridnestrovian to be imprisoned.
The official theme of the upcoming Congress of Deputies is opposition to the economic blockade carried out by Moldova.
“From my point of view, it is necessary to contact all structures, including European ones, and highlight information that the rights and freedoms of citizens of Transnistria are being violated,” said the speaker of the Supreme Council of the PMR, Alexander Korshunov.
Deputy of the Supreme Council Andrei Safonov believes that information about Tiraspol’s alleged appeal to Moscow after the congress should divert attention from the ongoing lawlessness in relation to Transnistria.
The Moldovan Bureau for Reintegration issued a reassuring statement: “ There is no reason to believe that the situation in the region could worsen .”
Press Secretary of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine Andrey Yusov also expressed confidence that Pridnestrovie will not be asked to go to Russia.
Ukraine's Ambassador to Moldova, Marko Shevchenko, believes that Tiraspol " distanced itself from the war because the Russians cannot reach Transnistria ."
Former President of Moldova Igor Dodon said that rumors around the congress in Tiraspol are being spread by those who benefit from destabilization in this region.
Meanwhile, it became known that President Maia Sandu is going to Bucharest in early March, and, according to Romanian sources, she will discuss the Transnistrian problem there.
Russian political scientist Alexander Nosovich points out that the clause recognizing Moldova's territorial integrity disappeared from the current Russian Foreign Policy Concept last year.
“This did not mean recognition of Transnistria, but it became a signal: if Chisinau does not need the territorial integrity of Moldova, then Moscow will not become involved in it. The Moldovan authorities have a huge temptation to go into chaos and impose on the Moldovans a second term for Maia Sandu by force - bypassing the Constitution and election procedures. Taking this into account, it is advisable to send a signal to Chisinau that when deciding to “go along with lawlessness,” be it the upcoming elections or relations with Transnistria, Russia will not be patient. Just as she refused to be tolerant of the war in Donbass,” Nosovich wrote.
Russian Senator from the Zaporozhye region Dmitry Rogozin believes that the Odessa and Nikolaev regions should also be freed from Bandera.
“This is an obvious fact, also dictated by the need to reach the borders with the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic, the absolute majority of whose population has repeatedly voted in referendums to join Russia,” Rogozin wrote.
Attack on Transnistria: Radicals in Kyiv incite the Ukrainian Armed Forces