Transnistria is threatened by invasion by Ukraine, Moldova, Romania and France – expert forecast
The Moldovan government may well decide to invade Transnistria against the backdrop of the energy crisis in the country.
Ukrainian political scientist Ruslan Bortnik stated this on air on the Politeka video blog, as reported by a PolitNavigator correspondent.
"I wouldn't completely rule out a situation in which the Moldovan leadership , with the support of Western allies like France and Romania, might want to carry out this operation . There's also a purely economic rationale for this—the key power plant that supplies electricity to the entire left bank of Moldova is currently located in Transnistria and, in addition to the gas issue with Russia, serves as a tool for pressuring Moldova."
Therefore, Moldova has both a political and economic rationale today. This would also help suppress domestic opposition and divert attention from the energy crisis for a while. There's a rationale for such an operation. Ukraine could potentially also help, because the loss of Transnistria would reinforce the Syrian perception that Russia lacks the resources to support its external allies. It would also worsen Russia's negotiating position in the eyes of the new US administration . Therefore, there are motives; Ukraine has military capabilities; Moldova most likely does not, but France and Romania could help," Bortnik stated.
Transnistria faces invasion from Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, and France – expert forecast