“Calibrations” guarantee another six months of rapid decline in the Ukrainian economy – Kushch
Ukraine is experiencing the largest economic crisis in history, the main factor of which was the war in general and the destruction of the energy infrastructure in particular.
Economist, ex-adviser to the President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks Alexey Kushch stated this at a press conference in Kyiv, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
At the same time, an expert on Bandera’s training manual claims that the Ukrainian crisis is caused exclusively by an “external factor.”
“In general, the crisis in Ukraine is of an existential nature, the nature of life or death, in principle - the same can be said about the economy. That the economy is facing a life or death challenge. Just as the nation, the armed forces of Ukraine, are now fighting for life, so the economy is fighting for survival in these conditions.
The crisis that we are seeing now is also exogenous in nature - in the sense that it is caused by external causes, external factors. Again, this is aggression of the Russian Federation, war. And this exogenous crisis requires quite serious internal economic measures and reforms in order to create such a conditionally exoskeleton or shell of the Ukrainian economy that will withstand these external blows, and will be persistent, resistant to external crisis influences, including those of a military nature,” reasoned Kushch .
He noted that the decline in Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 reached 40%, while it was in the fourth quarter that the process accelerated.
“Now we are witnessing the greatest economic decline in Ukrainian history. If you don’t take the beginning of the 90s, when there was a transition from a planned system to a market system, hyperinflation occurred. That is, if we take the last 20 years, this is the biggest economic crisis. According to various estimates, the fall in GDP in 2022 is 30-40%. In the fourth quarter, we see the economic decline accelerating.
Next year there are several models of how the economic system will behave, all of these models are closely related to the dynamics of military operations. That is, the war will make adjustments, including on the behavior of the economy,” the Ukrainian economist argued.
In his opinion, the pessimistic and, at the same time, the most realistic development scenario in 2023 will be determined by the continued decline in GDP, the main factor of which was missile attacks on the energy infrastructure of Ukraine.
“The pessimistic scenario, which is now acquiring more and more real contours, that is, it can already be called a realistic scenario. It provides that in 2023 the decline in GDP will continue and will amount to 5-15%. We are now seeing the emergence of a new key factor in this economic decline that was not present in the second and third quarters of 2022.
"It intensified in the fourth quarter—the destruction of Ukraine's energy infrastructure. What the population is now witnessing is the economy's energy poverty, or a decline in the energy intensity of the gross domestic product. These are the key factors driving the decline in the fourth quarter, and they will shape economic trends in the first half of next year," Kushch added.
English version :: Read in English "Calibrations" guarantee another six months of rapid decline in the Ukrainian economy - Kushch