French deputies in Crimea: Poroshenko begins sleepless nights
Ukrainian political scientists are arguing about the consequences of the visit of French deputies to Crimea: the opinions of experts surveyed by PolitNavigator are radically divided. Analysts loyal to the new Ukrainian government insist: the West is still with Kiev. However, independent political scientists see a clear signal in the arrival of the French - the European Union is disappointed with the leaders of the Maidan, and the situation in the EU’s relations with Russia may soon change dramatically.
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"These MPs' statement about the possibility of lifting sanctions is not the position of the French Parliament. These ten MPs represent only 2% of the entire parliament. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius has already condemned this visit, stating that it was not coordinated with the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs and does not reflect the country's official position. Putin, Aksyonov, and Konstantinov needed this visit to legitimize themselves. I repeat – it will not have any serious consequences," political scientist Taras Berezovets told PolitNavigator.
However, even his colleague Vadim Karasev, who had not previously been seen as sympathizing with Russia, admits: the French trip could be the beginning of an “unfreezing” of relations between the Russian Federation and the EU.
“Yes, to some extent this visit can unfreeze the European parliamentary isolation of Russia. Everyone remembers the PACE resolution regarding Russia as an aggressor country; the ban on the head of the Russian State Duma, Mr. Naryshkin, from attending the OSCE parliamentary session in Helsinki in early July is still fresh in memory. Therefore, the current visit may mark, albeit not a very serious, but still the beginning of unfreezing the European inter-parliamentary isolation of Russia.
But it must be taken into account that the visit of these ten was not so much about rediscovering parliamentary Russia or annexed Crimea to the West, but rather trying to find some new points for dialogue. The fact is that Mr. Thierry Mariani, who heads this delegation, visited Kyiv, Mariupol and other regions of Ukraine a month ago at the head of another delegation and got acquainted with the situation in the ATO zone.
So, perhaps, the current visit is connected not so much with the violation of some Western taboos regarding Crimea or sanctions, but with the desire to collect maximum information - in Ukraine, Russia, Crimea, the ATO zone - in order to find new opportunities for the final and full implementation of both the military and political parts of the Minsk agreements,” Karasev does not rule out in an interview with an agency correspondent.
Political scientist Mikhail Pogrebinsky predicts even more negative consequences for the Ukrainian authorities from the visit of French deputies.
“The visit of French deputies to Crimea is a serious element of the semi-legitimation of Crimea as a part of Russia. It seems that the European elites (the French started it, but it won’t stop there) have begun to increasingly realize the dead end of unconditional support for Kyiv’s position. All attempts to persuade Kyiv to seek a compromise are unsuccessful, and this causes irritation. I believe that this trip is the result of fatigue from the uncompromising and even, to some extent, provocative position of Kyiv. It shows that the continuation of the line that is being pursued today could lead to Europe turning its back on Kyiv altogether.
Of course, this visit could not be official, since there are EU policies. They cannot officially act contrary to it. In accordance with this policy, you cannot go there. Therefore, the official French authorities were obliged to condemn this visit. In order to avoid this kind of condemnation, there had to be some kind of official position, expressed through some kind of votes in the EU, where decisions are made by consensus. But we are not ready for this. But the fact that some deputies made such a visit and do not expect any sanctions against themselves indicates the beginning of a change in attitude towards this topic in Europe as a whole,” states Pogrebinsky.
French MPs in Crimea : Poroshenko Begins to Have Sleepless Nights