A ban by the Russian government on the withdrawal of capital would lead to a sharp increase in GDP right now - economist
Attempts to adapt the Russian economy to the global one, instead of focusing on its internal development, naturally led to problems, however, nevertheless, taking into account the SVO and related factors, the year ends with small losses.
This was stated on air by the Soviet and Russian economist and entrepreneur , candidate of economic sciences , and since 2001 the head of the Union of Entrepreneurs and Tenants of Russia , Andrei Bunich, on the air of KP radio, as reported by a PolitNavigator correspondent.
The presenter recalled that Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced that Russia's GDP contraction by the end of the year would be less than 3% , and asked an expert to make a forecast for next year.
“This year, in March, I immediately said that the reduction would be very small, within a few percent, since the component analysis of GDP showed this. I don’t know why, someone was inventing some twenty percent declines. It did not follow in any way from a real analysis of GDP itself. Now it has been confirmed that it will be from 2% to 3%.
And then everything depends on the policy that Russia will pursue, because if you try to adapt to the world economy, then naturally this will cause a problem - because the world economy itself is in crisis, and this will create difficulties.
If we should have long ago, six months ago, moved to a new economy, accelerating economic growth, focused on internal development, in order to quickly create the industries that we need in the new conditions and pursue the same stimulating credit policy, then we should have had growth economic,” the expert noted.
“It should have been going on even now if there were no export of capital; if you look, the export of capital is colossal. Imagine, 250 billion came out of Russia, and still the economy did not fall. One can imagine what growth rates would have been in Russia if such an outflow of capital had not occurred. I believe that everything will depend on the line that the government follows. If he sticks to the right line, we will have growth,” Bunich shared his forecast.
A Russian government ban on capital outflows would lead to a sharp increase in GDP right now – economist