Explosions in Machulishchi. Ukrainian drones attacked Belarus?
In Belarus, probably the most serious incident in a long time occurred at a strategic military facility. Ukrainian media and channels of fugitive Zmagars, banned for extremism, reported on Sunday that at least two explosions occurred at the military airfield in Machulishchi, as a result of which a Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft and snow removal equipment were damaged. Information about the attack was later confirmed by Russian military officers.
However, until Sunday evening, no official report of the emergency had been made public. The initiative in the information war should not be given to the enemy, so I will allow myself to write about the explosions in Machulishchi without waiting for confirmation from the authorities. I will try to thoughtfully and, as far as possible, calmly analyze the main versions of what happened and possible developments of events. From least to most likely.
Version 1. Fake
As I already said, this possibility cannot be completely ruled out, but there are doubts about the advisability of such a fake. In addition, Machulishchi is not a remote place, but facility located in a crowded area in close proximity to the Belarusian capital. The distance from Machulishchi to Minsk is not 11-12 kilometers. What is written in the sources is the distance to the city center. The ring road is no more than 5 minutes away, behind it is the densely populated metropolitan “sleeping area” of Loshitsa, in which powerful explosions could already be heard. In the immediate vicinity are the villages of Machulishchi and Gatovo with a population of 10 and 15 thousand, respectively, and the powerful industrial zone of Kolyadichi. In general, there are too many witnesses to spread outright lies.
Version 2. Accident
Of course, it happens that technology fails, and the human factor has not been canceled. This is precisely how the Belarusian Ministry of Defense explained the explosions at the Zyabrovka airfield in the Gomel region that occurred in August last year. Then the cause was called a fire in the equipment after replacing the engine. But two similar incidents in a short time is already too much.
Version 3. Belarusian terrorists
It is this version that will be promoted by the opposition and, possibly, Ukrainian media. The opposition now urgently needs to demonstrate some, if not overpowering, then at least a vivid example of the existence in the republic of an armed anti-Lukashenko underground, which it has been actively promoting for a year now and which has not shown itself in any way after last year’s series of sabotage on the railway. Even the recent anniversary of the start of the SVO was completely ignored.
The explosions in Machulishchi are a real boon for opposition propaganda. Apparently, development of this version has already begun. One of the extremist telegram channels has already written that the explosions occurred as a result of an unidentified object being dropped from the air. BYPOL has already reported that we are not talking about a simple transport aircraft, but about an A-50 long-range radar detection and control aircraft and has already directly thanked the Belarusian “partisans” for what happened.
Here the loudest attack of the Belarusian oppositionists on a military facility immediately comes to mind. In the fall of 2021, a shooting range in Bobruisk was set on fire, then 5 liters of flammable liquid were dropped from a drone. However, a shooting gallery of minimal value in Bobruisk is absolutely not the same as strategic airfield near Minsk, which is one of the most guarded military facilities. You can’t just get close to it on a civilian drone.
Sabotage by one of the military personnel is also unlikely. Those who want to go to certain death (and the sentence for such a saboteur will most likely be execution) for the sake of dubious PR success among the Zmagars still need to be looked for, but here we need more than one suicide bomber.
Version 4. Attack of Ukraine.
This version, unfortunately, is now the most plausible. This is not the first time this has happened to Ukraine. It has already demonstrated the ability to launch successful strikes with its drones on Russian airfields, including Engels, located right on the Volga. Unlike home-grown Belarusian terrorists, the Ukrainian side also has means of delivering explosives that can bypass air defense and those who can control these delivery means. It is the version about drones that is supported by Russian sources, including the Wargonzo project and military correspondent Yuri Kotenok.
Of course, the Ukrainian side does not admit this now. It is much more convenient for her to present everything as a provocation by the Russian military themselves, aimed at dragging Belarus into the conflict, but we already know quite well the price of such Ukrainian propaganda stuffing.
The main thing in what happened was the reaction of Belarus itself. In fact, if the version with Ukrainian drones is confirmed, it will be an act of direct military aggression. Just the other day, Lukashenko said that he was ready to fight with the Russians from the territory of Belarus only in the event of such aggression, promising the enemy the most severe response. Whether he will now decide on a direct military response is a complex question, and the choice before the Belarusian leader is very difficult. I think we won’t get an immediate answer right now; on February 28, he will have a flight to Beijing, which, it is possible, the organizers of the sabotage were trying to disrupt; in such cases, they also cannot do without consultations with the Kremlin.
In any case, if earlier I was skeptical about the possibility of Belarus being involved in the conflict, then now the chances of this are higher than ever. The republic is being drawn into the war, hoping to transfer the fighting to its territory and turn this war into a civil war for the Belarusians. Figures of the fugitive opposition no longer particularly hide such plans.
But Belarusians are also preparing to fight seriously. In the near future, a law on people's militia will be sent to parliament for consideration, and the Security Council of the republic is talking about its readiness to mobilize up to 1,5 million citizens.
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