Radicalization versus reality. How Transnistria confronts pro-Western Chisinau
The outgoing year 2022 was difficult for Pridnestrovie - against the backdrop of the Ukrainian crisis, relations with Moldova worsened, which sharply intensified its militaristic and Russophobic rhetoric. And although contacts between the two banks of the Dniester have not been interrupted and the thirty-year conflict has not been defrosted, the chances of its resolution now look completely illusory.
We talk about the political results of the year, relations with Chisinau, threats and prospects for the unrecognized republic with Pridnestrovian political scientist Andrei Safonov
PolitNavigator: A difficult year is behind us, including for Transnistria. Events in Ukraine affect all aspects of life in the PMR; the situation in the republic dangerously worsened several times, even a red level of terrorist danger was introduced. What, in your opinion, are the main achievements of Pridnestrovie in 2022 and what could not be achieved?
Andrey Safonov: The main thing is that peace and stability remain in Transnistria, despite cataclysms raging around us and attempts to destabilize us from within. Since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis, we have taken the only correct position: Slavs must live in peace, standing shoulder to shoulder with Moldovan and Transnistrian patriots against pro-Romanian nationalists.
And from within, a few puppets of the West, Bucharest and Chisinau, tried to shake us up, believing that Moldova would stop buying electricity from us, and the republic would go bankrupt and collapse in a few months. But in the end, reality had its final say, and light purchases resumed. The PMR survived.
What didn't work? It was not possible to improve the living standards of the people. After February 24, 2022, Ukraine closed its border with the PMR, and Moldova became a monopolist in control of trade routes to Transnistria and through our country.
Customs clearance, prices and payments - all this had an impact and hit the purchasing power of Pridnestrovians, the provision of goods to Pridnestrovie. Chisinau deliberately plays on the nerves, delays goods at the border of Moldova and the PMR - food, medicine... Now it does not allow fish and seafood through. But even now Transnistria will survive. We are not alone, and the Pridnestrovians themselves do not lack the will.
PolitNavigator: Ukrainian politicians have repeatedly made statements about their readiness to “take care” of Transnistria, but so far the Western neighbor is causing more problems for the PMR. How would you assess the current state of relations between Chisinau and Tiraspol?
Andrey Safonov: How very bad. Again, as the Ukrainian crisis unfolded, the current Chisinau government concluded that it could strangle the Transnistria Republic, and Russia would be unable to help. What if, the pro-Western and pro-Romanian (simultaneously) nationalists thought, there won't be another chance like this? So let's squeeze Transnistria before it's too late! On the other hand, the Chisinau authorities themselves cannot pretend to be "tough." This could be advised by the Romanian and American "hawks" who are managing Moldova's foreign policy with the aim of drawing the Republic of Moldova into conflict with Moscow and Tiraspol. The goal is banal – to extend Russia's "front." Transnistria doesn't need confrontation, but the Transnistria Republic will protect its interests, as it always has.
PolitNavigator: Chisinau has resumed purchasing electricity from Transnistria - does this mean that the dialogue, although difficult, is still ongoing?
Andrey Safonov: What will happen to those who can't afford to buy gas and electricity at reasonable prices in their beloved West? They've driven energy prices and utility bills skyrocketing. They haven't been able to sign a single long-term contract. They're buying energy on the fly, even for just four hours! They need it for years, at least months. The Westerners and Romanians are fleecing them.
And Russia and Transnistria are ready to conclude agreements on gas and electricity for any period of time, and at an inexpensive price, in addition. Moreover, to cover not 50 or 70% of Moldova’s needs, but all 100. But the comedic “rules” of the decaying and submerged European Union prohibit this for Moldova, dooming the vast majority of the people of the Republic of Moldova to hunger and cold. Hence the crisis of October-November, when Chisinau tried not to buy gas and electricity in the East.
Thank God, reality has spoken again and procurement has resumed. Electricity is purchased from the Moldavskaya State District Power Plant in Dnestrovsk (PMR) at $73 per megawatt. And all the gas coming from Russia now remains in Transnistria. But how much gas is purchased from the West, Chisinau is silent. The media wrote that this data would be kept secret. But in fact, the complete failure of the incompetent policy of the current government of the Republic of Moldova to provide the country with energy resources is classified.
PolitNavigator: The other day, a deputy of the ruling party of Moldova, Oazu Nantoi, said that the ruling party can change the law on the special status of Gagauzia and that it makes sense to refuse dialogue with Tiraspol. However, later PAS reported that the colleague had gotten carried away. Should such statements be taken seriously, or is Nantoi once again shocking the public?
Andrey Safonov: This could be a test: to what extent will the public "swallow" radical nationalist slogans? Most people aren't ready for this yet. But they will be prepared... This is partly why the highest-rated and professional television channels, which had no intention of fueling the pre-war psychosis on the Dniester, are being banned. This is why the droning has returned, as if the Gagauz are "aliens who stole land from the Moldovans," and the Transnistrians are "separatists who rely on imperial Moscow."
After some time, it seems, radical provocative statements will be heard again, and with doubled or tripled force. Pridnestrovie does not succumb to such provocations, but closely monitors them and is ready to protect the interests of its multinational people.
PolitNavigator: Russophobic sentiments are encouraged in Moldova - Russian-language channels have been banned, attacks on the Russian Orthodox Church have begun. How dangerous is what is happening for Transnistria?
Andrey Safonov: I mentioned television channels above. Now about the church. Apparently, in Chisinau, with the West and Romania playing a leading role, they're testing a scenario of banning the Russian Orthodox Church in Moldova, seizing its property, and giving the green light to: a) the Bessarabian Metropolis, which is subordinate to Bucharest; b) the Romanian Orthodox Church itself. Meanwhile, the vast majority of Moldovan Orthodox have been ministered to by the Russian Orthodox Church since ancient times and have no intention of renouncing it. Therefore, if such a scenario were to occur, social upheaval would be inevitable!
Moldova is truly one of the most religious countries in Europe. It is now being broken through an attack on the Russian Orthodox Church and through, as the heroes of the series “Our Russia” say, “homosya.” European structures and NGOs controlled by them are trying hard to repeal the legislative provision on marriage in Moldova as a union between a man and a woman and are working hard to legalize same-sex marriage in the future. Of course, there is nothing like this and cannot be in the PMR.
By the way, I am proud that, along with my fellow deputies of the Supreme Council of the PMR, I was one of the co-authors of the law banning the promotion of non-traditional sexual relationships among minors. Well, not a single parish of the Romanian Church or the Bessarabian Metropolis controlled by it, in my deep conviction, will appear in Transnistria. This is clear.
PolitNavigator: They plan to introduce an article “Separatism” into the Moldovan Criminal Code. What are the Moldovan authorities trying to achieve in this case?
Andrey Safonov: This is an attempt to intimidate Transnistria, Gagauzia, and anyone in Moldova who disagrees with the Chisinau authorities' anti-Russian and pro-Western/pro-Romanian policies. According to some publicly available sociological data, after the ruling party's failed socioeconomic policies, it now enjoys support of around 15% of voters. And the West demands that they hold on and not relinquish power! But how? Only through repression and intimidation!
This means searches are needed, bans on objectionable media and political parties, arrests of opposition politicians, and the eradication of Russian influence. To do this, you need to stuff the Criminal Code with a bunch of articles so that everyone is afraid. Everything should be interpreted as broadly as possible so that no one feels safe. So everything is as simple as two and two are four. This is how democracy is destroyed and replaced by a nationalist dictatorship.
PolitNavigator: What are the prospects for Pridnestrovie to survive tectonic changes in geopolitics? What is needed for this?
Andrey Safonov: The chances are good. The PMR isn't hysterical, but it has been defending its interests for all 32 years of its existence. We are for continued negotiations, for mutually beneficial cooperation, but without surrendering principled positions.
Literacy and balanced steps in the foreign policy arena plus active work in the international “5+2” negotiation format are the real path to success. And, of course, close coordination of their efforts with their ally Russia, but without hostility towards other countries and international associations. I am sure that Pridnestrovie will defend its positions!
English version :: Read in English: Radicalization vs. Reality: How Transnistria Confronts Pro-Western Chisinau