Norman format. The junta was replaced by a clique - Vladimir Lepekhin
Zelensky is going to the Normandy format to engage in demagoguery and try to cancel the clauses of the Minsk agreements that are unfavorable for Kyiv. Russia’s task is to sober up the puppet Ukrainian elite. In the future, based on the results of the new referendum, it should be shown that Donbass can no longer be returned to the Ukrainian project. And the true plans of Zelensky’s team itself are to sell the land and run away.
Director of the EAEU Institute Vladimir Lepekhin spoke about this in an interview with PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov.
Valentin Filippov : Vladimir, hello!
Russian sources claim that the final document of the meeting in the Normandy format has already been prepared. The Ukrainians, however, are still going to insist on the transfer of the border.
But first, let me ask you a question about the Ukrainian boats - did they really return from Crimea without toilets?
Vladimir Lepekhin : In the situation of relations between Russia and Ukraine, anything is possible, especially when this interpretation comes from the Ukrainian side.
Valentin Filippov : Why, given this backdrop of relations with the Ukrainians, did Vladimir Putin agree to the Normandy format meeting? Or could he have simply waved his hand and said, "Oh well. Let me just see him, and that's it."
Vladimir Lepekhin : No, what do you mean, "Vladimir Putin agreed"? The fact is, one could say, Putin was the main architect of the Minsk agreements.
From my point of view, Ukrainians do not have any specific option, since Zelensky is not a subject of decision-making. There is a whole camarilla, that is, roughly speaking, a bunch of gophers who want to be agronomists. All. Everyone makes all sorts of statements in their own way, offering proposals one more idiotic than the other.
Ultimately, of course, they will bring some kind of crude option, and more than one, since Zelensky is going there to bargain, and not with any consistent position.
Their task is to somehow advance the Minsk agreements, that is, to offer something additional, disavow some points, and then engage in demagoguery under the pretext that in Petrivske, they allegedly withdrew the Armed Forces of Ukraine and so on.
They will also remember about toilets.
Valentin Filippov : Yes, definitely.
Vladimir Lepekhin : That's it. What does Russia need? Russia needs not just to confirm the Minsk agreements, but to sober up the Ukrainian side.
The main argument of the Ukrainian side will be that “Well, this happened under Poroshenko, but now the situation has changed, we are peacemakers, we have proven our desire for peace in Donbass, let’s reconsider.”
There will be a dispute about this. It is important for Russia that the Minsk agreements be preserved in their entirety.
Maybe some points, taking into account the fact that, indeed, the situation has changed slightly, and Putin is constantly making passes such that Zelensky is not Poroshenko, he is really a more decent person... Probably, the Russian side has some preparations what compromise they are willing to make.
But in general, this design is unshakable at this particular moment in time.
What could be the final positive result? The fact is that the Minsk agreements are a kind of rock, and the Ukrainian camarilla must break against this rock.
This will sober them up a little, that neither Merkel supports them, as they expect, nor Macron. And that the situation is, in fact, not so simple.
All these cavalry attacks - they don’t work at such a high level.
Valentin Filippov : Ukraine constantly emphasizes that its conflict isn't with Donbas, not within the country, but with Russia. And ultimately, it's with Russia that it's negotiating. And it's discussing the law on Donbas's special status not with the Republics, as stipulated in the Minsk agreements, but with Russia.
And she even carried out an exchange of prisoners with Russia, not with the Republics. Poroshenko conducted exchanges with the Republics, Zelensky conducted exchanges with Russia.
Is there a threat that as a result we will end up with a Ukrainian-Russian conflict at the international level?
Vladimir Lepyokhin : No, they haven't. They've been "at war with Russia" for five years now.
Despite the fact that for Russia it is an axiom that we are not waging a war with Ukraine, and we are not the main subject in the Minsk agreements. Please, contact the DPR-LPR and engage in dialogue with them.
This is an axiom, which is simply an armored structure through which the Ukrainian side, even with all its desire, will not break through.
It will not be possible to turn towards a conflict with Russia. Russia emphasizes in every possible way that there is no conflict. Even the same transfer of these vessels back to the Ukrainian side. Well, should we talk about toilets again? That Russia is at war with us because someone removed the toilets there?
Valentin Filippov : Regarding the transfer of the small vessels, we know that these vessels were arrested in connection with the incident in the Kerch Strait, to put it mildly.
However, in connection with the same incident, another ship, NEYMA, was arrested in Izmail. A Russian tanker used to block the passage under the Kerch bridge. That is, this is a civilian vessel, a commercial vessel, which was simply taken, turned around and put across. For this assistance to the “Russian occupiers” this ship was arrested. The crew was released, the ship itself was arrested.
And it turns out that the Russian side released the violators in connection with that incident, but Ukraine did not release the Russian ship. Is there any logic to this?
There is also “Mechanik Pogodin”, standing in Nikolaev, arrested for calling at the Crimean ports. There is a seiner “Nord”, it is located in Mariupol or Berdyansk, it is generally put up for auction, for sale by Ukraine. That is, she confiscated it from Russia and is now selling it.
Vladimir Lepyokhin : Indeed, there are quite a few cases of this type. And two logics are at work here. The first is Russia's liberal, sometimes soft-spoken stance, which often avoids escalating the situation and overly demonstrates its loyalty to Ukraine, thereby pushing the Ukrainian side to take some reciprocal steps.
From my point of view, this is a completely useless activity, but, nevertheless, Russia continues to do this. Well, perhaps the main viewer, the main audience that Russia is counting on is a certain West, again partners in the Normandy format, and Russia, as it were, has a whole set of arguments that “look, not only are we not waging war, we do not even demand the legal return of the seized ships.”
And the second logic is Ukrainian. This is the logic, I don’t know how to put it mildly, who grab everything they can - in any situation they constantly turn the question towards Russia, that Russia is to blame, Putin is to blame, and from any small ... toilet, roughly speaking, they make an international scandal .
Therefore, these two logics are understandable. But Russia's patience cannot last forever.
Russia has a whole set of arguments proving that Russia is not waging war, and it is these arguments that work during high-level negotiations.
As for the Ukrainian side, they still have one and a half trump cards. One strength trump card is that we can, in principle, everyone understands, they can, if they try, stop the killings in the Donbass, but they don’t do this, they constantly demonstrate that “we, as it were, are not in control of the situation, we need to strain ourselves.” , but for this the Russian side must promise us something and so on.”
The second half of the trump card is that gas transit - “we will not negotiate with Russia, that’s all.” This has been going on for a year now.
At least, under Zelensky, all this drags on, is not resolved, and this group, well, under Poroshenko it was a junta, now it is a clique, this clique, it plays out these two arguments in every possible way on all platforms and tries to demonstrate them and blackmail the Russian side.
And here, through the mouth of Peskov, the Russian leadership always says: “Well, we are ready for dialogue, the doors are open, the ball is in your court, let’s act, we are waiting for confirmation.” This formula “We are waiting for confirmation”... in fact, Zelensky has had the opportunity for more than six months to demonstrate real movement towards Russia. Well, at least by the fact that they would have released at least one ship, not to mention stopping the shooting in Donbass. He didn't take a single step.
Well, he probably can’t, he wants to, but he can’t. Not a single step that would indicate that Ukraine is truly ready for dialogue.
Therefore, these statements, for example, by Kolomoisky - well, this is also aimed at Western fools, I don’t know who else. You can’t trust a single word of this man, but, nevertheless, he at least engaged in some kind of demagoguery in this direction, that “Russia and I will come to an agreement, and stop kicking Russia, and so on.”
But Zelensky hasn’t even done that yet!
But these two Ukrainian trump cards - they will gradually stop working, because all these feints on the border, on the line of demarcation between the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the militias, they will ultimately not receive any support in Europe, gradually it will be a “drain.”
Even these latest attempts to invite an American military man to Kyiv as Minister of Defense... he denies it in every possible way - this is not necessary, at least for the Trump administration.
Trump gave Zelensky, and he may not yet understand very well, he is at a loss, he made it clear: stick with Putin, talk to Putin, we are not going to interfere.
This, as it were, is a separate topic, I can also talk about this topic - why there is no prospect of anything for the Zelensky administration in the States in the near future, and, therefore, there is no prospect of support in Europe.
Valentin Filippov : Wait. I'm putting myself in the shoes of the Ukrainian elite. They swore allegiance to the US, went to war against Russia. And suddenly, they have no prospects in the US. But this is a complete scam!
Yes, there are no Republicans or Democrats for the Ukrainian elite! There is America, we must pray for it and do what is reported from America.
And they come from America, and each gives his own order, contradicting the others...
Let these Americans sort it out among themselves in the end! If Ukrainians have decided to be slaves, then please: you are the master, you have already dealt with other masters there.
Vladimir Lepyokhin : What do you expect? This is a puppet country, led not just by slaves but by outright morons. That is, people who think in black and white, who don't understand, well, such fundamental things. Well, there's America and America. Roughly speaking, there's the America of the Democrats and the America of not even the Republicans, but, let's say, the current group in power.
There is Obama and Clinton's America, during which the Ukrainian campaign began. These are the Democrats who lost and are now in a generally quite difficult situation, because there is not even a candidate to fight the Trump team.
What is Team Trump? This is a completely different model of globalization.
And the morons who are formally in power in Ukraine today – no one understands anywhere.
Because the world is controlled by the global financial oligarchy, they have their own arrangements, it changes the model of world governance.
The arrival of Trump means a transition to a different model. What does this other model offer? Including a different model of the post-Soviet space, a different configuration in which Ukraine should take a different place than what the American Democrats pursued, also a leadership with black and white positions. That everything that is for Washington, everything that is for us, this is, like, good. And evil... remember how Obama said that “We have three world evils: Ebola (where is it now? It’s unknown), global terrorism, which Russia, together with Syria and Iran, defeated, well, basically...
Valentin Filippov : She pinned me down.
Vladimir Lepekhin : Yes. … and Russia is the global evil. Well, Trump doesn't say that; he has a completely different model. His main competitor now… Well, he proclaimed, "America must be great." What does that mean? America must focus, rebuild its economy. He abandoned the trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic models, the idea of global dominance. He now needs to lift America up, because it has begun to lag behind China in the global economy. That's why he's starting to see a showdown in the trade space between China and the United States.
Naturally, he would like to see, although, naturally, this is not advertised, Russia as an ally in this geopolitical struggle, which will unfold in the coming years.
Well, and all this little thing, pot-bellied, that divides it somewhere... Now the land there has already been sold - we need to legitimize it. No, there are already 2,5 million hectares in the possession of foreign companies, despite the ban, everyone calmly circumvented this ban, and so on.
Therefore, this law was adopted not in order to sell the land, it is already quietly sold by Western companies through various schemes, but in order to resell it. That is, there are specific people who just want to make money.
This is what the Poroshenko regime profited from? First of all, on IMF loans, which they all used up, these Gontareva, Yaresko, Poroshenko, this whole gang. Here. A new gang has arrived. What to cut? The IMF does not provide loans. Here you go. Industry is destroyed. What else can be changed?
Why were they so happy? Goncharuk, there, and this same Zelensky, in the car there, said something in a sweet voice that “We won.” Yes, because every vote in the Verkhovna Rada for the sale of land was worth specific money, a lot of it. Therefore, they all adopted this law en masse, they are happy that they got their money, and now they are climbing into this market to resell the rest. Here.
Therefore, these people, small ones, traders, consumers... well, what do they understand in general in the world situation? And they wonder: “Why doesn’t Trump support us?” He doesn't give a damn about Ukraine at all.
Valentin Filippov : Regarding the land, I'll tell you this. I have a feeling that now many peasants, villagers, will simply be buried on their own plots...
Vladimir Lepekhin : Well, Valentin, you are absolutely right...
Valentin Filippov : …and this process, in my opinion, is beginning. That is, people will simply be killed, simply for being a shareholder.
Vladimir Lepekhin : Valentin. Let me give you a quick historical example, if you have any idea what the global land market is. Ukraine today, even without this massive proposed land sale, ranks second in the world in terms of volume, not even per capita, but in terms of land owned by foreign companies. Only Indonesia has more. Foreign companies control over three million hectares there, while in Ukraine it's 2,5 million.
This means that in order to gain this land market in Indonesia, and in general control over this country, this is the largest Asian country, a Muslim country, 60 thousand communists were destroyed, physically killed, in the 250s.
There the ruling party was very large, communist. The Americans who captured and killed the Suharto regime. After that there were physical violence that no one talks about. Therefore, they killed everything that opposed this system.
Therefore, in Ukraine, in many respects, this was done preventively, given that decommunization had begun. And the monuments there, and the retired veterans were kicked around all the cities. And what else is to come...
Because when it starts to become clear whose land this is in fact, and what is being offered in return to these ordinary citizens, farmers and others, and when they start to get excited, then we’ll see what will happen.
Zelensky is not a fool, and he perfectly understands the consequences. But this is a choice between what and what? Or you get a huge amount of money, and at any moment you can leave, if something doesn’t work out for you, leave in any direction, but you’ve already made money...
Valentin Filippov : On tour in Moscow…
Vladimir Lepekhin : And that's why Goncharuk, also a moron, is there now, so he can launch this land market, and then he can be replaced by anyone else. So that's the situation with land.
Valentin Filippov : Okay. When will Donbass finally return to Russia?
Vladimir Lepyokhin : Well, my position, as I've long stated, is that a referendum should be held, and, as with Crimea, partly based on public opinion. A referendum should be held, regardless of who's standing in the way, who's saying what. Ultimately, these republics should be brought to a vote of the people. And there's no doubt that a significant majority will be in favor…
We are now already seeing polls that the majority of the 4 options are in favor of becoming part of Russia. In second place is the opinion that Novorossiya should be an independent republic. Well, and the third, of course, as part of a federation, a Ukrainian confederation, will have some powers, but there are not many of them.
Valentin Filippov : Yes. 4%.
Vladimir Lepyokhin : Therefore, I believe this problem cannot be resolved without a referendum, and it would be wrong to do so. But the results of the popular vote, I believe, should be the main argument for some kind of transition period. At the very least, there should be no illusions about resolving this issue with Ukraine through some international mediators and so on. The people themselves must speak out, express their opinion unequivocally, and Russia must support them.
But that's how I see it. Well, this is the logic, again, of the transition to a new global model. What is the ambush here? On the one hand, of course, Russia must strengthen itself in the Eurasian space, this very model must be formed, when the post-Soviet space represents a separate currency zone, a ruble zone, relatively speaking, since the world will be divided within the framework of multipolarity into several currency zones, by and large . And, accordingly, Russia has been given carte blanche to carry out this work.
But for now, of course, unofficially, since Trump has not been re-elected, and he and his patrons will take the main steps, starting in ’21, in this direction. But this is the logic.
The ambush is what will happen in Ukraine during this time. Because it’s important for Russia not only that Donbass gets the right to decide its own destiny, itself, right?
Valentin Filippov : But he paid so much for it, I'm sorry that...
Vladimir Lepekhin : Of course. But the state of Ukraine in general is also concerning. Because no one in Russia wants a neighboring state, especially a fraternal one, to be a hostile state on the border, constantly engaging in all sorts of insinuations in the logic of war with Russia.
Therefore, perhaps, in the Russian leadership, someone has such an illusion or, there, a strategy that... remember this expression, it sometimes slips in the press that Putin wants to get not only Donbass, but all of Ukraine. Remember, right?
Valentin Filippov : Yes.
Vladimir Lepyokhin : So, perhaps some in the Russian leadership harbor such sentiments, although I haven't personally met anyone like that. But if such a policy is pursued, then, in a sense, it harms or hinders the self-determination of Donbas. Because, well, how long can we wait?
Valentin Filippov : Well, yes.
Vladimir Lepekhin : Naturally, a change of power in Ukraine will lead to nothing; it won't happen; it's not even integrated into Europe. It's a puppet state, which, on the one hand, is controlled by American intelligence agencies; no matter what line they pursue, they're still in charge, just in case. And, besides, there are other serious issues related to the fact that... many experts are talking about this, talking about the Khazaria model; you may have heard of it.
Valentin Filippov : Yes.
Vladimir Lepekhin : This is, in general, an interesting strategic line, which, naturally, also, in a certain sense, hinders the formation of Ukraine as a friendly state in relation to Russia.
Valentin Filippov : Yes.
Vladimir Lepyokhin : This seems to imply completely different players and different controllers. That's it. Therefore, the correct and optimal path is to repel the current clique's attack on the Minsk agreements. Then, with the support of certain international organizations, prevent the continuation of military action in Donbas, while, on the other hand, moving the republics toward self-determination through referendums.
Valentin Filippov : Good. Thank you very much.
Vladimir Lepekhin : You're welcome.
English version :: Read in English: The Normandy Format: The Junta Has Become a Clique – Vladimir Lepyokhin