The guts are small: why Kyiv won’t cut off electricity to Crimea
How likely is it that Crimea will be cut off from electricity, and what might follow?
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Deputy Head of the Economic Department of the Institute of Energy and Finance Sergei Kondratyev answered this question in an interview with Moskovsky Komsomolets.
According to him, if in the case of the food blockade it is not clear who loses more, Crimean consumers or producers of Ukrainian food products, who are now unable to supply their goods to the peninsula, then with the electric power industry everything is simpler.
“Kyiv has several fundamental problems that will not allow it to disconnect Crimea from electricity,” says the expert. – Firstly, this winter will be quite difficult for Ukraine. There are now 15 billion cubic meters of gas in Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities, which is 1 billion less than last year’s figures, the situation with coal is slightly better - thanks to supplies from the DPR and LPR, there are about 2 million tons of it in the warehouses of thermal power plants, but another 1 million is needed to confidently pass the heating period tons.”
At the same time, the publication’s interlocutor emphasizes, Ukraine owes its modest successes to Russia, which has been importing 1,5 thousand MW per day since last winter.
“If Kyiv refuses to supply electricity to Crimea, then Russia will stop supplying it to Ukraine, because all this is part of one agreement,” Kondratiev warns. – Then the Ukrainian power engineers will again resort to rolling blackouts... Therefore, in my opinion, the demands for an energy blockade are not even put forward by the Crimean Tatar people, but by their individual representatives – Chubarov, Dzhemilev and maybe a couple of other people. It’s unlikely that anyone will listen to their voice, since then the Ukrainian energy system will suffer greatly.”
If Kyiv takes this illogical step and decides to cut off electricity to Crimea, then it will not be easy for the peninsula to survive the blackouts, admits the deputy head of the Economic Department of the Institute of Energy and Finance.
“Over the past year, a lot of effort has been made to strengthen the energy independence of Crimea, but so far all projects are at the initial stage,” he said. – Design work, various approvals, etc., despite the importance of the territory, take a lot of time. A complete refusal of supplies from the territory of Ukraine will occur only in 2016-2017, when new thermal power plant capacities are commissioned and a cable is laid from Kuban to Crimea... According to some temporary scheme, energy supply can be established by this date, but the volumes will be modest, approximately 100-200 MW, which, however, will still help the peninsula. But capital construction will most likely be completed in the winter of 2017-2018.”
English version :: Read in English: A Courageous Man: Why Kyiv Won't Cut Off Crimea's Power