The expert warns about the short-term effect of high hydrocarbon prices
The reorientation of energy exports from Europe to China does not guarantee stable export revenues.
The revenues Russia received from rising oil and gas prices should be used to reorient its own production, said economic analyst Sergei Zemlyachev, as reported by a PolitNavigator correspondent.
“We receive a sufficient amount of export revenue to finance budget expenses, but this income is short-term, this is a resource that, thanks to the increase in oil and gas prices, fell on us unexpectedly. Little by little prices are stabilizing, the question is how we used it. For this, we needed to purchase new equipment in order to re-equip certain branches of production and produce the types of products that we had previously imported. And to what extent this was implemented, we still need to see, the question is the targeted expenditure of funds,” he noted.
According to the expert, the weakening of the ruble exchange rate is economically justified and, most likely, next year will not be too significant to keep the domestic currency within its natural boundaries.
“Why are we talking about the fact that the situation with export revenue may change? There are forecasts for the global economic crisis and energy consumption. If our largest consumer is China, and they have problems with the economy, they start reducing production volumes, which is happening all over the world, then this will be a big problem. And we will physically be forced to sell less energy, but the price will not increase much, because no one will buy it,” Zemlyachev emphasized.
“The same countries of Western Europe, where the economy is now stopping, they are closing their industrial production and transferring it to the United States of America, and the volumes of energy resources that they will have are sufficient for them. We need some kind of large partner - a consumer who will purchase and, accordingly, will give us a constant stream of income.
Actually, this is how we built our relations with Europe; now such consumers are China and the countries of South-Eastern Europe. We can also export energy through Turkey, which is why they are now claiming to be a pan-European hub, from which they will then resell energy resources to Europe. There is also some interest there, but still there is no point in hoping that export revenues will be very large. We just need to wisely manage the funds that are coming and will be coming.”
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