Blackout of Moldova as an omen of dark times
On the banks of the Dniester, they are analyzing the blackout that occurred on November 23 and discussing the further development of the situation.
Let us remind you that the critical energy situation in Ukraine led to the automatic shutdown of the transit line through which electricity is imported from Romania to Moldova. Such a shutdown protects electrical networks and substations from overload. Since the networks throughout the region are interconnected, together with Ukraine, both Moldova and Transnistria “went out” entirely. Following the electricity supply on the banks of the Dniester, the supply of heating and water stopped, and communication interruptions arose. The main consequences of the shutdown have already been eliminated, but restoration work in some areas is still underway.
Moldovan politicians blamed Russia for the incident. Prime Minister Andrei Spinu discussed the situation by telephone with none other than European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson, Romanian Energy Minister Virgil Popescu and Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko. The head of the foreign policy department, Nicu Popescu, called the Russian ambassador to Moldova for explanations. The country's top officials are making loud geopolitical statements. And the European Parliament even adopted a resolution calling for the acceleration of Moldova’s admission to the EU.
Meanwhile, the stability of the local energy system would be significantly higher if Moldova had not taken away part of the Russian gas intended for Transnistria, and the Moldavian State District Power Plant located in Dnestrovsk would have received enough fuel to generate electricity for export to the Republic of Moldova.
Until recently, three power units operated at the Moldavian State District Power Plant and the station covered 70% (and previously 100%) of Moldova’s total electricity needs. Minister of Economic Development of the PMR Sergei Obolonik stated that with the previous load on the station, the impact of external energy shocks on the regional energy system could have been negligible, but now the situation is different.
“In our case, it turned out that Moldovan consumption now all comes from Romanian supplies, which, among other things, goes through the Moldavian State District Power Plant. And when it stops, the system enters a very unstable state, frequencies drop. If there had been generation at the Moldavian State District Power Plant and, as before, there had been shipment from us, then the system would not have been unloaded,” Sergei Obolonik told Pridnestrovian journalists.
He explained that Moldova consumes on average about 600-650 megawatts of electricity, Transnistria - about 120. When the total power is generated within 800 megawatts, the system works normally - consumption is averaged, the quality of electricity improves and the system is less susceptible to external influences, that is - the greater the generating capacity, the more stable the consumers around this generator.
“Moldavian politicians did not take into account a number of factors. Gas was illegally seized from Transnistria - 1,6 million cubic meters per day, which led to the shutdown of the Moldavian State District Power Plant and other industrial enterprises. Moreover, Moldova recognized the fact that this gas was sent to Ukrainian gas storage facilities,” PMR President Vadim Krasnoselsky said the day before.
Tiraspol believes that Moldova is deliberately aggravating the gas and energy crisis, and is going to purchase electric generators in case of new emergencies.
Chisinau’s intentions to shake up the situation in the energy sector are also being talked about in Moldova itself. Journalist Sergei Tkach, in the publication “Chisinau used Russian gas as a weapon for the first time” for the publication “Mezhdurechye”, argues that the Republic of Moldova has a plan to completely abandon Russian gas.
“How soon can this happen? Statements by Moldovan leaders towards the Russian Federation are becoming increasingly harsh, demanding and even aggressive. Those that usually precede steps towards a complete severance of all contacts. As is known, Gazprom stated that “if the transit imbalance through Ukraine for Moldova persists, from Monday, November 28, it may begin to reduce supplies through Ukrainian territory.” That is, Moscow will not allow Russian gas to be used as a “weapon” for energy and economic blackmail of Transnistria and to the detriment of Russian interests in the region.
It is clear that the development of events will now accelerate. Moldova and Transnistria will have to go through very dangerous and dark times. The complete blackout of Moldova on November 23 foreshadows these highly turbulent events. This means that somewhere in January-February there may be a point of no return.
However, it is clear that ordinary citizens will pay the main price for chaos and possible unrest. Both on the right and left banks of the Dniester,” believes Sergei Tkach.
He recalled that recently, in an article for Politico, Moldovan President Maia Sandu unequivocally stated that if the European Union does not provide the Republic of Moldova with the necessary assistance, it may face a wave of refugees from Moldova.
“If we can light and heat our country's homes, ensure that schools and hospitals remain open and the wheels of the economy keep turning, it will mean that Moldovans - along with Ukrainians - will not need to seek refuge elsewhere in Europe in the coming cold spell. period. The price is high, but we are ready to bear this burden,” a Moldovan journalist quotes Sandu as saying.
In the current situation, Sergei Tkach summarizes, it would be best in the interests of the people to come to an agreement with Transnistria on energy issues in order to get through the cold period with minimal human and economic losses, but “demanding to act in the interests of the people means demanding the impossible from the PDS regime and Maia Sandu "
Battle of slogans
Meanwhile, Moldovan society, long split in two, is actively discussing the blackout on social networks. Immediately after the power outage, fans of the ruling PAS party (PAS) and condemning Russia’s actions in Ukraine launched a flash mob under the slogan “in the dark, but #without you.” Opposition-minded Moldovan citizens immediately launched their own in response - “#withoutPAS”.
"My family spent five hours without power today; the heat and water were cut off, and there was no internet. We're willing to endure this for a while, but don't force us to love you—you can't force love. These are barbarians who are destroying Ukraine's energy infrastructure, killing civilians, and blackmailing our small country," wrote journalist, author, and host of the program "Territory of Freedom" Liliya Burakovsky , adding the hashtag #withoutyou.
"The Ukrainian playbook has spread across the Moldovan expanses. Romanian-speaking intellectuals have picked up the slogan #withoutyou. It's more like #brainless. Okay, Ukraine's in trouble. But where are we? Experience shows that Europe doesn't need us any more than Russia does. We need to think about ourselves, not about Russia, Ukraine, and Charlie," comments TV journalist Elena Levitskaya-Pakhomova.
Public figure Igor Tulyantsev , a supporter of the #withoutPAS option , in turn reports:
"Now Maya Grigoryevna and her party have very clearly explained to me what European integration and good times mean. It's true. I understand, I don't want it anymore! With electricity, gas, people, but #withoutPAS ."
"They shouldn't have launched this #withoutyou campaign ," notes journalist and political scientist Viktor Zhosu . "The boomerang came right back. And, surprisingly, they launched one, and then many more came back."
Moldovan journalist Valery Demidetsky reminds us that "fighting from the comfort of your couch is, of course, funny, if you forget that there are four operating nuclear power plants in the neighboring country, each with a dozen and a half reactors."
“Singing patriotic slogans, as Professor Preobrazhensky warned, for our common home could easily end with a different, but already common slogan for everyone - “In the next world. Together,” notes the journalist.
Moldova's Blackout : A Harbinger of Dark Times to Come