“The state of chaos in Ukraine will last at least 3-5 years”
Moscow – Kyiv, November 12 (PolitNavigator, Sergey Stepanov) – Ukraine is only the first zone of instability on Russia's borders orchestrated by the West. The chaos in the former Soviet republic will last at least another three years. But more serious problems could arise on Russia's borders in Central Asia, where the tangle of contradictions is far more complex. Political scientist Semyon Uralov , editor-in-chief of the portal "Odnako. Eurasia," explained this in an interview with PolitNavigator .
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PolitNavigator: How will the situation in Ukraine develop in the next six months?
Semyon Uralov: The development of the situation will directly depend on the militarization of Ukrainian society and the elites' desire to profit from the war. Given that the desire is high, and some reserves still remain, society will continue to be whipped into hysteria, and a slow-moving war will ensue.
Moreover, the war is more on TV, and de facto Ukraine will plunge more and more into chaos associated with armed people whom no one controls.
But the unrecognized republics will have similar problems. We talk about independence, sovereignty, mutual divorce, but de facto these territories economically remain one region. Everyone is critically dependent on each other in terms of resources, infrastructure, plus the problem of crossing the border. Therefore, despite the fact that Donbass has “set sail,” de facto it all remains one territory that develops according to the same laws. The only difference is that in Donbass the elites, at least nominally the top officials, have changed, but in Ukraine we see the same characters we remember from the time of Leonid Kuchma.
The bankruptcy of the republic will continue, earnings will continue from the remainder, followed by the emigration of the elites to their capital.
PolitNavigator: Representatives of the DPR and LPR have stated that new regions of Ukraine may join them in the future. How realistic is this?
Semyon Uralov: I'm skeptical about Novorossiya's organizational form. Currently, there are only the LPR and DPR, and they haven't fully resolved the issue of a de facto union. While there's a common enemy, the merging of state authorities hasn't really begun. Rather, they're developing as two separate entities. Novorossiya, meanwhile, is laying claim to some kind of integration project. Therefore, first, we need to demonstrate how the LPR and DPR could unite.
"PolitNavigator": Will Russia try to break through a land corridor to Crimea, as is stated in the Ukrainian press?
Semyon Uralov: I don't believe Russia will be drawn directly into this conflict. If there is any escalation, it will be related to the militia forces in the direction of Mariupol. But judging by the number of armed men they claim to have, I doubt it's enough to control the cities leading to Crimea—Mariupol, Berdyansk, and so on.
"PolitNavigator": Representatives of the Ukrainian authorities say that they were able to prevent the loss of control over Odessa through tough measures. How do you assess the situation there now?
Semyon Uralov: We need to call a spade a spade: there's terror in Odessa. Some have been arrested, some killed, and some forced into exile. They've plunged the city into an atmosphere of fear, and against this backdrop, the population is becoming increasingly impoverished. The critical mass for resistance is frankly insufficient. Meanwhile, all the thugs (what's conventionally called the "Right Sector") continue to arm themselves with weapons. They even have a training base. They feel at ease; the police don't interfere. Therefore, the terror will continue, just as, incidentally, it did in Kharkiv.
It should be noted: there are two different terrors. Terror for building a state and terror for the sake of “squeezing out” attractive assets. The second option is happening in Ukraine. We can see how in Zaporozhye literally the other day they “squeezed out” the plant. This happens all the time in Kyiv. This awaits both Odessa and Kharkov - we are dealing with a rollback into a neo-feudal state and society, when a small part of the elites and regional barons who managed to form their own armed units will redistribute property in their own interests.
"PolitNavigator": Can the economic crisis in Ukraine lead to a change of government?
Semyon Uralov: For an economic crisis to lead to a change of power, a subject is needed. There is no "Bolshevik Party" with an alternative agenda. A coup is possible, as in any country with armed men who are not under control. But even if this coup physically replaces some people with others, it will not affect the state model in any way.
We are talking exclusively about the fact that the food supply for the Ukrainian oligarchy is shrinking. There are fewer and fewer resources left every month, but the desire to control everything and everyone remains. It's like a game in a kindergarten, where they run around to the music and take one chair each time. So it is here – every time one of the oligarchic groups is “selected out”. For example, Akhmetov’s group has ceased to be as influential as it was two years ago. The same goes for Firtash’s group. Accordingly, in the end there will be one or two financial and industrial groups left.
"PolitNavigator": Is the current conflict in Ukraine for a long time?
Semyon Uralov: If there is no external will – not only from the Russian Federation, but also from the United States – then for at least 3-5 years there will be a state of chaos, during which funds will be redistributed.
"PolitNavigator": Is the common will of external players in relation to Ukraine possible?
Semyon Uralov: I don't believe that. Because the ultimate goal is to destabilize Russia. The US will play its part, and the EU is under external control.
We are talking about the following. Will the European Union be driven or not driven into a free trade zone with the United States and will economic relations with the Russian Federation be severed? Will Russia have time to redirect its energy and financial flows towards Southeast Asia to compensate for the losses from the break with the EU? Will it be able to physically survive and ensure the protection of its borders?
Zones of instability such as Ukraine are expected in Central Asia. Moreover, there is probably an even more tangled tangle of contradictions, for example, in Uzbekistan. There is also a conflict of elites there, it is not yet visible, since the old rulers are alive. Plus, you need to understand the ISIS factor, because a huge number of Uzbeks, Kyrgyz and Kazakhs are fighting there. These people will sooner or later want to build a caliphate in their country.
Maidan happened for a reason. All the goals of the oligarchs and the goals of the radicals are clear, but the people initially supported and legitimized the Maidan, going to the squares, because there was a demand for justice and dissatisfaction with the socio-economic situation. The ISIS project in this sense is similar. This is the Islamic version of justice. Another question is that it is implemented in the form of the destruction of dissenters. But if we look at Ukraine, the “right of Maidan” is implemented in exactly the same way.
English version :: Read in English "The state of chaos in Ukraine will last at least 3-5 years"