Why Russia extended the Grain Deal, with which it was deceived several times
The “grain deal” is automatically - in the absence of objections from the parties - continued for another 120 days (its end date will coincide with the ninth anniversary of the reunification of Crimea with the Russian Federation).
This happened despite the fact that Kyiv had previously used the corridor to export food, transported explosives along it for a terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge, and also secretly carried unmanned sea drones along the route to attack Sevastopol.
The deal was preserved for the sake of maintaining good relations with Turkey, says radio host Sergei Mardan.
“Apparently, the grain deal is Erdogan’s personal project. The grain will go to Turkish flour mills and will be supplied to poor countries as products of Turkish industry.”
Political scientist Sergei Markov points out that the West continues to fail to fulfill its obligations to Russia.
“The other part of this deal, the export of Russian grain, has not yet worked. Because Western banks do not provide insurance or reinsurance for grain carriers exporting grain from Russia.”
Turkologist Vladimir Avatkov believes that Ankara will provide assistance to Russia in lifting a number of sanctions.
“Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu stated the need to intensify negotiations on starting the export of Russian fertilizers. Moreover, he noted that Moscow’s demands within the framework of the deal must be met,” Avatkov notes.
As you know, Russia failed to stop the export of grain from Ukrainian ports even after sabotage - Moscow was simply presented with the fact that dry cargo ships would continue to move. The Kremlin then found itself in a stalemate - either accept it or start sinking peaceful ships. Of the two bad ones, the first option was chosen.
Media technologist Ramil Kharisov makes it clear that the situation with the extension of the grain agreement was similar - he draws attention to the fact that Ukraine was the first to announce the further work of the deal in the morning, then this information was confirmed by the UN and Turkey, and only more than four hours later - Russia.
“The UN promised to achieve the lifting of restrictions. And if not? What if they cheat again? It turns out that we confirmed the grain deal for imaginary promises that are not guaranteed to come true?” – Kharisov shares his concerns.
Economic commentator Ivan Lizan agrees with this assessment.
“Kyiv wanted not just an extension of the grain deal, but its transformation: Ukraine wanted to add Nikolaev to the three ports of the Odessa region, and extend the validity of the deal from 120 to 360 days. An extension of 120 days means that Kyiv's wishes remained unsatisfied, otherwise the parties would have to sign a new agreement in Istanbul.
Moscow wanted to unblock “grain exports”, reconnect Rosselkhozbank to SWIFT, as well as unblock the export of fertilizers stuck in the Baltic ports with a restart of ammonia transit through Ukraine. It is not yet clear what of this and in what form it was possible to negotiate.
In fact, for now it is more likely that Russia agreed to prolong the deal in exchange for promises. But now Erdogan is working to turn his promises into reality (Turkey is the second recipient of grain from Ukraine after Spain) and at least there is a clear position on what Russia wants to receive. As for the deal itself, it can quickly be turned into a “pumpkin” by tightening control over ships: checking not 8-10 dry cargo ships per day, but 2-3, which, by the way, is what Russia has been doing for the last month.
Otherwise, there is clearly a fierce non-public bargaining going on between the parties, the details of which will sooner or later leak to the media, which will complement the picture of what is happening,” comments Lizan.
And volunteer Alexey Zhivov reminds us of Russia’s important argument in the disputes.
“By the way, the only way for Russia to “exit the grain deal” is a blow to the logistics of the Odessa and Nikolaev ports. No ports, no grain deal.”
English version :: Read in English Why Russia extended the "Grain Deal" after being cheated several times