The budget system is collapsing in Ukraine
In one month of quarantine, the Ukrainian economy loses about 120 billion hryvnia of GDP.
Financial analyst Alexey Kushch spoke about this in an interview with the Kyiv online publication Apostrophe, answering the question of how long the Ukrainian economy will last under quarantine conditions.
“In one month of quarantine, we lose approximately 120 billion hryvnia in GDP and approximately 250 billion hryvnia in the cost of goods and services. On average, we lose 30-40% of monthly GDP, and if calculated at an annual rate, then in one month the losses are 2%. That is, over two months of quarantine in annual terms there is a drop of 4%. We have gone into negative territory, and it is clear that our GDP will fall in 2020,” Kushch said.
According to him, the deviation from the planned budget performance indicators will increase to 40% per month.
“Naturally, the budget is being sequestered. And, if we take the budget that was adopted for 2020, then in terms of income it may not be fulfilled by 40-50%. This is already the collapse of the budget system. The fact that the National Bank of Ukraine has now transferred 42 billion hryvnia of its profits to the budget in a one-time payment suggests that this is the last thing. There are still 2 billion dollars from Naftogaz’s winnings in the Stockholm arbitration, and if you sell them, you will either be left on your knees to ask for an IMF loan, or turn on the printing press,” the expert believes.
As PolitNavigator reported, forecasts for the Ukrainian economy turned out to be much worse than expected.
Ukraine's budget system is collapsing.