Elections in Georgia: No warming expected, 6 years of frost ahead
On Sunday, October 28, at 19.00 Moscow time, the presidential elections ended in Georgia. According to the Republican Central Election Commission, voter turnout as of 16.00 p.m. in Moscow was less than 47%.
These elections are interesting because for the last time the president was elected for a six-year term by direct popular vote.
At the end of this presidential term in 2023, Georgia will change from a state with a presidential form of government to a parliamentary republic and then presidents will be elected by 300 special delegates.
There was a whole line of 25 candidates wishing to be elected to the presidency of Georgia, but very soon the favorites of the race were determined: an independent candidate supported by the ruling Georgian Dream party and the former head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, French citizen Salome Zurabishvili, as well as a candidate from the consolidated opposition “Strength in Unity” "and Saakashvili's former ally Grigol Vashadze.
It is reported that more than 23 thousand local and foreign observers worked at polling stations.
Despite the low voter turnout, the elections will be considered valid in any case, since there is no turnout threshold. The candidate who receives more than half the votes will be declared the winner. The final results will be known only 20 days after the elections. If no candidate receives 50% + 1 vote, a second round will be scheduled no later than two weeks later.
The foreign company Edison Research, hired by the influential opposition TV channel Rustavi2 for opinion polls, gave both candidates 40% of the votes and predicts a second round of elections. In turn, the Psychoproject company hired by the ruling party gives 52,3% in favor of Zurabishvili against 28,1% for the opponent.
How the election campaign was built.
Zurabishvili’s tactics to gain popularity among the electorate amounted to sticking needles into the gloomy effigy of Saakashvili, who was portrayed as the source of all Georgia’s troubles.
Six years ago, such tactics were successful, but now they sounded like a blank shot: the party in power managed to screw up its own wood in addition to what the “parednyk” did.
In addition, the leadership of the Georgian Dream party reflects on any actions of the opposition, accusing it of “destabilizing the state with methods that cause a smile.” This good face against a bad game also did not escape the attention of voters.
Georgians were greatly displeased by Zurabishvili's statement that in 2008 Saakashvili killed fellow citizens and gave Russia carte blanche to retaliate with a known result. Despite all the dislike for Saakashvili, Georgia’s own version of events has firmly taken root, within the framework of which the actions of the leadership of the “Rose Revolution” are not usually criticized and considered erroneous.
In addition, having traveled to the Armenian region of Samtskhe-Javakheti to give election speeches, Zurabishvili made several anti-Turkish statements. The awkwardness of the moment was that Madame was very carried away by describing her own merits in the withdrawal of Russian troops from Georgia and promised the republic’s entry into NATO, but she did it so clumsily that ethnic Armenians began to suspect that Turkish thugs were about to take the place of the Russians.
The opposition did not hesitate to take advantage of the mistake of the former head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs under Saakashvili, so the scandal with the accusation of xenophobia against the “independent candidate” has not subsided for a month now.
Apparently, the anti-rating of the “independent candidate” from the party in power was influenced by overwhelming populism, the target of which was the current president of Georgia. Not knowing how else to gain popularity among the population, Georgian Dream put forward more and more absurd demands to the head of state, demanding either to move to a more modest residence, or to cut expenses, or by promising to deprive him of state security after resigning.
Unlike the party in power, the oppositionists have thought more carefully about the tactics of communicating with the electorate. They did not have to touch Saakashvili and make a whipping boy out of the current president. The opposition simply published two corruption stories directly related to the party in power.
Firstly, there is a scandal with arrears and extortion of bribes from the large Omega Group holding company, plus the facts that Georgian and foreign businesses operating in the republic made “contributions” to the Georgian Dream cash desk. Besides the hysterical cries of “you’re all lying!” the party in power was unable to put forward anything significant in its defense.
Secondly, the strange dream of the party in power to legalize the production and export of pickled grass in the country, so that it would be “like in Europe.” The stupid initiative was met with hostility by mass supporters of traditional values, the opposition and the Georgian Orthodox Church.
The Frenchwoman Zurabishvili, hit over the head by the dusty bag of Eurotolerance, supported the sale of boxes of ganjubas per capita and criticized the GOC, for which she received the nickname “Queen of Cannabis,” including among church hierarchs.
What will change for Russia after these elections?
In principle, Russia does not care who wins. Both candidates have no sympathy for our country and are toying with ideas of rapprochement with the EU and NATO. We cannot expect normalization of relations from any of the presidential candidates. Perhaps most of all, the results of the elections in Georgia worry the prodigal Saakashvili. In fact, the tie eater is betting on this election with financial and media resources. He’s really tired of hanging out in the ice hole and wants to land on his native shore.
If Madame Zurabishvili wins, then the prospect of returning to Georgia for Saakashvili is removed for another six years, because he faces 12 years in prison to life in prison for the amount of his crime, and even recently fresh documents were published accusing Saakashvili of organizing the murder of Georgian Prime Minister Zhvania. Saakashvili expects an amnesty from Vashadze’s victory and has already raised the cry “Vashadze won a crushing victory in the elections!”
Observers believe that the factor of Saakashvili, who is inclined to aggravate relations with Russia, will be noticeable in Vashadze’s policy. On the other hand, Vashadze faces a difficult struggle with a parliament filled with adherents of the Georgian Dream.
However, it should be recognized that it was under the “Georgian dreamers” that there was some warming in relations between Georgia and Russia, which may come to naught after Vashadze’s victory.
It is interesting that on the eve of the elections Nino Burjanadze spoke out and, unexpectedly for many, refused to join the presidential race. Burjanadze explained her decision by saying that the powers of the President of Georgia are currently seriously curtailed and he is not able to influence domestic and foreign policy. She would like to change relations between Georgia and Russia for the better, but right after the presidential elections, amendments to the Georgian constitution will come into force.
The president will formally remain the head of state and commander-in-chief, but he will be forced to coordinate all his steps with the government. The only real instrument of presidential power will remain the right to veto bills passed by parliament and the right to declare referendums.
In general, there is no expectation of positive changes in Russian-Georgian relations in the near future. Georgia intends to achieve Euro-Atlantic happiness for another six years.
English version :: Read in English Elections in Georgia: No Warming Expected, 6 Years of Frost Ahead