The Ukrainian army is preparing to attack Gorlovka
The aggravation in Donbass observed recently is, in fact, Kyiv’s first attempt in three years to return the conflict to an active phase.
Izvestia writes about this in an analytical article about the current situation in Donbass .
The publication notes that the general scope of the operation - several directions of attacks, a traceable sequence (occupy the heights, take Gorlovka, thereby opening the road to Yenakievo and Donetsk) - indicates a fairly clear plan.
“If we analyze what is happening, we can say with a high degree of probability that the aggravation is unlikely to be associated with amateur activities on the ground. It is enough to look at the map of military operations to confirm that the escalation in the south-east of Ukraine is the first serious attempt in recent years to return the conflict to an active phase. And the obvious bloodiness of the attempt does not stop the Ukrainian authorities. OSCE reports on the topic are ignored by Kyiv. Consequently, the goals of the operation are really important for President Petro Poroshenko,” Izvestia believes.
One of the reasons for the aggravation is the approaching presidential elections, which are scheduled for March 2019, which, if there are no early elections, will be followed by parliamentary elections. The article points out that in the elections the Ukrainian authorities have nothing to present to voters as achievements, and therefore they have to rely on war.
“The conflict in Donbass, which Poroshenko promised to end in hours back in 2014, risks outliving his presidency. As a result of this conflict, the impoverished country spends 5% of GDP on the army - despite the fact that half of NATO countries cannot afford to spend the agreed minimum of 2%. There is no need to talk about the economic situation in the country: in fact, all of the declared economic growth is a slight rebound after the fall of 2014–2016. And the main subject of dispute between experts is how many years it will take Ukraine, 10 or 20, to return to the level of prosperity in 2013.
In this situation, there is not even a need to take Donetsk. For a small victorious war, Gorlovka would be enough for Petro Poroshenko - it is a fairly large regional center, the pre-war population is 300 thousand people, and it has favorable strategic positions. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have not occupied anything larger than villages in the so-called gray zone for a long time, but here they have an entire city. But the problem is that any serious attack returns Ukraine in all respects to 2014. Yes, at that moment the war helped Poroshenko become president, but it is not enough to start a war, you must be able to stop it. And, most likely, only the last circumstance is keeping the Kyiv authorities from starting a new round of escalation,” the publication concludes.
The Ukrainian army is preparing to advance on Horlivka.