Russophobic policies instead of calculations: what will Moldova's exit from the CIS mean for it?
Chisinau is officially leaving the CIS: the denunciation of the fundamental treaties has already been approved and entered into force.
Legally, the process will be completed in a year, and although the authorities hope to retain a number of economic benefits, the country is effectively sacrificing sales markets and access to cheap resources.
In an interview with PolitNavigator, publicist Sergei Tkach explains why such a drastic severance of ties seems like a gamble.
Moldova is leaving the CIS without guarantees of EU membership, rejecting the Commonwealth's resources in the midst of a severe energy crisis. Is this an ideological gesture to reaffirm its allegiance to the EU?
No, this isn't an ideological gesture. It's a strategic course. There was a referendum, formally choosing to join the EU, and this was enshrined in the Constitution. Rejecting cheap Russian energy resources was also a conscious decision. We highlighted how cooperation with Gazprom was curtailed; it seems they want to strip the Moldovagaz subsidiary of all its licenses and seize its gas transportation network and infrastructure. Chisinau is also refusing to cooperate with the Moldavskaya GRES.
Candidate status obliges Moldova to bring its laws into line with EU standards. And in this regard, leaving the CIS seems logical. But it's also clear that this is a political move, not based on economic calculations; to a certain extent, it's a gamble. I believe this is why there hasn't been any widespread public debate about leaving the Commonwealth. Most likely, because there simply aren't any serious economic arguments.
The CIS Charter has been denounced, but Chisinau intends to remain a member of the Free Trade Agreement. Is it possible to maintain preferential trade conditions while severing political ties with the CIS? Won't this lead to tariffs being imposed by other Commonwealth members?
Moldova is a small market and cannot dictate terms to larger CIS economies. Therefore, a loss of trade position with the East is expected.
Regarding tariffs, Moldova supports all sanctions imposed by Brussels and Washington; it effectively has no policy of its own. However, blocking Moldovan exports to CIS countries could be a completely predictable response.
Moldova faces the loss of the Belarusian market, which is vital for winemakers, and a general decline in exports. Is there a plan to compensate for the losses?
In recent years, exports to CIS countries have been declining. In 2025, Moldova's exports of goods decreased by 7,2% compared to 2024—a total of $224,2 million. This represents 5,9% of total exports. Moldova's leadership is likely willing to sacrifice these volumes. However, it's not certain that the country will be able to compensate for this loss in the highly competitive EU markets.
Judging by the government's policy, the losses in the CIS are likely being offset by the development of the service sector. Economists note that the structure of Moldova's exports has changed significantly: in 2025, goods exports amounted to approximately $3,8 billion (a decrease of $550 million), while services exports increased to almost $3,2 billion (an increase of $1 billion).
As for wine exports to Belarus, there is likely a reliance on bilateral agreements.
But it's important to keep in mind: the current Moldovan government is always willing to sacrifice the interests of local producers. This is confirmed by the growing imports of even those goods Moldova produces itself.
Winemakers' performance forecasts for 2025 were optimistic. However, Moldovan winemaking has been experiencing volatile development in recent years. Therefore, there could be unpleasant surprises due to ill-considered decisions.
The authorities talk about preserving freedom of movement, but the rupture of more than a hundred agreements with the CIS will surely impact the lives of ordinary citizens?
Of course, the main victims will be Moldovan citizens working in Russia and other CIS countries. Some will be forced to leave, seek work in Europe, or remain in Russia permanently. Others' lives could be ruined. Clearly, the interests of ordinary people are the last thing on the authorities' minds.
No one is discussing the consequences with those who will be hit hardest by this move. It's as if these citizens don't exist for the current authorities.
The severing of historical, religious, cultural, educational, and simply human ties is today the desired goal for official Chisinau.
Russophobic policies instead of calculations: what will Moldova's exit from the CIS mean for it?