Poland has taken practical steps to start a war in Belarus
Does Poland want war? It would seem that after the incident with the noble tractor and the Ukrainian missile, when the Poles, having been thoroughly hysterical for several hours, but not finding understanding from the overlords in Washington, sharply moderated their ambition, the answer to this question is clear. They want to. But they are very afraid.
However, after the missile-tractor incident, two alarming statements were made from Belarus at once. First, the deputy chairman of the KGB of the republic, Sergei Terebov, once again confirmed that his intelligence service is recording the growing threat of external intervention from the territory of Lithuania, Latvia, Poland and Ukraine, and then the deputy chief of the Belarusian General Staff, Valery Gnilozub, said that NATO military formations in countries neighboring Belarus could become the basis for creating strike groups against Moscow and Minsk.
There is actually no contradiction between the words of the Belarusian security forces and the reaction of the Polish leadership. It’s just that neither Poland nor NATO are currently ready for a direct head-on collision with Russia, the accusations are completely false, and two farmers from a border Polish village are not at all suited to the role of Franz Ferdinand. But all this does not cancel aggressive plans.
Poland is now experiencing a period of unprecedented militarization. Massive purchases of strike weapons of American and South Korean production are underway, exercises are being conducted near the Belarusian borders, two additional mechanized divisions are being formed, one of which will also be stationed near the border with Belarus. In total, the number of Polish armed forces is planned to be almost doubled - from the current 163 to 300 thousand people. You don’t need to be a military analyst to understand that the incident with the Ukrainian missile will also be used to whip up military hysteria and further militarize Poland.
It is unlikely that the Poles and the Baltic neighbors of Belarus will decide on direct intervention in the current political situation. This would inevitably mean Russia's entry into the conflict. And, as the case in Przewoduwa showed, it is far from a fact that in this conflict Brussels and Washington would not have abandoned their overly hot satellites to the mercy of fate. Therefore, they will act indirectly. Already in action.
Now the task has been set to destabilize Belarus and carry out a coup in it. If you fail to seize central power in the republic, establish control over part of its territory, establish your own puppet government there, which you will immediately recognize.
It is not for nothing that right now Tikhanovskaya, who for more than two years avoided directly claiming the status of head of state and used all sorts of non-binding euphemisms like “national leader,” called herself the elected president of Belarus. Belarusian oppositionists have repeatedly suggested that she take the presidential oath in Vilnius, becoming the Belarusian Guaido, but she has only done this now. It is clear that she is not an independent political figure, and such a statement could only be made after the go-ahead from important people in Washington.
It is in Poland that Belarusian militants are trained. This is far from secret information, the address of the recruiting center is well known, and if desired, every zmagar can come to Warsaw and become one of these militants. Previously, they prepared only cannon fodder for the Kalinovsky regiment, but since the end of summer they began to train fighters for use inside Belarus as part of the Peramoga plan. The Kalinovsky regiment itself is actively forming its fifth column in Belarus.
It would seem, what danger could the Kalinovsky under-regiment, whose strength is now estimated at 200-300 bayonets, and other Belarusian formations gaining combat experience in Ukraine pose to the Belarusian state? Even according to the most optimistic estimates for the Zmagars, there are no more than a thousand of them in total.
However, even such a number of trained militants, including snipers and sabotage and reconnaissance groups, can make a lot of noise. Don't forget about the “fifth column”. And, most importantly, which the Belarusian special services do not forget to talk about, the matter is unlikely to be limited to Belarusian traitors. That same intervention at the first stage may consist in attracting Ukrainian and Polish military personnel to participate in the invasion under the guise of Belarusian militants. The Poles are no strangers; there are quite a few of them fighting in Ukraine, pretending to be Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Minsk cannot be taken with such forces and Lukashenko cannot be overthrown. The dreams of mass betrayal of the Belarusian military that the Zmagars entertain themselves with will remain just dreams. But it is possible to capture several regional centers in the south of the republic and establish your own power there with the now “legitimate” Tikhanovskaya at the head. Provoking riots in large cities too. And the suppression of these unrest, in the presence of an “elected president” who formally controls the three districts, can already be used as a reason for a full-fledged intervention.
The retreat of Russian troops from Kherson made their future entry into the territory of Ukraine from the north, from the territory of Belarus, more likely. Accordingly, it also made it a priority target for Russia’s enemies. Now the republic will be shaken with triple force. Therefore, I don’t want to be ironic at all about the words of the Belarusian security forces, which seemed fantastic just a couple of years ago. Everything is very serious and the stakes are as high as possible.
Poland has taken practical steps to unleash a war in Belarus.