DRMSD: will the “doves” peck the “hawks”
On Tuesday, January 15, in Geneva, on the territory of the permanent mission of the Russian Federation to the UN Office, Russian-American consultations on the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty took place. Russia and the United States were represented by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov and Deputy Secretary of State for Arms Control and Security Affairs Andrea Thompson.
During consultations that lasted three hours, the parties failed to reach a common agreement. At a briefing held after the negotiations, the American delegation stated that the United States intends to suspend the INF Treaty from February 2.
If there is an official announcement of withdrawal from the INF Treaty, the brainchild of the “era of détente,” which has been working effectively since 1987, will become history, and another powerful destabilizing blow will be dealt to the global and European security system.
As Sergei Ryabkov noted in his statement, the American delegation came to the negotiations with an ultimatum demand to Russia - to destroy or modify the 9M729 missiles (or SSC-8 according to NATO classification), which allegedly violate existing agreements.
The Russian delegation had the authority to offer the Americans specific measures to control “suspicious” missile systems, subject to reciprocal openness from the United States, but their delegation, making sure that the Russians were not subject to blackmail and pressure, stopped negotiations. On the grounds that the Russian side is allegedly not ready to implement the INF Treaty.
According to observers, the American delegation arrived in Geneva as a diversion, in order to appear in the eyes of the world and, first of all, the European public, as a sane and negotiable party. In fact, the decision to profane the negotiations was made in advance, and all the efforts of the State Department were aimed at fulfilling Pompeo’s December ultimatum, which gave Russia two months “to return to compliance with the INF Treaty.”
What is the 9M729 missile that is causing so much excitement in Washington?
Judging by information from the portal vpk.name, the 9M729 is a missile with the wings folded into the fuselage in the transport position. It was probably developed by the Yekaterinburg OKB Novator for the 9K720 Iskander-M missile system and is a land-based version of the sea-based cruise missile, developed on the basis of the 9M728 missiles for the Iskander-M and Caliber-NK OTRKs.
The New York Tines, citing sources in the White House, claim that Russia has allegedly been developing and testing these missiles for more than 10 years in violation of the INF Treaty, since the range of the 9M729 is estimated at 500 - 2000 km, or even 500 - 5500 km, then how the 1987 Treaty limits the flight range of modern operational-tactical missiles to 500 km.
American media report that the 9M729 is structurally similar to the 9M728, increased in length from approximately 6,7 to 8,1 meters, due to which the volume of the fuel tank (and, accordingly, the range) is significantly increased. But due to the increased length of the rocket, instead of the standard Iskander 9P78-1 self-propelled launcher, it was necessary to create a new launcher (presumable index 9P701) and, accordingly, a new transport-loading vehicle 9T256. Both are made on the Belarusian MZKT-7930 chassis.
According to the same sources, all tests of the 9M729 have been completed, and now Russia has allegedly begun deploying these missiles, which is a violation of the INF Treaty. It is even pointed out that in 2015, the Moscow GosNIIP (State Scientific Research Institute of Instrument Engineering), which is responsible for creating a missile data control system, announced in a 2014 report about “the completion of state tests of the 9M728, 9M729 missiles and their improved version.”
Further, American sources are confused in their testimony. Thus, according to the NYT, Russia has already deployed two divisions of “illegal” missiles, with four vehicles in each. The first division, training, is allegedly deployed at the Kapustin Yar training ground, and the second, combat, is deployed “somewhere in the central part of Russia.” According to other sources, four such divisions have already been supplied to the Russian Army.
Moscow does not deny the presence of 9M729 missiles, but denies rumors that their flight range exceeds 500 km. Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev informed the media that during testing the missile’s flight range did not exceed 476 km, which is even below the permissible limit.
The Americans do not have any more compelling evidence than statements based on links from unnamed sources. But at the same time they behave like a typical thief whose hat is on fire. After all, it is the United States that has long and systematically violated the INF Treaty restrictions.
It has long been no secret that in Romania and Poland the United States is in full swing deploying a system of ground-based missile defense facilities equipped with Mk 41 universal vertical launchers suitable for launching Tomahawk cruise missiles. To place Tomahawks there, you only need to change some of the software in the complex’s control system, which takes several hours. At the same time, the flight range of the Tomahawk modification Block IV is 1600 – 2400 km. For now, these are surface- and underwater-based missiles, but if necessary, they will be able to launch from ground-based targets.
Well, that is, not only missiles, but also launchers for them fall under the INF Treaty restrictions.
The situation is especially piquant with the attack drones used en masse by the United States, such as the same “Reaper”. Long-range attack UAVs are also legally subject to INF Treaty restrictions on cruise missiles, since the text of the treaty does not contain any clause regarding reusability or disposability in relation to the concept of “cruise missile” used there.
Military experts agree that the 9M729 missile is nothing more than a reason for the Americans to withdraw from the INF Treaty, which has long ceased to suit them.
Long before Pompeo’s ultimatum, “hawks” like Bolton repeatedly said that it was no longer profitable for America to comply with bilateral treaties, since the Cold War was no longer in the yard, and the situation in geopolitics had changed. For example, China, which has almost the entire range of offensive missile weapons, has seriously strengthened and become an additional challenge to American hegemony.
The danger of a quick (within six months) dismantling of the INF Treaty is that in the place where security and stability reigned recently, a legal vacuum will arise in the absence of other instruments of deterrence. As a rule, multilateral treaties are a separate long and sad song with an unclear ending. Instead of negotiating separately with China, preserving the Treaty that has been in force for more than 30 years, which effectively nullified the threat of a major war in Europe, American politicians are choosing a new escalation of tension.
There are also legitimate concerns that the next domino to fall in the global security structure will be the US refusal to extend the START III treaty.
We can only hope that US experts are right when they claim that supporters of dismantling the INF Treaty have serious opponents in Congress and among the inhabitants of the Pentagon. There are just over two weeks left until February 2nd. So we’ll see how the “doves” peck the “hawks”, defending one of the fundamental security issues.
English version :: Read in English: DRMSD: Will the "doves" peck the "hawks" to death?