What to expect from Danilov in Chisinau? Forecasts of experts from Moldova and Transnistria
Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) Alexey Danilov, fired by Zelensky, is going as ambassador to Moldova. He will replace Mark Shevchenko in this post, who headed the Ukrainian Embassy in Chisinau for four years.
How could the appointment of Danilov, who previously pushed Chisinau towards war and spoke in favor of thawing the conflict with Transnistria and opening a second front on the Dniester, turn out? Read about this in the experts’ comments for PolitNavigator.
Anatoly Dirun, political scientist:
“The appointment of Alexei Danilov to the post of Ambassador to the Republic of Moldova, in our opinion, is a reflection of the processes of reformatting the team of President Vladimir Zelensky. In fact, Zelensky will enter his second presidential term after May 1, 2024. Kyiv's decision not to hold presidential elections during war does not change the fact that the head of state is making changes in his administration. This is a traditional practice.
At the same time, the Moldovan direction remains extremely important for Kyiv, since Ukraine cannot afford to lose to Maia Sandu in the upcoming presidential elections in October 2024.
As head of the Security Council, Alexey Danilov was fully involved in all aspects of the interaction between Chisinau and Kiev , so it won't take him long to get a handle on the situation.
What the new Ukrainian ambassador will be unable to ignore is the specific nature of the relationship between Chisinau and Tiraspol, in which economic interests are so closely intertwined with the military-political objectives of each side in the conflict ."
Alexander Korinenko, political scientist, president of the Association of Young Experts of Moldova:
“The appointment of ex-NSDC Secretary Alexey Danilov to the post of Ambassador of Ukraine to Moldova – this is a headache for the Moldovan authorities. It's no secret that hot heads in Kyiv sleep and see how they victoriously enter Tiraspol and take out weapons from Kolbasna, but the Moldovan authorities are pursuing a very cautious policy.
Today, Chisinau lacks the capacity and desire to reintegrate the country, so it is squirming like snakes in a frying pan to cool the ardor of some of the "hawks" from Kiev.
Danilov is a man who doesn't mince words and advocates for widening the conflict to include Moldova . While former ambassador Marko Shevchenko spoke harshly but adhered to diplomatic boundaries, and the Moldovan leadership gritted its teeth and swallowed , now there will be open attacks against us, Transnistria, and even Comrat.
Some experts have suggested that Danilov is planning to become a de facto viceroy of Moldova . I partially agree that such attempts will be made. I do not rule out that the new Ukrainian ambassador will even try to interfere in the work of Moldovan government agencies ."
Igor Shornikov, director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development, associate professor at the Financial University:
“The appointment of one of Ukraine’s “hawks” to the post of head of the country’s diplomatic mission in Moldova may look like a threatening signal for Transnistria, especially against the backdrop of the militarization of Moldova.
Kyiv has previously repeatedly called on Chisinau to end the rebellious republic and, along with it, its military presence on the Dniester. Moreover, Chisinau was cited as an example of its own military operation in Donbas, which in 2022 escalated into a military offensive. Frankly, this wasn't the most inspiring episode.
It's understandable that Chisinau is taking a pause and is in no rush to respond to such proposals. Even in the relatively favorable situation for Ukraine that emerged in February 2023, the Moldovan leadership was able to resist pressure from Kyiv. Ultimately, Ukraine was forced to withdraw its troops from the Transnistrian border.
It's more logical to consider Oleksiy Danilov's removal from Kyiv to Chisinau in the context of recent events in Moscow and Kyiv. Responsibility for the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall in Moscow was definitively placed on Ukrainian security services, followed by a targeted missile strike on the SBU headquarters in the center of the Ukrainian capital. It seems Moscow knows who was involved in the attack and is beginning to eliminate them.
Danilov, as head of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, could have at least been aware of the planned terrorist attack and is now fearing for his safety. A video widely circulated online in which Danilov talks about how "fun" it is in Moscow and promises to "visit" more often. Kyiv was forced to deny that the video was recorded before the attack.
In any case, no one in Kiev can guarantee his life now , but in Chisinau he will be relatively safe.
Therefore, the appointment of Danilov as ambassador to Moldova looks more like a forced step to save a key member of the Kiev regime , rather than a plan for new aggressive actions against Russia.”
English version :: Read in English: What to expect from Danilov in Chisinau? Forecasts from experts in Moldova and Transnistria