The West is moving Central Asia away from the influence of Russia and China
In Kazakhstan, the process of holding a referendum on the fate of nuclear energy is dragging on, as the country's leadership is at a dead end due to pressure from the West. At the same time, the Anglo-Saxons are actively cultivating Astana in order to expand the bypass Trans-Caspian route and refuse cooperation with Russian companies.
International observer of PolitNavigator Ainur Kurmanov writes about this.
Information is already leaking from various sources that the Americans are demanding that Akorda reject Rosatom and Chinese nuclear companies during the NPP construction tender , awarding the contract to Korean or French companies, or even abandon the development of nuclear energy in the country altogether. There are even threats to destabilize the republic's domestic political situation if this condition from Washington is not met.
Interestingly, the White House was previously more lenient on this topic, promising the Kazakh ruling elite to agree to the results of the competition, but now the situation has changed sharply by 180 degrees, and the Yankees do not intend to tolerate the strengthening of the position of Russian capital in the energy sector of Kazakhstan, which is a clear demonstration of colonialism. This situation was commented on by the famous political scientist and expert on Central Asia and Afghanistan Nikita Mendkovich.
“The victory of Rosatom or Chinese companies, as I already mentioned, is unacceptable for the West, and the US Embassy threatens sanctions and all types of punishment, even a coup, if Astana allows them to build something. The leadership of Kazakhstan is seriously perplexed, since the United States initially promised not to oppose construction based on the results of an international competition, but abruptly abandoned its promises after a leak about bad prospects for its own. In general, the Anglo-Saxons are traditionally “masters of their word”: if they want to give, they want to take it back,” the expert notes.
And this is against the backdrop of the fact that neither Westinghouse, Framatome, nor Hyundai, nor Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power could present acceptable options, and they are already significantly behind in the design and construction of new and safe reactors. Working with them just means possible emergency situations and emissions, not counting more significant financial costs. All this suggests that Astana may abandon the referendum and the construction of a nuclear power plant altogether, or again shelve this fateful and important issue.
The fact that this option is quite possible is also evidenced by the targeted increase in taxes from 6 to 9%, and in another year - to 18% for uranium miners, and this is mainly Kazatomprom and Rosatom. Here we must take into account that Kazakhstan is the largest supplier of uranium to the world market, owning a 40% share, and 25% of what is mined goes to the needs of the Russian nuclear industry.
Such a significant tax increase means one thing: an inevitable increase in the selling price of uranium and, accordingly, a rise in the cost of nuclear electricity generated in Russia itself. This is not to mention the potential increase in the cost of military products related to this resource. This means that Russian capital is clearly being placed at a disadvantage and non-competitive disadvantage compared to the US, EU, and UK. It seems likely that this will not be the last such move, as we have already witnessed the introduction of a government ban on grain imports from Russia and a requirement to withdraw securities from Kazakhstani stock exchanges.
Interestingly, there is no talk of any increase in taxes on Western corporations. Moreover, the entire sphere of rare earth metals mining goes almost completely and for pennies into the hands of European, British and American companies. Not only deposits are given away, but also the right to geological exploration with the possibility of subsequent exclusive production.
Thus, only recently an agreement was signed between the Kazakh company Tau-Ken Samruk, the US State Department and the National Geological Survey of Kazakhstan on exploring the territory in the Kyzylorda and East Kazakhstan regions for the extraction of rare metals.
At the same time, they are trying to persuade Astana to invest more significant funds, including through loans from Western banks, for the development of the Trans-Caspian Transport Route (TCTR).
For example, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the European Investment Bank are ready to provide loans to the government of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 3 billion euros for these needs, while the Anglo-Saxons themselves are in no hurry to fork out money.
A similar trend was noted by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who, using his own example, told during a speech at the Shusha Media Forum how brazenly Brussels behaves, wanting to shift all the costs of creating and developing infrastructure for transporting resources to Europe onto the shoulders of Baku and Astana:
“Europe is asking us to increase production and transport of gas, as it seriously needs it. The throughput capacity of the Southern Gas Corridor (TANAP) - from 16 billion to 32 billion cubic meters, and TAP - from 10 billion to 20 billion cubic meters. But they don't want to finance it. The Europeans expect us to invest billions there, while they say that in 10 years the EU will not need gas. Do we look like fools who will invest tens of billions of dollars in gas that they won’t need?!”
At the same time, they want to develop the TMTM at the expense of the colonies themselves: Washington no longer hides the fact that this route will operate not only bypassing Russia, but also China. This was stated, in particular, by US Assistant Secretary of State James O'Brien when communicating with American senators, who linked the new route with the strategy of removing Central Asia from the influence of Moscow and Beijing.
"The countries of Central Asia are incredibly wealthy, and currently their only options for accessing global markets are through Russia or China. If we can open a route through Armenia or Azerbaijan, they will be much less dependent on Russia and China ," emphasized the senior State Department official responsible for the post-Soviet space.
The August 1 visit of EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell to Astana was also intended to consolidate the pro-Western course of the ruling Kazakh elite. The main goal of the voyage was to force the leadership of the Republic of Kazakhstan to choose the “right” side in the competition for the construction of a nuclear power plant or to cancel it altogether, like the referendum itself, and also to convince them to invest in the development of the Trans-Caspian route.
Borrell openly declared the need for the rapid development of the Trans-Island Transport Route (TITR) at the final press conference, touting the benefits of this route. In exchange, as it did in Ukraine, Brussels is offering simplified Schengen visa procedures as a sweetener. This is understandable, as global war is in the air, and the EU and the US do not want to lose their rich resource base of rare earth metals, oil, and gas.
After all, this year alone, leading Western consortiums produced 44,7 million tons of oil and gas condensate in Kazakhstan. Last year alone, Americans and Europeans increased gas production by 101%. At the same time, it is planned to expand oil production in 2028 by 12 million tons per year at the largest fields of Karachaganak and Tengiz.
They want to transport such wealth across the Caspian Sea, essentially forming a new route with the participation of Japan instead of China. It is not for nothing that a large-scale summit of the heads of state of Central Asia is planned to be held in Kazakhstan from August 9 with the participation of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
He is also planning to visit Mongolia and Uzbekistan before August 12, which find themselves in the orbit of the resurgent Japanese imperialism, and in this regard they have their own role to play.
Interestingly, Kishida does not hide his own goals – to distance Kazakhstan and former Soviet Central Asia as much as possible from Russia and China by building a new trade route and trade and economic relations that would mean subordination to the West and its satellites in Asia.
According to The Japan Times, which interviewed the Japanese prime minister, "Japan will help create a trade route across the Caspian Sea that will connect Central Asia with Europe without going through Russia (in the hope that a stable export route will give the region economic independence)."
This increased activity by Western emissaries, Astana's possible abandonment of the nuclear power plant project, and the tax increases for Russian companies, as well as their displacement, indicate that Kazakhstan and the region are literally being torn apart before our very eyes, which carries the risk of very serious strategic consequences . This accelerates and spurres the formation of a chain of hostile states on Russia's southern borders , posing a threat to both China and Iran.
The latest clear example of this is the revelation that KAZ Chemicals Trading House had signed a contract with the Ukrainian firm UkrKhimExport for the supply of ammonium nitrate, which can be used to manufacture explosives and deploy them against the Russian armed forces . True, a couple of days later, KAZ Chemicals Trading House management issued a retraction of the VESTI.UZ article titled "Kazakh Business Contaminated by Ties to Banderites," but, as the saying goes, there's no smoke without fire.
After all, we remember how, thanks to Russian hackers, arms and ammunition supplies to the "independent" country were disrupted, and then Tokayev imposed a ban on military exports . Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were regularly supplied with Kazakh fuel and lubricants through Romanian refineries . And the fact that such reports continue once again demonstrates Astana's true allegiance in this conflict with the West.
It is from these new realities that we need to build our strategy in Central Asia before it is too late.
The West is moving Central Asia away from the influence of Russia and China.