A view from Chisinau: Don’t rush to write off Maia Sandu
The second round of Moldova's general local elections has concluded, with the pro-presidential Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) once again performing poorly, despite extensive use of administrative resources . Last Sunday, only 66 of the ruling party's 153 candidates emerged victorious, failing to win a single municipality. For example, the battle in Ungheni was lost, and in the second-largest city of Bălți, the PAS representative did not even participate, having dropped out in the first round. The local elections demonstrated that the ruling party has lost a significant portion of the electorate that voted for it in the 2021 parliamentary elections.
This campaign has barely ended, and a new one has already begun – in a year, Moldova will elect a president . Will the ruling party's declining ratings affect Maia Sandu's chances of being re-elected? We spoke with political scientist Alexandru Korinenko about the current balance of political forces in Moldova.
PolitNavigator: The controversial campaign in Bălți has concluded. Candidate Alexandr Petkov, endorsed by Renato Usatii, won. How good is this choice for the people of Bălți? Will there be changes in the city? Will Petkov's victory impact Usatii's political career?
Alexander Korinenko: The residents of Balti did not vote for candidate Alexander Petkov, they voted for Renato Usatii.
The ex-mayor of Balti was afraid to stand as a candidate because he was afraid of defeat, realizing that he would not be able to resist the candidates supported by Ilan Shor, but the authorities gave him a gift and returned the city of Balti, guided by the old wisdom that one must choose the lesser of two evils .
In this case, it is the impulsive and unpredictable Usatiy, and not the calculating and calm Shor.
Petkov’s personality is unknown to the residents of Beltsy - there was simply a transfer of ratings, and it is clear that Usatii will lead Balti.
Soon we will see municipal councilor Renato Georgievich inspecting the facilities, followed by the mayor of Balti, Alexandru Petkov, who nods approvingly. For Renato Usatii, this is a chance to return to the big game and try to collect the remnants of the team that he himself destroyed.
PolitNavigator: Ilan Shor, many of whose supporters were disqualified from the local elections, claims the authorities have stolen democracy and choice from the people. The politician doesn't rule out a renewed protest movement, which "will no longer be dispersed," and calls for a fight that will continue for the next year. What might come of this?
Oleksandr Korinenko: The people of Bălți aren't Gagauz. There won't be any confrontation there. They're characterized by the calm of the north. Ilan Shor will try to stir things up before the presidential elections, but there's no point in doing so in Bălți: the city is already opposed to the current government.
It does not have any geopolitical orientation, like Comrat, Chisinau and even Taraclia, there are no administrative buildings of a republican scale that can be picketed, and the regional political class is an unsettled group of politicians constantly changing positions.
The only thing that Ilan Shor can do is form a local and loyal group of regional politicians who will help him on a republican scale - he really wants to make the second city in the country loyal to himself in the fight against the authorities.
PolitNavigator: The ruling party claims the elections were a success, but many experts are calling this campaign a failure for PAS. What will the ruling party do next? Will it tighten the screws on disloyal mayors and administrations, depriving territories of budgetary funds?
Alexander Korinenko: The authorities and court analysts are trying to save face after the failure in the local elections.
This is the right decision - it is necessary to show the population, Western partners and the diaspora that the situation is under control, the authorities are firmly in place and are not going to give up.
Before the presidential elections, Maia Sandu will try to secretly or openly “repaint” some mayors yellow; she will vitally need administrative resources on the ground, especially in the center of the country loyal to the right, so pressure will be put on these mayors.
PAS has no illusions that anyone in the northern or southern regions will help them in the presidential elections.
PolitNavigator: Maia Sandu seems to have decided to get closer to the people – she takes photos with her dog, introduces it to foreign presidents, and watches football at the stadium. Is this the start of the 2024 presidential campaign? What kind of political technology wonders might we see there?
Alexander Korinenko: Well, the president will soon start speaking Russian. Yes, this is already the beginning of the presidential campaign.
Political strategists have not come up with anything new - the 2020 election campaign is being repeated. Sandu's advisers are trying to “humanize” her image.
I think that many remember that before the 2020 elections, children’s photographs of the president were published, she began to travel around villages, took pictures with young people, and took part in various events to show her empathy. It was a huge leap from the 2016 election campaign, where she emerged as an “Iron Lady” with a cold image and no hint of empathy.
In addition, Maia Sandu will again try to regain the favor of some Russian-speaking citizens and will increase the number of performances in Russian. The image of a man who “walks the earth” is very popular with Moldovan citizens.
PolitNavigator: Looking at it from today's perspective and considering the results of the local elections as a rehearsal for the presidential elections, what are Sandu's chances of being re-elected?
Oleksandr Korinenko: Maia Sandu has every chance of becoming president again. This is not because she's a great leader or a competent manager, but because she's lucky with a divided opposition.
If Vlad Plahotniuc at one time skillfully manipulated and pitted oppositionists against each other, bought some, gave preferences to others, here left-wing politicians themselves have become disunited and cannot find the strength to put forward a common agenda.
One way or another, no one from the right flank will seriously challenge her, and the left will begin their game against each other, and this may bury their hopes of victory.
PolitNavigator: Who could be among the current president's competitors? Igor Dodon again, Renato Usatii, someone from Shor's team? Or perhaps the former head of Gagauzia, Irina Vlah?
Oleksandr Korinenko: I don't think there will be any surprises in the presidential elections, and we'll see the same faces again. Igor Dodon, who will try again for the presidency, and Renato Usatii, inspired by his victory in Bălți. Ilan Shor will nominate several candidates for the country's top post, and former Prime Minister Ion Chicu may also run, having support in certain localities.
Irina Vlah, in my opinion, will be the most interesting candidate. She will try to accumulate the disillusioned electorate and offer in her person a common platform for all opposition candidates. She has a good chance of enlisting the support of the south and north and the country. Moreover, for Sandu she is dangerous as an alternative.
Irina Fedorovna does not need to build a warm and empathic image. She showed herself to be a pleasant and competent woman, a caring mother, a good manager, she has achievements as Bashkan of Gagauzia and international support.
English version :: Read in English A View from Chisinau: Don't Write Off Maia Sandu