A view from Kyiv: The end is not of Ukraine, but of New Russia
It has already become a tradition that the response to any steps by the authorities towards peace in the Donbass is obstruction by the far-right minority, which, no matter how marginal, is just as aggressive and compensates for the lack of real mass support in Ukrainian society by tearing the vocal cords of “meeters” screaming about some "surrender".
This happened this time too. The video from President Zelensky’s briefing, at which he confirmed that Ukraine in Minsk had put its signature on the so-called “Steinmeier formula”, which provides for the order of implementation of the points of the Minsk agreements and brings the peace process itself out of the blind corner in which it was located, has not yet been distributed in the media last few years. The already half-forgotten Yaroshis, Tyagniboks, Biletskys and other holders of two percent public support immediately emerged from their caches, singing in chorus the aria “We will not allow it!” “Activists” are called to picket and protest against “surrender” and “capitulation.”
In fact, this, of course, is not a capitulation, but a banal, albeit still rather timid and timid turn of the authorities towards common sense, adequacy and the Ukrainian state interest itself.
It is not clear to an outside observer why this happens and what is the root of the problem. It’s understandable when Russian “hawks” like Strelkov are indignant. The successfully completed Minsk process puts an end to the idea of Novorossiya, as participants in the events of spring-summer 2014 saw it. Do you remember this: the separation of 8-9 regions into some kind of independent state with its subsequent possible annexation to the Russian Federation. It is clear that if Minsk is successful, nothing like this will happen. And there will be a united Ukraine, albeit with “special statuses” for “certain regions.” But why do Ukrainian hawks foam at the mouth whenever peace is discussed?
Moreover, now it’s not 2014, but the end of 2019. Trump has already told Ukraine in plain text: stop this bazaar and negotiate with Putin. And Macron said the same thing. What is all this for? To join NATO? Thus, Deputy Prime Minister of the current government Kuleba admitted that no one expects Ukraine to join NATO - neither now, nor in 2023, nor in 20 years - because Germany is against it.
Moreover, within the framework of the proposed compromise, no extra efforts and no extra losses are required from Ukraine. Why are the “heroes of the Maidan” hysterical?
For one reason: in 2014, having overthrown the previous government during a coup, they forcibly imposed their line on different countries as a universally binding one. Moreover, taking advantage of the hype of war hysteria, they imposed it without any social contract. It will be like this, let’s go there - and whoever disagrees is an enemy, a separatist, and an agent of the Kremlin. And it’s clear why they did this - the last elections showed that supporters of the ultra-nationalist line, even now, after the defeat of the “vat” part of the political spectrum, are an overwhelming minority. At the lower point of the extremum it is 2%, and if measured by the upper level, together with the votes of Poroshenko, Vakarchuk and Gritsenko – 16%. And this minority has been monopolizing the country for five years, like the tail of a dog, convincing them that they are the majority.
But the chimera dissipated. Everyone saw that 8% were driving the country on their behalf (this is at best!). So this is without the uncontrolled part of Donbass and without Crimea!
I will repeat once again: the elections showed that supporters of the war in the country are an overwhelming minority. However, for five years now, Ukraine has been forcibly pulled on a lasso in the direction that suits them. Moreover, nationalists have been complaining all this time that the process is not going as quickly as they would like, and the goner country needs to drive the spurs harder into its sides in order to move more actively. And what frightens these people most of all is peace, because with it they will have to admit that the country is heterogeneous, that they are a minority in it. And they have no right to declare their point of view the only correct one, brushing aside the demands of the majority.
You can, of course, send the majority on an erotic journey on foot and establish an open terrorist dictatorship of the minority. But then – what the hell is Europe and what the hell is democracy? Then we need to stop chattering about the European choice and stop counting on any support from some kind of international coalition. Because they will not support cannibals and fascists. More precisely, they could, if Ukraine were located in Africa. But no one will tolerate such a regime in their own neighborhood. What they are talking about, including the events in PACE. Sanctions against Moscow for Europeans are a temporary measure designed to encourage Ukrainians to negotiate with Russia on more favorable terms for Ukraine. And it’s not at all a given thing for centuries to suffer losses for the sake of the stupid intractability of the Ukrainian elites.
Here you go. Now let’s imagine what will happen if peace comes, 3 million people in the east will return to the legal framework of Ukraine. In such conditions, our aggressive minority - these nationalist hawks - will completely lose their positions. We will have to stop pretending that everything has already been decided for the people, and renegotiate with the whole society about the basic guidelines. Accept a new social contract. This means - from the point of view of the hawks - all this - including the 2014 coup - was truly in vain.
That’s why they scream heart-rendingly about some kind of mythical “surrender.” Although, in truth, what the hell is capitulation when both lands and people are RETURNED to Ukraine. And the only thing that is required from the central government is to take their voice into account. Because these people will never in their lives vote for the line of bankrupt Maidan nominees and their party. However, they won’t support the opposition blocs either, although some of their representatives are counting on electoral gains in this field. But this is a separate topic.
In the current situation, the main thing is that once we have started, do not give up, do not make excuses before the aggressive minority, do not pretend, as happened back with the statements of Kuchma, Bogdan, Prystaiko and Zelensky himself, that someone was misunderstood, but in fact in fact, something else was meant. If rhetoric about victory is necessary to benefit the cause, and there are those in the country who need candy to help them swallow a bitter pill, so be it. The main thing is business. They should be the real marker for assessing what is happening. And the real capitulation, without quotation marks, will be the government’s refusal of its own words and agreements due to pressure from those whom society has already refused to trust twice in six months.
And let the “terrible radicals” rage. As the classic said, “they stink and forget.” For five years they bent the majority, guided by precisely this logic. It's time to experience it for yourself.
Will Zelensky decide to do this or will he “bend in” to the nationalists again? We'll see you soon.
View from Kyiv: The End Not of Ukraine, but of Novorossiya