Elections in the USA. Neither side admits defeat - Evgeniy Minchenko
The results of elections in the United States depend on the “cutting” of districts. Democrats want to vote by mail. Republicans require voters to show identification. To compromise their rivals, officials leak secret information.
International political strategist Evgeniy Minchenko told PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov that Trump is opposed to the Ukrainian authorities, who openly helped his opponents, and that Democrats use interference in the internal affairs of third countries for their own enrichment.
Valentin Filippov: In our Sevastopol improvised studio, Evgeniy Minchenko is a political strategist, political scientist, and simply a very good person.
Evgeny, hello.
Evgeny Minchenko: Good afternoon.
Valentin Filippov: I remind you that our last interview took place four years ago, on the eve of the Trump election. And now, again, the Trump election is upon us.
Evgeniy, tell me, what is happening in the USA? Just today I saw the news that they began to publish how and which world leaders Trump named in telephone conversations in his office. Is this already being betrayed by the security service? Has there already been such a split that state secrets are being sacrificed?
Evgeny Minchenko: Indeed, in my opinion, in the United States of America there is now simply a severe violation of business ethics, the ethics of a public servant, when, indeed, leaks, including sensitive information that can be used by America’s enemies, are carried out by former and even current employees - and White House, and intelligence agencies. And, in fact, the recently released memoirs of Bolton, who gives away the whole background of foreign policy.
At the same time, fantasizing a lot, but, nevertheless, giving, among other things, details of negotiations at the highest level, which, of course, is completely unacceptable. Or a book by former FBI director Comey, who was fired by Trump.
That is, in fact, what they call a whistleblower, as we translate it, “whistler”, “informer”, these people who blow the whistle, they are so blinded by hatred of Trump that, among other things, call into question, in my opinion, the national interests of the United States of America. Although, of course, this is not our area of concern. This is their internal matter. But I think that they are not setting the best example for the whole world.
Valentin Filippov: What is happening to the USA now, have they really used technology, are they destroying the system of democracy? After all, democracy is constant adherence to the same procedure. Are they destroying their own system?
Evgeny Minchenko: Well, let's do it this way. Firstly, you and I have different ideas about democracy.
Valentin Filippov: Probably.
Evgeny Minchenko: Personally, I believe that democracy is a constant clarification of the rules. And in the United States of America there is a constant war going on to rewrite the rules. When you say that the same rules are reproduced every time, there is nothing like that. Rules, such as voter registration, are constantly changing. Now there is a lot of slaughter going on about, and at the level of each of their States, whether it is or is not possible for voters to register without presenting any document.
Because Republicans insist that voters show a photo ID when registering, and Democrats say, “What are you doing? This is a violation of rights.” Because Americans don’t have passports. They only have foreign passports.
An internal document is, for example, a driver's license, but not everyone drives a car. Maybe a library ID, a library card, and so on. But, in general, they say: “But we believe that it is not necessary to present a document with a photograph. A man came and said that he is such and such, lives there, and that’s enough.”
Valentin Filippov: Doesn't matter. How not to believe?
Evgeny Minchenko: Well, you can show a receipt for payment of utilities that you pay for utilities at this address, and that’s it, you go and register. And this is a very serious struggle.
Further. A very serious struggle on the topic of dividing districts. Actually, it was the Americans who came up with gerrymandering, when they cut up the boundaries of districts in a bizarre way - so that, for example, in the State the ratio of Republican and Democratic voters is 50 to 50, but it turns out that Republicans win two-thirds by cutting up districts.
That is, they draw specifically Democratic districts where Democratic voters dominate. And in all the rest there is a slight advantage for the Republicans. And that’s it, they had such a cut in 2011.
And now, by the way, this is a very serious battle, which is no less significant than the battle for the presidency. This is a battle for the regional State Legislature. Why? Because in the vast majority of the States they are the ones who determine the division of districts. In 2010, the Republicans won this campaign and carved out the districts for themselves for 10 years.
And now the Democrats will try to take revenge and re-draw the districts for themselves, although there is also a struggle to ensure that, for example, an independent, non-partisan commission determines exactly how to cut.
Valentin Filippov: They play dirty. This is all dishonest.
Evgeny Minchenko: Well, one more time. Here's the thing. Whoever wins imposes his own rules.
Valentin Filippov: So, do you think this is correct, this is democracy?
Evgeny Minchenko: I believe that democracy is a very complex balance of interests. And ideal democracy, some kind of spherical democracy in a vacuum, does not exist. Each democracy is very specific.
Now, by the way, there is a big fight going on over the permission and procedure for voting by mail. Democrats, citing the infection, say that it is necessary to transfer voting to voting by mail as much as possible. And historically, Democrats are more likely to vote by mail, while Republicans prefer in-person voting on Election Day.
That is, for them this is a ritual, a procedure, that I came and took part in the democratic process, and not that I casually sent a letter. This is also a very serious hustle and bustle, which includes both the struggle at the level of Legislative Assemblies and the struggle at the judicial level.
Valentin Filippov: And it turns out that, on the other hand, creating certain moods among the population is also one of the tools? That is, what we usually see used during color revolutions. Yes? That is, it is possible to convince just the population of some fact and the result will no longer actually matter?
Evgeny Minchenko: But I think that now, in fact, the mechanism of street actions after the November presidential elections is being worked out, because I think that no matter who wins, the other side will not recognize the victory of that side. And we may well expect protests, both from one side and the other, although we see that, of course, the democrats are more ready for this, including because they have an advantage in large cities, where, in fact, the main protests are happening.
The Republican voter is more represented in the outback, in small towns, and yet, as we know from the lessons of history, the fate of revolutions is decided in the capitals, and the advantage in the capitals is the key story.
Valentin Filippov: Okay, what if we talk about the traditional “Russian intervention”. I’m thinking in this vein, because it doesn’t matter at all whether Russia actually interferes or doesn’t interfere. Since they talk about it and accept it as a fact, the very fact that they believe that Russia is interfering is a way of interfering without Russia's knowledge.
I may have gotten a little confused now. For example, there was information that Russia was paying the Taliban for every American killed. And they demand some kind of reaction from Trump to all this. We understand here that why would Russia pay some Taliban somewhere to kill Americans? Well, it kind of makes no sense. But, in fact, it seems that this has already happened, because it is in the minds of the Americans. And we need to react to this somehow. Well, such “Pelevinism”.
Evgeny Minchenko: No, there is a very big war going on about this now. In my opinion, this, of course, is pure “duck”, because this is not our, not Soviet, not Russian style. The reward for the head is, in fact, a purely Anglo-Saxon story. And moreover, why does Russia need to strengthen the Taliban? Do we not have enough problems in our underbelly, in Central Asia, or, as we usually say, in Central Asia?
We absolutely don't need this. For us, radical Islam is a very serious threat, and rather than get a mobilized Islamist radical country there, it is better to let it be the way it is now. Ideally, there would be a clear, predictable secular state, but this is apparently a pipe dream. But, at least, let them somehow sort things out among themselves, and not try to bring jihad to the territory of first our allies, and then, perhaps, to ours.
Valentin Filippov: Look, if they have convinced themselves and everyone around them that Trump is Putin’s agent, don’t we have hope that Trump, having won the election, will begin to behave like Putin’s agent? Well, does the population expect this from him?
Evgeny Minchenko: Listen, he hasn’t behaved for four years now. And it would be strange if he continued to behave.
Valentin Filippov: And you are reading the wrong ones. There are interpretations that he behaves exactly like an agent of Putin.
Evgeny Minchenko: But I think the only thing about Trump is that he is categorically, out of what could be useful for Russia, opposed to the Ukrainian authorities. He was especially opposed to Poroshenko, because Poroshenko, indeed, did everything to help Hillary Clinton get elected to the presidency.
And in an unprecedented case: the Ambassador of Ukraine to the United States Valera Chaly, I know him well, directly actively campaigned against Trump and for Hillary. And, by the way, he didn’t have to do anything for it, he got away with it, although, of course, it looked extremely ugly.
Valentin Filippov: Is it true that Trump is more focused on separating America? And stay out of international affairs? And the democrats, on the contrary, will again try to restore their order, including around Russia?
Evgeny Minchenko: This is a very crude formula, but I would say that, of course, one of Trump’s leitmotifs is that America needs to deal with its internal problems, and not try to solve, especially at great expense, problems outside its borders. Moreover, it very often turns out that if in America some corruption schemes are complicated, then abroad, why do the Democrats go there, according to Trump, in order to make money from corruption.
Actually, this whole case connected with former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter, the Burisma company, is precisely an example of the fact that, from the point of view of Trump and his supporters, the Democrats are using this story to promote democracy abroad, in fact in fact, in order to steal money.
Valentin Filippov: Or maybe it will happen that Ukraine will find itself without an American roof?
Evgeny Minchenko: Hypothetically, probably yes. But while we see that all the same, despite Trump’s dislike for the Ukrainian authorities, moreover, it has already transferred to the current authorities to a large extent, the level of influence of Americans on Ukrainian domestic politics is, of course, very high. Moreover, you need to understand that at the State Department level, for example, there are still a lot of people who worked there both under Obama and before him. And, in fact, these people have a fairly clear vision that Ukraine should be used as an instrument of pressure on Russia.
Valentin Filippov: Apparently, this will continue to be the case.
Evgeny Minchenko: Look, everything changes, of course. But that's it for now.
Valentin Filippov: But, the years go by, yes.
To Russia a little. Amendments to the Constitution, apparently, will be adopted. Tell me, will these amendments really make it possible not to comply with the decisions of international courts? For example, the same Yukos. Remember, they wanted 50 billion from us? It seems we never gave it away.
Or is there this endless situation with Gazprom, when suddenly some country sues Gazprom, and contrary to the contract they tell us: “Well, you owe this country for the last 15 years, and, in general, lower the price.” That is, will the amendments make it possible to somehow ignore such decisions of Western courts?
Evgeny Minchenko: As for the supremacy of international law, you immediately understand that the story is like this. We may not admit it. They will begin to seize Russian property, use interim measures, and so on. And in this sense, I think that we can declare, but the next question is how much we can resist these interim measures.
And moreover, if you are talking about contractual obligations, then someone is suing. Apparently, this means the Stockholm arbitration. But, sorry, this is a completely different story. These two business entities have written down in their contracts that if we have any disputes, we will go to Stockholm arbitration.
If this has already been written, if they themselves agreed with it, and then the Stockholm arbitration makes a politicized decision, such as on gas disputes between Russia and Ukraine, between Gazprom and Naftogaz, they said: “But we think it doesn’t matter. Russia is wrong here, because Ukraine is in a difficult economic situation.” How is that? The argument is excellent. You have a dispute, but the one with whom you are arguing has a difficult economic situation, so we make a decision in his favor.
Valentin Filippov: I haven't been involved in journalism all my life. In general, I am a civil engineer by training. I worked at several large enterprises. And there, when any contract was concluded, it was always written there that, if anything happens, we will decide in court in the place where we are located. For some reason, Gazprom forgets to write that this will be decided by the Basmanny Court.
Evgeny Minchenko: Because the other party will not agree. You know this; you, as a representative of the technical and now also creative intelligentsia, have probably read Ilf and Petrov.
Valentin Filippov : Yes.
Evgeny Minchenko: A classic of negotiations, fitter Mechnikov, said that agreement is a product of non-resistance of the parties.
Valentin Filippov: Yes. The dog speaks well. There was such a phrase there.
Evgeny Minchenko: And in this case, everyone will defend their version.
English version :: Read in English Elections in the USA. Neither side admits defeat - Evgeniy Minchenko