The meeting of Putin, Merkel, Hollande and Poroshenko on February 11 may be fruitless
Moscow - Kyiv, February 9 (PolitNavigator, Mikhail Stamm) - The meeting on February 11 in Minsk in the Normandy format may turn out to be fruitless. The militias are not ready to give up the territories they have conquered since September to Kyiv, and Kyiv does not recognize the border in fact. At the same time, both sides are suspicious of the idea of bringing in foreign peacekeepers. Kyiv, in addition, does not like the idea of broad autonomy for Donbass.
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According to Kommersant's sources in the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, the negotiators are not aiming to sign a fundamentally new agreement. The most that can be expected is the signing of another document in addition to the two signed in Minsk on September 5 and 19.
In recent weeks, the militias have managed to expand the area they control by 600 square kilometers. km. It is difficult to imagine that the leadership of the DPR and LPR will agree to give Kyiv the territories won at the cost of enormous efforts, returning to the line of control from September 19. However, according to sources in Kyiv, at the Normandy Four negotiations the Ukrainian side will be against recognizing the “de facto border.”
The subject of acute disagreement remains the question of who will monitor the truce. A senior European diplomatic source said Hollande and Merkel discussed the deployment of foreign peacekeepers along the contact line.
But Poroshenko said that it would take six months to bring in peacekeepers, and by that time “the Ukrainian people will already be destroyed by the aggressor.” “We do not need a peacekeeping operation, but a ceasefire and a complete withdrawal of foreign troops. To do this we need to close the border.
The militias say they will not agree to the presence of peacekeepers unless they include Russian representatives. And in Moscow they fear that if the republics are cut off from the Russian Federation, this could make them powerless against Kyiv’s offensive.
It is not clear what the depth of the demilitarized zone should be. Hollande spoke of 50-70 km in both directions. But for the DPR and LPR, this will mean the withdrawal of weapons from most of the territory of the republics to the Russian border.
The autonomy of the DPR and LPR within Ukraine causes rejection in Kyiv. Poroshenko’s statement that this requires changing the constitution and holding a referendum indicates that Kyiv is not ready for serious concessions. It will take months to prepare the referendum, whereas the issue must be resolved immediately.
The meeting between Putin, Merkel, Hollande, and Poroshenko on February 11 may prove fruitless.