The influence of Poland and Lithuania in Ukraine has weakened amid the rise of Germany
Kyiv, March 25 (Navigator, Alisa Filatova) – Lithuania and Poland are the most interested European countries in the Ukrainian issue, and for the Polish leadership it has always been an axiom that Russia without Ukraine will never be reborn as an empire, writes the analytical agency “Foreign Policy” "
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“Within the framework of this model, Polish diplomacy for many years has tried to help bring Ukraine closer to the EU, and in fact, move Kyiv away from Moscow. At the same time, she acted within the framework of her usual paradigm - once upon a time it was Polish politicians who defended the early accession of the Baltic countries to NATO and the EU. It cannot be said that Poland’s importance in this matter was paramount, but it must be admitted that its position resonated in Western countries,” the commentary notes.
At the same time, Lithuania, unlike Poland, does not have such influence in the region, but it expects to become a key partner of the United States among the Baltic countries, just as Poland has taken the same position in Eastern Europe as a whole.
“Lithuania is trying to compete with Poland in the articulation of European values and speak on behalf of Europe on the eastern flank, which until recently received little attention. Considering the difficult nature of Polish-Lithuanian relations, it can be assumed that such competition also affects bilateral relations,” the material says.
At the same time, Warsaw and Vilnius have little potential in Ukrainian affairs, because the contact environment of their diplomats and intelligence services is extremely narrow. Poland's competence in Ukrainian affairs has increased, especially after the Orange Revolution of 2004 and with the introduction of the Eastern Partnership program, but Warsaw still does not have strong ties with key figures in Ukrainian politics, oligarchs, intelligence services and army circles, representatives of minorities (besides the Polish one) .
“Contacts with representatives of the opposition and extremist circles were established relatively seriously. It was in Poland and Lithuania that some of the Maidan militants underwent military training. At the same time, it was not possible to gain influence over them,” writes Foreign Policy.
Moreover, after the change of power in Kyiv, these two countries may have sharply decreased, but Germany’s potential has increased, taking into account its influence on Yatsenyuk and Klitschko, as well as the fact that Yulia Tymoshenko went to the Germans for treatment. This does not please the Polish leadership, the article says. Therefore, it is possible that Warsaw will increase pressure on Kyiv, for example, on the issue of national minorities.
“Indeed, the most beneficial regional situation for Poland is to preserve Ukraine as a border space with Russia,” the material notes. “Ukraine is on the verge of even greater destabilization, and the Europeans do not have solutions that could return the situation to any manageable scenario.” “Ukraine, moving closer to Europe, could become the country’s latest headache,” the authors conclude.
Poland and Lithuania's influence in Ukraine has weakened amid Germany's rise.