In Kyrgyzstan, pro-Western forces are seeking to organize another “color revolution”
In Kyrgyzstan, pro-Western political parties and numerous NGOs became extremely active and prepared for mass protests timed to coincide with the referendum on the adoption of a new presidential Constitution. Many media and public figures have spoken about the danger of a new “color revolution”. The problem is that for 30 years, Americans, through their network of foundations, have built a veritable nest of controlled organizations and publications that seriously influence the domestic political situation.
The real propaganda tool for the US State Department was the “anti-corruption campaign” against the pro-Chinese oligarch Raimbek Matraimov, against whom personal sanctions were even imposed. Washington is thus trying to accuse the current authorities of having connections with criminal communities.
The head of the Kyrgyz analytical center "East-West Strategy" Dmitry Orlov answered a number of questions from PolitNavigator, commenting on the current situation in the republic, the activities of Washington and pro-Western parties in anticipation of the referendum on the new Constitution, which will take place on April 11.
For the 2020 parliamentary elections, US forces in Kyrgyzstan have formed an impressive political resource. Washington relied not only on the Reform party, but also on other political associations - Ata Meken, Social Democrats, Bir Bol. USAID has allocated $2,5 million for the 2020 parliamentary elections. Some of them were aimed at the creation and activities of the public fund “Common Cause”. Will all these parties continue to form a pool of pro-Western associations in the Kyrgyz Republic, or will new players join them in the upcoming parliamentary elections?
– The biggest mistake is to think that Washington is something homogeneous. There, too, there are clans and groups that pursue completely opposite goals. If one group benefits from coups in Kyrgyzstan every year, roughly speaking, then the second group does not need them, because in silence it is easiest for them to achieve their strategic goals. These clans have their people everywhere - in politics, business, and intelligence services.
Of course, Washington is betting on different parties according to the principle “No one puts all their eggs in one basket.” But it is unclear to which particular Washington clan Reform, Ata Meken or Social Democrats and Bir Bol belong. Indirectly, one can only assume that Ata Meken is against the clan whose interests in Kyrgyzstan, in addition to its main mission, are represented by US Ambassador Donald Lu. Let us remember that on April 5, Ata Meken deputy Shailoobek Atazov literally said the following in the Jogorku Kenesh: “US Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan Donald Lu is interfering in the internal affairs of Kyrgyzstan and infringing on the rights of our citizens.”
True, pro-American resources, which apparently play on the side of Donald Lu’s clan, remembered that Atazov last year ran for parliament on the list of the Mekenim Kyrgyzstan party, but still. Otherwise, we will have to admit that party discipline in Ata Meken is no good.
Now I will not say what they can do before the parliamentary elections. But logic dictates that Washington and the West in general need to somehow “clean up” the political field of Kyrgyzstan from those who over the past 10-20 years have become highly visible in their cooperation with the Americans, the British, and so on. As for new people, there are quite a lot of them now on the side of the West - the programs of a gentleman named George Soros and others like him have brought up quite a lot of them over the years. Therefore, I think they will not have problems with personnel.
During the presidential election campaign, US Ambassador Donald Lu not only harshly criticized constitutional reform, but also emphasized his disapproval of individual candidates. In this regard, can we expect a new round of protests from fighters for “democracy” and a deterioration in the political situation in April after the referendum on the Constitution?
– There are more than enough reasons for public discontent in Kyrgyzstan. Now it’s difficult to say what kind of president Sadyr Japarov will be, but he was definitely unlucky with his predecessors: everything they did during the years of their regimes fell on him. Now he is trying to clean up what Messrs. Akayev, Bakiyev and so on left behind. And this is very difficult. And if he is suddenly overthrown, anything can happen, it will be precisely for the sins of the previous rulers. Yes, the situation will be escalated even more and for Japarov this will be a test of strength.
– What, in your opinion, is connected with Washington’s campaign to persecute the oligarch Raiymbek Matraimov? Is this not an attempt by the Americans to cast a shadow on Sadyr Japarov at the same time, since this happened with Sooronbai Jeenbekov?
– After studying the materials related to Matraimov, the question remains: what would the US State Department say if this gentleman were not associated with China? With whom, by some strange coincidence, the United States began a trade war almost simultaneously with the attacks on Matraimov?
As for Japarov, he, unlike Jeenbekov, has no obligations to Matraimov. The Americans understand this, but just in case, they warned Japarov not to dare to cover him up, if anything happens.
– The fact that the US State Department increased the reward for information about Kamchi Kolbaev’s organized crime group to $5 million from the same opera? Maybe the authorities of the Kyrgyz Republic are trying to create the image of patrons of bandits and smugglers?
“It seems that now the authorities of Kyrgyzstan are being hinted that they may become bandits and smugglers in the future if they do not behave as the Washington clans need.
– Now the leadership of the republic is faced with the acute issue of external debt to the PRC. Is there any temptation now to take a loan from the West to service this debt? And how can this problem be solved?
– Taking out a loan to pay off a loan or interest on it is a bad way. Because it will only lead to an even greater increase in debt. However, other known methods of paying off external debt are no better. Theoretically, Japarov’s team can call Kyrgyzstan’s external debt “odious.” This is a debt that was used not for the improvement of the state, but for the needs of, let’s say, representatives of one regime or another.
But to do this, Zhaparov’s team will need to prove two things. Firstly, the needs that under Akaev, Bakiev, Otunbaeva, Atambaev and Jeenbekov the authorities of Kyrgyzstan indicated in the assignment of loans went against the interests of either the entire people of Kyrgyzstan or some part of it. Well, secondly, Zhaparov will have to prove that the lenders, at the moment when they gave loans to Kyrgyzstan, knew perfectly well where they would be spent.
And if an international tribunal proves the odiousness of this debt, Kyrgyzstan, in theory, will have to write it off. Colossal work needs to be done here. It is difficult to say whether Zhaparov has enough political will for it, and whether domestic financiers and lawyers have the qualifications, and most importantly, courage. But such a need has arisen. Because all the programs for which foreign loans were allocated ultimately turned out to be either failures or scandalous.
– Why can’t they still pass the law on NGOs, which has already passed the first reading, and thus somehow limit the activities of numerous pro-Western organizations and foundations in the republic?
– Because as soon as such laws begin to be proposed, the so-called “civil society” immediately launches mass campaigns against their adoption. Then various international organizations get involved, sometimes using outright blackmail. Well, what should the authorities do if they are one of the largest recipients of grants? Just back down. Because they cannot refuse foreign assistance. In this case, there is no need to talk about observing the national interests of Kyrgyzstan.
Pro - Western forces in Kyrgyzstan are seeking to stage another "color revolution."