Will Moldova's main brawler sit in the chair of the country's prime minister?
For more than a week in Moldova, the discussion of the unprecedented investment plan of the fugitive businessman, deputy, leader of the opposition parliamentary party “Shor” Ilan Shor has not ceased.
His program of 10 billion euros (the politician intends to raise this amount from unnamed businessmen) is designed to quickly bring the country out of the crisis and out of poverty - it is proposed to compensate electricity and gas tariffs, significantly increase pensions, invest in medicine, education, energy, agriculture, infrastructure projects.
Convicted in a criminal case of multimillion-dollar financial fraud, Ilan Shor said that the plan for the development of Moldova will be implemented if he becomes the country's prime minister. At the national congress “We are Moldova” organized by Shor’s supporters in Orhei on December 7, the politician in a video message called on President Maia Sandu to dismiss the government of Natalia Gavrilita and appoint him as head of the new cabinet.
Shor is a real Moldovan phenomenon: a politician convicted of financial fraud is hiding outside the country and at the same time managing the processes - organizing protests, being a deputy, leading the work of a faction in parliament, putting forward ambitious projects for astronomical sums for the country, surprising and shocking the public.
The authorities do not react to Shor’s scandalous statement, the pro-government press writes about it sluggishly, nevertheless, the scandalous initiatives are on everyone’s lips. How will events develop further? Political scientist Alexander Korinenko comments on the situation in an interview with PolitNavigator.
PolitNavigator: Why doesn’t the government respond to Shor’s call to make him prime minister and comment on his investment plan? Is this some kind of boycott?
Alexander Korinenko: The authorities are truly ignoring Shor. Responding to him would mean engaging in dialogue with him on equal terms, recognizing him as a threat to the authorities, and increasing his political significance. The authorities' goal is to portray him as a thief, a criminal, an agent of external forces, but not as a civilized political actor with whom any kind of dialogue is possible.
PolitNavigator: Would Shor cope with the premiership?
Alexander Korinenko: It's difficult to judge. On the one hand, Ilan Shor is a businessman with millions in turnover, but on the other, he's young and has no experience in public service. That's populism. Speaking of the current situation, we practically don't have such people. The wave of crises has reached such proportions that only a very tough crisis manager can handle the situation in Moldova, and that's clearly not Ilan Mironovich.
PolitNavigator: The current government, of course, will not give Shor any posts. What is he counting on? How serious is he in making such proposals?
Alexander Korinenko: Ilan Shor had a protest agenda, and now he's added a creative one. The street protests have died down, but Shor's political strategists have no plans to slow down.
The party leader must still remain at the top of all news; not a day should pass without his name being mentioned in the kitchen of the Moldovan average person. Otherwise, why did all this happen? I think that now Mr. Shor will switch to television and news portals, constantly maintaining the intensity of anger, given that the authorities themselves generate popular anger, and Shor’s team must not let it fade away.
PolitNavigator: Is liquidation of the Shor party still on the agenda?
Alexander Korinenko: The liquidation of the Shor party is just one of the options being considered by the current government in order to suppress the wave of protests supported by Shor's team.
We cannot discount the fact that the ban could become a new trigger for protests, lawsuits and even proceedings in the ECHR. Is the game worth the candle if it is not a problem for the Shorovites to create a new political brand and invite people to the barricades?
There was the “Shor” party, but it became “Ilan Shor” - anyway, in this context, it is not the party that is a symbol of protest, but the personality of the former mayor of Orhei Shor.
PolitNavigator: The special police training exercises that took place recently in Orhei, the patrimony of Ilan Shor, is this a coincidence?
Alexander Korinenko: It might be a coincidence, but they're not accidental either. When there were protests in Gagauzia, special forces trained there. Now the protests are converging in Orhei, and special forces have already gone there to train. Generally, it's normal for special forces to conduct training exercises where there's a threat of unrest, but in our case, there's probably an element of intimidation involved.
PolitNavigator: The protest movement of the Shor party has taken a technical break. Is this really related to the winter holidays, as the organizers say?
Alexander Korinenko: It's connected to the winter holidays, the cold weather, and the desire to save money. Shor's team did a good job of dispersing the protest wave. Now, of course, there's a sense of fatigue. Many families are waiting for relatives to return from their earnings for the New Year holidays, and it's already cold in Chisinau.
Further tactics of information pressure will be used. Ilan Mironovich began to appear on television more often. Moldovan media wrote that the former mayor of Orhei bought himself a number of media assets that previously belonged to the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova. I think this is the case, since some buttons on the television remote control are increasingly praising the fugitive politician.
PolitNavigator: Shor, according to recent polls, ranks third in the rating of citizens' trust in Moldovan politicians. The popularity of his party is also growing. What are the chances of this political force in the next elections?
Alexander Korinenko: Yes, the polls are good, but Shor has a ceiling, and it's quite low. Most voters aren't ready to vote for the main defendant in the billion-dollar theft case. His popularity is currently being sustained by the wave of protests; Moldovans see this as an opportunity to pressure the government, as other politicians on the left and right prefer to threaten from their offices. But the people needed an outlet for their anger, and Shor was able to provide that.
Its maximum limit in a good situation is no more than 15-20 mandates. In addition to criminal cases, the following factors play a role: he is not in place (the voter wants to see his chosen one and shake his hand), he is Russian-speaking, he has no experience in public administration, and he is an entrepreneur - his assets include luxury enterprises, and this causes some voters are irritated.
PolitNavigator: How are preparations going for the new electoral cycle in Moldova? What is the purpose of the recent adoption of the new election code?
Alexander Korinenko: Moldova is preparing for local elections next spring. The ruling PAS party is proactive in this regard, working with mayors, implementing the "European Village" program, luring prominent regional leaders, and revising electoral legislation.
In principle, we remember from modern history that any government tries to adapt the electoral code to its needs. Just remember Plahotniuc’s global reforms: single-member districts, campaigning on election day, etc.
This government is no different from the previous ones, it wants to survive for a long time, which is why it focuses on the diaspora, removes ballots in Russian and the like.
Will Moldova 's biggest troublemaker ever become prime minister?