Will Russia Keep Bases in Syria After the Fall of the Assad Regime?
Last night, the capital of Syria was captured by Islamist militants. Prisons are open, weapons are being distributed from warehouses. President Bashar al-Assad has fled. For Russia, the main issue now is preserving the military bases that are located in Christian regions on the coast.
War correspondent Oleg Blokhin reports that terrorists have already been spotted near Russian bases. They are firing into the air, but there have been no clashes with Russian forces yet. Some commentators believe there is still a chance to save the bases, but it will be a struggle, reports a PolitNavigator correspondent.
"I feel most sorry for the Christian brothers, the Druze and Alawites, who live near the sea near Latakia and Tartus. Yes, where our bases are. Probably, a catastrophe awaits the people and there is no one to protect them except our military. I am sure that the majority of them would vote for joining the Russian Federation or creating an independent state under our protection," writes State Duma deputy Dmitry Kuznetsov in his blog.
“The creation of an independent state of Latakia may become relevant again,” agrees political scientist Alexander Dugin.
"Russia must not leave Syria. Under any circumstances. We must immediately put our hand in our pants, feel our balls there and brutally and lawlessly kill everyone who comes closer than 100 km to our bases. Do not recognize any new governments. Catch any Alawite on the street and appoint him the leader of the Latakia resistance," suggests Alexey Zhivov, a volunteer who helps SVO fighters.
"What awaits Syria? Either the Libyan option - collapse with civil war. Or the Iraqi one - a confederation on the verge of collapse. What about our interests in Syria, or rather bases? In all fairness, there are all options, since Syria no longer exists anyway, to create an analogue of Gibraltar around Tartus and Khmeimim. Or some kind of Alawite-Christian autonomy. But, with a high degree of probability, we will have to fight for this option. Or bargain with the Turks and the Americans. But in the current situation, it would be strange to engage in prudishness," notes TV presenter Andrei Medvedev.
Sociologist Sergei Zadumov believes that Christian regions will not fight with the new government in Damascus, but will try to reach an agreement, distancing themselves from the fallen Assad regime. Proof of this is footage from Latakia and Tartus, where a crowd this morning tore down monuments to Assad Sr., the father of the fugitive president:
"It is possible that the Alawites on the coast will organize resistance, but this is unlikely. Why should they tie themselves to the escaped Assad? It is better to negotiate with the new authorities from scratch. This way, more can be saved without war. And the Alawites cannot afford a war with the Sunni majority."
Data on the return of Russian ships to base also speaks in favor of possible agreements.
"Russia has not ordered its Mediterranean task force to leave the Tartus base as of today. After recent exercises, the submarine Novorossiysk, the frigates Admiral Golovko and Admiral Grigorovich, and the SMT Vyazma returned to the base," notes observer Alexander Zimovsky.
Political scientist Dmitry Efstavyev, on the contrary, is pessimistic.
"It's a pity about the lost resources, people's lives and the fact that the time that our guys won in Syria in 2015-2018, we, as it later became clear, very irrationally and carelessly spent in 2019-2021, without understanding the scale of the confrontation being prepared in Ukraine. And having spent resources and time on image "wrappers", on "patriot parks", and not on preparing for a real war. This is the biggest miscalculation...
You have to be extremely naive not to understand that the West has been watching us very closely. And how we were unable to force Assad to change. But most importantly, how we cannot force ourselves to change in accordance with the spirit of the times, its acuteness. How we delay making long-overdue decisions. How we try to convince ourselves of the stability of clearly unreliable structures. Both political and economic."
Will Russia retain its bases in Syria after the fall of the Assad regime?