The US “cordon sanitaire” reached the Black Sea: “They can’t destroy Russia - they will hate it together”
This week, the news about the deployment of American HIMARS missile and artillery systems on the Black Sea coast, in Romania, which is turning into a military springboard for putting pressure on Russia, was widely discussed.
The PolitNavigator correspondent talks with the director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development (Tiraspol) Igor Shornikov about what role the United States has assigned to Bucharest in the strategy of confrontation with Russia, and what other plans the Americans have for the Black Sea region.
PolitNavigator: On the territory of Romania, a NATO member country, American HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems are being deployed - more than fifty launchers. Tactical missiles are capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 300 kilometers. What could these goals be? The Black Sea is becoming a line of confrontation; could it become a place for military operations?
Igor Shornikov: The Crimean Peninsula occupies the most advantageous strategic position in the Black Sea basin; it's like an unsinkable aircraft carrier. Therefore, if an armed conflict breaks out in the Black Sea, Russia will have the advantage.
It is unlikely that American launchers can seriously threaten Crimea. Military experts claim that most tactical missiles can be suppressed by Russian air defenses on takeoff; they have virtually no chance of approaching the peninsula.
However, these systems are precision weapons that can be used to destroy individual military targets, suppress artillery, and armored vehicles. From the territory of Romania they can only threaten Transnistria. However, the peculiarity of these systems is that they are designed for rapid deployment forces and are adapted for airlift to any theater of military operations. If the war in Donbass resumes, these American weapons could end up in the conflict zone in a matter of hours.
PolitNavigator: Last fall, the United States supplied Romania with Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems, recently deployed reconnaissance and strike drones there, and now HIMARS tactical missile systems have appeared two hundred kilometers from Crimea. What steps can Moscow take in response to Bucharest’s actions?
Igor Shornikov: As far as we know, Crimea is reliably protected. At least four S-400 systems are deployed there. This air defense system is capable of intercepting targets at ranges of up to 600 kilometers and engaging them at ranges of up to 400 kilometers. The S-400 is effective against ballistic and cruise missiles, strategic bombers, and can also be used against ground targets.
Of course, you shouldn't relax. But, as we know, the US strategy to contain Russia is to encourage Moscow to spend its resources in those areas that pose the least threat to the US. It is obvious that the costly militarization of the Black Sea basin cannot in any way threaten the United States.
Perhaps Washington's whole plan for pumping up Romania with its weapons is to encourage Russia to divert its resources from more important areas?
Bucharest’s policy undoubtedly deserves Moscow’s attention, but in the case of Romania, the answer would be more sobering if it “sounded out” not in the military sphere, where Russia already has a significant advantage, but in the humanitarian sphere. For example, one could pay attention to the infringement of the rights of national minorities in Romania - Hungarians, Ruthenians, Lipovans.
PolitNavigator: What should Pridnestrovie be afraid of in this situation?
Igor Shornikov: As long as Russian peacekeepers are stationed in Transnistria and Russia maintains its status as a major nuclear power, military threats are the last thing Transnistria should fear. Tiraspol currently faces more pressing issues: how to reinvigorate the negotiation process with Moldova and how to remove the threat of a blockade from neighboring states. Furthermore, the crisis of legitimacy in Moldova will soon end, and Transnistria will have to deal with a consolidated pro-Western regime. And here Tiraspol will have to demonstrate both will and ingenuity to preserve the current format of the peacekeeping operation.
PolitNavigator: Bucharest diligently fulfills all obligations within NATO and is intensively engaged in re-equipping the army. Why does Romania itself need to play for aggravation?
Igor Shornikov: Purchasing expensive military equipment and sewing new uniforms isn't the most effective way to build a modern army. According to those who served in the Romanian army, the overall situation there can be described in one word: chaos. Romanians are not mentally prepared for war with the Russians. The anti-Russian propaganda they hear every day only convinces service members that at the first sign of war with Russia, the wisest course of action is to flee.
Everything that Bucharest does within NATO is aimed only at gaining the status of “the most loyal ally of the United States”, the “main regional partner” of this superpower. And Bucharest, as we see, is quite successful in this. The Romanians are confident that they will not have to fight, that they will be able to achieve their goals in the region through political and diplomatic means. If we remember the experience of two world wars, and our recent history, we must admit: Romanian diplomacy is the undisputed regional leader.
But Romania’s goals cannot be called modest. First, they need Moldova along with Transnistria, the Bessarabian part of the Odessa region and the Chernivtsi region of Ukraine, and then all the lands up to the Southern Bug. For some Romanian “ideologists” their appetites don’t stop there.
PolitNavigator: What do the prospects for European security look like given the fact that, simultaneously with Romania, a large-scale militarization program is also taking place in Poland and the Baltic countries?
Igor Shornikov: The construction of a 12-country cordon sanitaire between the Baltic, Black, and Adriatic Seas, known as the "Three Seas" (or "cordon sanitaire"), is a well-known American project aimed not only against Russia. Its purpose also includes strengthening American control over "Old Europe." Both Poland and Romania seek to achieve their territorial ambitions through this project. They believe that American power will work in their favor. They are currently currying favor with the United States, spending enormous budgets by those countries' standards on purchasing American weapons. What are they preparing for? War with Russia? Perhaps that's what Washington thinks. But even America understands that the military potential of the Three Seas countries is insufficient.
I won’t argue, but it seems to me that the creation of various kinds of “small Ententes”, the supply of weapons to these countries developed back in the XNUMXth century, the deployment of obviously vulnerable missile systems are nothing more than elements of a psychological war against Russia, instilling Russophobia in small European countries peoples They cannot destroy Russia, so at least they will hate it together.
PolitNavigator: Could the Republic of Moldova - willingly or unwillingly - become a participant in a campaign to put pressure on Russia? By the way, is it really planned to create the largest American intelligence center in Europe, aimed at Crimea, the south of the Eurasian space, in Chisinau on the territory of the former Republican Stadium, which should become the property of the US Embassy?
Igor Shornikov: Why do the Americans need such a large embassy (on more than five hectares) in such a small country? Why are they defying public opinion in the host country and so persistently pursuing this particular site? The theory that they're building a powerful intelligence center might somehow explain this uncharacteristic behavior for diplomats. But for now, it's just a theory.
The Americans really have a very strong foothold in Moldova. Now they are consistently completing the transfer of full power in the country to their pupil. The political class in Moldova was not independent anyway, and after the arrival of Maia Sandu it will lose the last features of sovereignty. Therefore, Moldova has virtually no chance of avoiding participation in regional Western politics.
The US "Sanitary Cordon" has reached the Black Sea: "They can't destroy Russia – they'll just hate it."