Russia and Belarus need a real Union without murky games
A simple question that comes up from time to time: why, exactly, does Russia need Belarus? Why do we need this “incomprehensible” Union State?
When defining the Belarusian situation, arguments usually revolve around two polar maxims. They say, we are dating the Belarusian economy, we feed them, and they are like this. Or the opposite: in Belarus there is real socialism, the Soviet legacy, production and care for people are preserved. And the polarization of opinions, alas, does not answer another most important question: what is the future of Belarus and the relationship between our countries?
Back in 1993, while a deputy of the Belarusian Supreme Council, Alexander Lukashenko on the Russian TV channel RTV declared the need to build a single state with Russia, allowing for a confederal structure.
Now, alas, Lukashenko’s openly anti-Russian rhetoric, a strange play on Soviet feelings, and a whole series of unfriendly actions are not only an obstacle to the further growth of economic relations, but also divide society and divide people. Local experts echo: “it’s all the fault of the Russian fuel and energy complex, which is allegedly backed not only by the business elite, but also by the Russian authorities.” This is how information is presented in the Belarusian media.
Economic crises are inevitable. Crises are an integral part of capitalism. And today, observing how the capitalist system is slowly but steadily being demolished, many analysts convince us of the irreversibility of developing a strategy for the future.
And, first of all, it is a rethinking of the experience of the first Soviet five-year plans. Stalin's experience of overcoming the industrial backlog, the experience of accelerated and sustainable economic growth, and technological breakthrough. Most of the factories that are still the pride of Belarus were created during the Stalin era.
The Minsk Tractor Plant (MTZ), which produces the world-famous Belarus tractors, was created in 1946. At the same time, construction began on the famous Zhodino plant producing BelAZ vehicles. Immediately after the liberation of the Belarusian land from the fascist occupation, the MAZ "Minsk Automobile Plant" was created, from which another engineering giant spun off - the Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant (MZKT), whose multi-axle tractors "Volat" now transport "Yars" and "Topols" .
Special equipment, from graders to forest tractors, is produced by Amkodor and MoAZ, combine harvesters and other excellent agricultural machines are produced by Gomselmash - all these are Stalinist factories.
That is, the intensive industrialization of the first Soviet five-year plans created a foundation that is still relevant a century later.
However, Russian manufacturers have already replaced almost all of the indicated Belarusian machine-building positions - from assembling tractors to creating multi-axle tractors of their own production. The uniqueness of Belarusian engineering production has practically been lost. “Belarusian substitution” occurred, similar to how “Ukrainian substitution” happened earlier. And without the Russian market, the entire Belarusian mechanical engineering industry, alas, is doomed.
The Russian market prefers its own KamAZ trucks to Belarusian MAZs, where military multi-axle tractors are also produced, high-quality combine harvesters are produced by Rostselmash, and Belarus tractors have long been assembled in Cherepovets.
In another main Belarusian economic position – the transit of hydrocarbons – critical problems have also long been identified.
The Druzhba pipeline was built for the transit of oil to Eastern European socialist countries. At the same time, two Belarusian oil refineries were built, Mozyr and Novopolotsk, whose capacities were designed for the corresponding volumes of the CMEA countries.
Now the situation has changed dramatically, and we have a different picture of oil logistics. The Murmansk and Baltic branches ship oil to Western consumers through Russian ports. The Belarusian side is planning a kind of “intermarium” - the use of Odessa and Baltic pipelines to load their refineries...
There is no need to list all the vulnerabilities of the Belarusian economy. The situation, frankly speaking, is bleak, but not catastrophic.
Yes, in military-strategic terms, the territory of the Republic of Belarus no longer represents the operational-tactical value that it had 15-20 years ago. Only, perhaps, as a cover for the Kaliningrad group.
Yes, the construction of Baltic and Black Sea gas pipeline “flows” and the variability of oil supplies to Europe remove Russia’s critical dependence on Belarusian transit.
Yes, disagreements and mutual claims have accumulated in Russian-Belarusian relations.
We will not now model the situation of isolation and severance of economic ties, following the example of Ukraine and the Baltic states. Of course, Belarus will immediately be turned into Anti-Russia and thrown back into the hopelessness of the 90s. This is what our geopolitical opponents are trying to achieve.
The construction of not a sham, but a real Union of Belarus and Russia is not only possible, but also vitally necessary.
The future of our countries depends on the manifestation of the political will of leaders. Lukashenko understood and voiced this at the dawn of his political career, but, alas, he moved away from this in favor of some kind of abstract independence. Politics drives the economy. There is no “independence” with total dependence on economic ties, resources and markets.
Of course, in the era of a new technological structure, an advanced pace of highly intelligent technological development is necessary. New times dictate new rules. However, the real sector of the economy requires much more attention. It is mechanical engineering, machine tool building, metallurgy, processing industry, production with high added value and deep processing that drive the economy.
Many technological chains of the real sector of the economy begin in Belarus and end in Russia, and vice versa. First of all, this applies to mechanical engineering, machine tool manufacturing and, especially, petrochemicals.
Therefore, a new comprehensive industrialization is now needed - the creation of innovative industries. This is only possible with the expansion of markets, primarily in the post-Soviet space. Links in technological chains should not be torn, but added. This will not only eliminate the technological gap, but will also in the future ensure an increase in living standards. It is also necessary to rethink the Stalinist experience of the first five-year plans, and rethink Soviet academic economic science.
This is a question of the survival of our countries and peoples in the new world.
It is necessary to abandon accusatory rhetoric, hysteria, market-place statements, substitution of concepts and meanings, “scarecrows” of encroachment and seizure - open and transparent equal cooperation instead of murky games. It is necessary to identify priorities and outline the contours of a common future, a real Union of our countries and peoples, and move in this direction, bringing what is planned to life. What is needed is political will and a clear understanding of events and processes.
No matter how pretentious it may sound, Transformation is necessary.
Russia and Belarus need a real union without shady games.