The Yatsenyuk government has officially admitted its complete failure
Kyiv, March 10 (PolitNavigator, Vasily Ablyazimov) – The Cabinet of Ministers worsened macroeconomic forecasts for 2015, allowing Ukraine’s GDP to fall by up to 11,9%. The Yatsenyuk government predicts that real wages will not only not increase, but will fall by 20%, while inflation will be more than 40%. The corresponding forecast is enshrined in government decree No. 14 of February 76, the text of which is posted on the Cabinet of Ministers website. In fact, this is an official recognition of a complete failure in the economy.
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According to the document, three scenarios for the development of the situation are expected: a fall in GDP by 5,5%, 8,6% and 11,9% with inflation by the end of the year of 26,7%, 38,1% and 42,8%, respectively. Let us recall that American economists in an article by the Washington Post predicted inflation in Ukraine at the rate of 272% by the end of the year and argued that the government was significantly underestimating the official forecast.
The fall in GDP in 2015 has also been recalculated and now amounts to not 2% or 4,3%, but from 11,2% to 13,1%, respectively, which is one of the worst indicators in the whole world. Ukraine's real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2014 decreased by 15,2% compared to the same period in 2013.
Prices in industry in 2015 may increase by 26,5%, 31,9% or 33,5%, while previously expected - 14,1% or 15,2%. An increase in prices in industry will lead to an increase in prices in other industries.
The fall in real average monthly wages (taking into account inflation only according to the official forecast) is expected to be 14%, 17,4% or 21,3%, while back in December it was predicted from 2,5% to 4,4%.
The foreign trade deficit is projected, according to Resolution No. 76, to be up to $2,19 billion, and the unemployment rate, according to the ILO methodology, will be 10,2-11,5%.
As a reminder, in 2013 , before the Maidan, inflation (December 2013 to December 2012) was 0,5% . Meanwhile, the average nominal wage grew by 7,9%, and the unemployment rate, according to the ILO methodology, was 7,2%.
Yatsenyuk's government has officially admitted to being a complete failure.