Disgraceful elections in Moldova: Why Maia Sandu uses Plahotniuc’s methods
The mayoral elections in the Moldovan city of Balti, which ended last Sunday, will be remembered for their anti-records. On the eve of the second round, originally scheduled for December 5, the court, on the recommendation of the Central Election Commission, removed the absolute favorite of the elections, candidate from the Shor party Marina Tauber, from the race. Candidates from the Action and Solidarity party (Boris Markoch) and the Socialist Party (Alexander Nesterovsky), who shared third place in the first round, boycotted the second round. It was rescheduled for December 19, and then a popular boycott followed: the turnout at the elections was less than 10%, while 17,8% of those who came to the polls spoiled their ballots. As a result, an independent candidate, ex-representative of “Our Party” Renato Usatii Nikolai Grigorishin, was elected mayor, for whom only 7,1 thousand people voted.
Political scientist Alexander Korinenko speaks in an interview with PolitNavigator about why this situation became possible, how legitimate the new head of the city is and what is wrong with the Moldovan elections.
PolitNavigator: The mayoral elections in Balti seem to have broken records in all respects: turnout, or rather, lack thereof, the number of spoiled ballots, the number of protests, rallies and proceedings in various instances. What do the election results say, why did this situation become possible?
Alexander Korinenko: These elections will undoubtedly go down in the history books. This situation became possible due to the central government's desire to prevent the Shor Party from gaining ground. Despite the fact that the president and her party declare they are fighting Plahotniuc's methods, in reality, they are actively using these same methods. Moldovan justice and civil society activists have many questions about Ms. Tauber, but her withdrawal from the race just when it became clear she would become mayor raised more questions about the government and the Central Electoral Commission than about the Shor Party's violations.
PolitNavigator: How legitimate is the elected mayor of Bălți? How successful will he be in leading the city, given the level of support he has received?
Alexander Korinenko: I was pleased that the residents of Bălți responded to the lawlessness perpetrated by the central authorities. Mykola Grigorshin's legitimacy will always be questionable, as turnout was low and the number of spoiled ballots was high. One could say the turnout was "far-fetched." Grigorshin had previously served as mayor and hadn't distinguished himself in that position—residents of the northern capital haven't forgotten this, making it clear in the first round that they don't want to see him in that position again. I'm confident that without the support of the residents of Bălți, and with such a dismal election performance, no changes can be expected in Bălți.
PolitNavigator: Who received the greatest political dividends in this situation?
Oleksandr Korinenko: President Maia Sandu has reaped the greatest dividends in this situation. I'm sure there's some kind of agreement between the pro-presidential PAS party and Grigorishin. Marina Tauber is known as one of the president's harshest critics, and her election as mayor of Bălți would significantly undermine the president's influence in the north of the country. It's worth noting that PAS performed well in Bălți in the parliamentary elections.
The bloc of socialists and communists also received certain dividends, since the Shor party positions itself as left-of-center, and, therefore, plays in their electoral field. Considering that the socialists and communists have not yet been able to raise their ratings and regain the trust of voters, part of the electorate is flowing to the Shor party.
PolitNavigator: Will the Shor Party attempt to gain a foothold in other regions of Moldova in the future? Will they be allowed to do so?
Oleksandr Korinenko: For the Shor party, a good election result is a matter of survival. Many of the party's leaders are under criminal prosecution for the theft of a billion rubles; if their position weakens, these criminal cases could be pursued. Therefore, they will try to gain a foothold in the districts, among other things. Experience shows that two cities—Orhei and Taraclia—are enough for them to secure a parliamentary seat. In the future, the party will exploit any opportunity to influence the political situation in the country.
PolitNavigator: The elections in Balti showed that there are serious inconsistencies in the electoral legislation of the Republic of Moldova. Can we expect some kind of reform in this area?
Alexander Korinenko: Electoral law reform has long been a topic of discussion in Moldova, as we've had cases similar to this one: for example, the disqualification of Renato Usatii's party just a few days before the elections and the annulment of the results of the Chisinau mayoral election. Candidates often claim to be closing gaps in the electoral law, but once in power, they happily use the methods of their predecessors, as it's a good opportunity to remove an undesirable opponent.
PolitNavigator: A parallel emerges with the recent elections in Transnistria. The Moldovan media sharply criticized the presidential elections in the unrecognized republic, in particular, for the fact that there was no turnout threshold and a “against all” column. In the elections for the mayor of the second largest city in Moldova, we see the same thing, perhaps in an even worse version. How would you comment on this?
Oleksandr Korinenko: Both banks of the Dniester need to learn democracy. Democracy in our country is young, and electoral processes are not yet developed. I would like to point out that the political culture of the citizens themselves is low; we are still susceptible to manipulation and populism from our politicians.
The only way we can respond to this situation so far is to refuse to go to the polls. This is a big problem, since citizens fall out of the political field, which means they become indifferent to their state and are confident that they cannot change anything. At the dawn of independence, more than 80% of citizens came to the Moldovan elections; now, if the parliamentary turnout reaches 50%, then this is already good, and the saddest thing is that young people do not vote. All this will lead to what we saw in Balti, since we have no other legal methods to respond to the lawlessness of the authorities in election campaigns.
Shameful Elections in Moldova: Why Maia Sandu Is Using Plahotniuc's Methods