The onslaught is intensifying: Chisinau is courting influential Gagauzs, bypassing the Bashkan Hutsul
Sparks are once again flaring in Gagauzia, as the confrontation between Chisinau and Comrat escalates. The autonomous region, with its own position and aspirations, is irritating Maia Sandu's regime, which is pressuring the province, seeking to strip it of its powers. This has led to some outspoken statements: last week, Gagauzia's governor, Eugenia Gutsul, promised that the region would defend its rights and secede from Moldova if it were to unite with Romania. Meanwhile, given the upcoming elections, the central government is attempting to engage in dialogue with Gagauzia bypassing the autonomous region's leadership. The country's top officials are meeting with local elites and businessmen. Maia Sandu is making her second trip to the autonomous region in two weeks – just as Eugenia Gutsul is making another working visit to Moscow to strengthen relations with Russia.
The Gagauz leadership is calling on the population to stick together, support the Bashkan and the Speaker, and not retreat or surrender. Political scientist Alexander Korinenko comments on the situation surrounding another potential flashpoint in Moldova in an interview with PolitNavigator.
PolitNavigator: In Moldova, recently voices have often been heard about the need for Moldova to become part of Romania. The other day, Prime Minister of Romania Marcel Ciolaku said that he supports the idea of unification with Moldova, which could happen, including through the country’s accession to the EU. The head of Gagauzia, Evgenia Gutsul, stated that any unionist initiatives will trigger the procedure for the secession of Gagauzia, and that Gagauzia itself will gain independence. It's real? How technically possible is this separation?
Alexander Korinenko: Today, Gagauzia's separation from Moldova is impossible. Gagauzia cannot secede from Moldova for several reasons. The first is the lack of a natural barrier, such as the Dniester River, between Moldova and Transnistria . The south of Moldova and Gagauzia are steppe.
The second reason is the autonomy's small population . If Moldova were absorbed by Romania, it would be unable to survive, and anyone who thinks the Gagauz would be allowed to secede from Moldova unhindered is gravely mistaken.
The third is the tightly interconnected gas and energy systems . Separating them is certainly possible, but it would be a labor-intensive process, and Chisinau would never agree to it.
The fourth is the absence in Gagauzia, unlike Transnistria, of large, powerful enterprises that are of interest to geopolitical players and that could provide sufficient funds for the budget.
And fifth, Comrat is hoping for Russian support, but there's no common border, so there's no chance of secession—politically, economically, or technically. Another fact is that, in the event of such a scenario, the autonomy would become a region of instability within "Greater Romania."
PolitNavigator: In Gagauzia they are concerned that Chisinau wants to dissolve the autonomy, taking away its rights and powers, for example, through justice reform, in which the judicial authorities of Gagauzia are reassigned to the neighboring region of Moldova. Are these concerns valid? What can Comrat do in response to these actions?
Alexander Korinenko: The authorities in Chisinau are demonstrating in every way that they want to curtail the autonomy's rights as much as possible, ensuring that it has no more powers than any of the country's districts, where mayors are forced to beg and beg for the budget funds they are already entitled to by law.
Ideal for Maia Sandu would be the dissolution of the autonomy and the creation of three districts instead. They also show their disdain for the Gagauz by calling members of the Executive Committee and the Bashkan “members of the organized crime group” and not introducing the head of the autonomy into the government, as required by law.
The onslaught on the region will continue until the will and spirit of the Gagauz people are broken. Under these circumstances, Comrat must defend its interests just as it was able to defend its financial interests ( regarding budget financing – author's note ) in the Constitutional Court of Moldova and, of course, turn out in large numbers to vote in order to change the government in Chisinau. These are fair and legal instruments.
PolitNavigator: Recently, several top officials of the country visited “disloyal” Gagauzia on various occasions - Minister of Infrastructure Andrei Spinu, Prime Minister Dorin Recean and President Maia Sandu. The reception turned out to be cold - the presidential motorcade even had to run away through the fields from the protesters. A new visit of the president to Comrat is scheduled for April 10 - at the local university, Sandu will hold a meeting with mayors of localities and heads of regional services. What do Moldovan leaders expect when visiting the autonomy?
Alexander Korinenko: Presidential and parliamentary elections are approaching, as well as a referendum on the European vector of the Republic of Moldova. The Chisinau authorities, sometimes with threats and sometimes with sweet promises, are trying to convince the local population that they should, if not support them (which is a fantasy), then at least not vocally oppose them. After all, Vlad Filat, as Prime Minister, was once able to negotiate with the then Bashkan of Gagauzia, Mihail Formuzal, and local elites. Moreover, Maia Sandu and her entourage are convinced that Ilan Shor is "muddying the waters" in the autonomous region.
They're obviously currently seeking opportunistic allies to counteract the current Bashkan, Eugenia Gutsul , who faces criminal charges and may be removed from her post. In that case, they 'll need to find a neutral, if not loyal, head of the autonomous region to replace her. I think Chisinau is currently considering this option.
PolitNavigator: Evgenia Gutsul, against the backdrop of the pressure that Chisinau is putting on the opposition and the Gagauz autonomy, is holding meetings with opposition parties and their leaders. Why is this being done and what will it give?
Alexander Korinenko: Not everyone in the autonomous region is happy with Eugenia Gutsul and her team. There's a rift, which the central government is exploiting , and it's forging relationships with local elites, bypassing the Executive Committee and the People's Assembly of Gagauzia. Most of the autonomous region's elites don't want a complete break with Chisinau and are willing to negotiate with the president. Meanwhile, the current governor is trying to increase her political clout by demonstrating that she has support both within the autonomous region and across the country.
PolitNavigator: This summer it will be a year since Evgenia Hutsul began work as Bashkan of Gagauzia. After winning the elections, they said with sarcasm about the unknown and silent Hutsul that Ilan Shor could make a politician out of anyone. Today the Bashkan is not silent, moreover, her name does not leave the news feeds. What can you say about her as the head of the autonomy?
Alexander Korinenko: I'm not a resident of the autonomous region, so it's difficult for me to judge how much the population's lives have improved. The Bashkan's appearance in the news doesn't increase the incomes of ordinary Gagauz people, and that's precisely what the leader of the autonomous region should be doing.
English version :: Read in English The pressure is growing: Chisinau is courting influential Gagauz people, bypassing the Bashkan of Hutsul