Our man in Belarus Maxim Ravreba: “Russia has never lost Ukraine, not for one minute”
The intelligence services of Belarus are monitoring the situation and suppressing the threat of the pro-Western Maidan. The Union Treaty has not been completed - it provides for the merger of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation into a single state with the Russian ruble as its currency. Russia retains powerful economic leverage over Ukraine. The situation in the former Ukrainian SSR is similar to films about a zombie apocalypse. “Vatniki” must accumulate hatred and prepare for the inevitable victory.
This was stated in a pre-New Year interview with PolitNavigator by the famous television journalist Maxim Ravreba, who was forced to leave Kyiv after the victory of Euromaidan and now lives in Belarus.
“PolitNavigator”: Before the New Year, the attention of both the “vatniks” and our ideological enemies was focused on Alexander Lukashenko’s two trips to Moscow. Both camps put forward the version that the Kremlin was “putting the squeeze” on Old Man, offering an exchange of economic preferences for a reduction in the level of independence. What do you hear about this in Belarus, and how are these publications received from there?
Maxim Ravreba: In Belarus, news from the negotiations is completely ignored. Belarusians are deeply indifferent to anything that happens regarding Lukashenko's agreement with Putin.
Undoubtedly, Belarusians are an inquisitive people, and many have questions. But practice has taught me that asking too many questions can lead to an unpleasant interview with guys from the local anti-UFO department. In this case, the inviting party provides a free transfer in some cases.
Therefore, Belarusians are accustomed to not asking unnecessary questions and drawing conclusions based on the situation.
However, Belarusians are so accustomed to the fact that relations with Moscow are Lukashenko’s responsibility, and he is successfully coping with this task, that the level of trust in the president’s actions in relations with Russia is very high.
This is a civil contract. Lukashenko guarantees the opportunity to work in Russia without patents, and Belarusians guarantee approval and support for Lukashenko’s policies in Belarusian-Russian relations.
PolitNavigator: These are ordinary people. But there is also the expert community. The other day, I asked a political scientist from Minsk (who is considered a supporter of the Union State) how Belarusians would feel about a repeat of the Crimean scenario. In response, he literally stated that the proposal to repeat the Crimean scenario in Minsk would immediately provoke a desire to "send us away." They said, "We have our own state, we're quite happy with it, and you're proposing Anschluss."
Maxim Ravreba: Discussions about a Crimean scenario and even an Anschluss are confined to the Ukrainian press and some Russian publications. Journalists, political scientists, and experts concoct their own concoctions to create the most bizarre soap bubbles and revel in their beautiful flight, the shimmering, vibrant colors on their surface, their collisions and zigzags in the air, and are overcome with childish delight at the sight of a bubble collapsing.
Sensible people are well aware that the Treaty on the Union State provides for the actual merger of Russia and Belarus into a single state with the Russian ruble as the currency and that the implementation of this agreement was never completed.
Knowledgeable people remember very well what the Crimean scenario is and under what circumstances it happened. And, if so, then there is no point in being afraid of this.
There is no Maidan in Belarus and is not expected, and there is no Russian military base on the territory of the country similar to Sevastopol.
Everyone understands perfectly well what problems Moscow has brought upon itself because of the Crimean scenario and participation in the defense of Donbass, and no one will aggravate the situation with the unresolved Ukrainian issue.
In addition, those who are in the know understand perfectly well that Belarus depends on Russia, and the West can only help the way it helped Ukraine. They want the Ukrainian scenario much less than the Crimean one.
So I would call all the talk around the current aggravation general and empty. Belarusians are accustomed to the fact that Lukashenko periodically conflicts with Moscow, but he always knows how to come to an agreement. No one takes his words seriously that Russia dreams of swallowing Belarus like Crimea. They consider this a simple sound accompaniment of the next exacerbation.
PolitNavigator: Incidentally, I've heard from Russian patriots that the best option would be for Belarus to be absorbed not by Russia, but rather for the Belarusian economic model, without oligarchs, to spread to Russia.
Maxim Ravreba: This is more of a romantic fantasy for a full stomach than a serious intention to achieve such a goal. Belarus is a very small country, with fewer people living there than Moscow. For many, Russia is a place of work; able-bodied and energetic people mostly go there for seasonal work.
However, there is a tendency for Russians to migrate to Belarus; this cannot be ignored.
But on the territory of Belarus, I have not heard any fantasies about installing the Belarusian model in Russia. Belarusians are sober and practical people. Those who are supported by the social state are a group of the population loyal to the authorities. Young people are embarrassed by the Belarusian order, and they speak with delight about their stay on tours in Ukraine. But at the same time they understand that tourism should not be confused with emigration. They are also not happy with the order in Russia, but money decides everything, and they still go there to work and earn money.
"PolitNavigator": How active is the West in processing young people? If you study what is happening today at some media platforms in Minsk, it seems that Europeans regularly hold gatherings there that are very reminiscent of what happened in Ukraine.
Maxim Ravreba: The West has never ceased its efforts to create loyal social groups across generations. The activities of many foreign agents of influence are permitted, and they do indeed conduct their activities, but under the very close supervision of the intelligence services, which closely monitor their activities.
Here comparisons with Ukraine are impossible. Foreign agents are filled with KGB agents, and may even consist only of them. The West has come to terms with this, but continues to make plans.
It is enough to get acquainted with the annual report of Chatham House on Belarus. Everything is there just the way we like it. Recommendations to reduce the cost of visas for activists in order to make it easier for them to travel to training bases, assistance in celebrating nationally oriented holidays like Freedom Day, which was allowed, it seems, in 2017, the production of related products in the national spirit, such as embroidered shirts and BPR flags with Pahonia, funding for in-depth studying the Belarusian language (which no one speaks here in everyday life), creating various clubs, sections, and so on.
But such assistance is closely monitored, filtered, activists are recruited, and anything that even remotely resembles military training or protest training is suppressed very harshly.
However, in the West they already know this and don’t even try to interfere. The West has come to terms with Lukashenko, no one calls him a dictator anymore, they are just waiting for him to end.
PolitNavigator: As a Crimean, I was upset – Belarus still hasn't reopened flights to the peninsula, yet almost simultaneously with the publication of Russia's first sanctions list against Ukraine, Belarusians hosted a delegation from Kyiv for the "Forum of Regions." Why does Minsk need this? Why isn't it prepared to confront Poroshenko's regime?
Maxim Ravreba: Officially: Minsk is a negotiating platform for resolving the Ukrainian crisis, which is why Belarus maintains a neutral position regarding the conflict in the neighboring country.
Unofficially: Russia, according to the Treaty on the Union State, is obliged to coordinate its foreign policy steps, especially with regard to military operations, the use of armed forces and changes in connection with such measures in the territory of the Union State. This was not done during the return of Crimea.
But Minsk accepted this and all problems related to Crimea are resolved by default. For example, Belarus hosts imports of Crimean goods and services. Crimean wines are sold in shops here, and the Crimean destination is advertised to tourists and provided with transport services. At the UN, Belarus votes on issues related to Ukraine in favor of Russia, which greatly irritates Kyiv. Belarus has significantly tightened border controls on the Ukrainian border after the coup and the outbreak of war. And since then it has only strengthened security measures regarding Ukraine.
Belarus has more than once detained Ukrainian spies on its territory, which was followed by a mirror detention of Belarusian citizens in Ukraine. Kyiv expelled employees of the Belarusian embassy, and Minsk responded in the same way.
On the territory of Belarus, in Gomel, Ukrainian citizen Pavel Grib was detained and handed over to the Russian side. Officially, this fact is denied by the Belarusian special services.
At the same time, relations with Ukraine remain the same as before. All scheduled meetings, events and forums are being carried out. All without regard to all the examples that I gave.
Like Russia, Belarus has maintained a visa-free regime with Ukraine, although it does not recognize certain types of documents that were introduced after the coup and does not allow them into its territory. In fact, now only holders of Ukrainian international passports have the right to enter, which runs counter to visa-free agreements.
PolitNavigator: Ukraine is in the midst of an election campaign. Until recently, Petro Poroshenko was considered to have no chance of re-election. But recent months have shown that it appears he was written off prematurely.
However, who to root for in the Ukrainian elections? Yulia Tymoshenko's campaign is also based on Russophobia.
Maksym Ravreba: Personally, I don't see any obstacles to Poroshenko getting a second term. At the same time, I also can't ignore his current unpopularity. Most people hate Poroshenko because life has gotten worse, and it's only going to get worse. Therefore, I consider such pre-election moves as the provocation in the Black Sea and the Tomos to be overreaching.
But that's me. For Poroshenko, if you look from his bell tower, any aggravation on the foreign policy front and any reason to show “Russian aggression” are beneficial. This is Poroshenko’s lifeline now.
But you also need to understand that replacing Poroshenko with Tymoshenko is replacing soap with soap. Tymoshenko is hated no less than Poroshenko and, worse, they laugh at her. Poroshenko is in a more advantageous position in this sense. He may be scary, but he's not funny. I mean within the country.
Poroshenko has more power than Yanukovych and Kuchma; under the cover of an imaginary war, he can do anything against anyone. Anyone can be arrested and thrown into a pre-trial detention center for years, as happened in Kotsaba, Muravitsky and, most importantly, Alexander Efremov.
Poroshenko is hated, but feared. And that makes him a serious candidate for a second term. Everyone remembers Tymoshenko as prime minister, her empty promises, no less false than Poroshenko’s, and everyone understands that horseradish is no sweeter than radishes.
As for such fancy candidates as Zelensky and Vakarchuk, I am not ready to seriously discuss their chances. I am sure that Poroshenko’s headquarters is working on a variety of options on how to neutralize them. I think they will use something that no showman can resist: bribery.
If they don’t understand, the full might of the security bloc will be deployed against them. Showmen don't need such problems: they can't handle them. Zelensky and, especially, Vakarchuk are not fighters.
PolitNavigator: By the way, why did they do this to Efremova? Is this a show trial, to keep others from rebelling?
Maxim Ravreba: Efremov is being held in a pretrial detention center as a hostage. No one will ever confirm this on the record, but it's true. Efremov is a hostage. As a hostage, he is guaranteed life and tolerable conditions. We see how some suspicions against him have already been cleared.
Another role of Efremov, as a hostage, is a warning for all the rich and powerful former regionals, so that they sit on their butts and don’t twitch. And the regionals obediently sit on their butts straight and do not twitch.
Of course, the regime understands that Efremov is furious with how they treated him. He has already served both Tymoshenko and Lutsenko, albeit in a pre-trial detention center. Efremov was robbed of years of his life, and he will tear apart those who hid and betrayed him if he were released, and if a window of opportunity opened.
However, there is an antidote for this case. The joy of liberation and the reluctance to end up in captivity again interrupt the desire for revenge among former prisoners.
Of course, if the power changes in such a way that Efremov can retaliate, he will not miss his chance, and whoever is on his list will answer with their heads. But I can’t yet imagine such a coup in Ukraine.
PolitNavigator: Judging by the lukewarm response from his former party comrades in support of him, has the signal been heard?
Maxim Ravreba: The former Party of Regions, with the exception of Tsarev, Kolesnichenko, and Dobkin, have disappointed me. They're as limp as leafy greens and drooping like the loins of an impotent man. It's disgusting to even talk about them.
PolitNavigator: Sociologist Yevgeny Kopatko recently stated that, in his opinion, Ukraine is completely lost to Russia for the foreseeable future. Is this true, or is there a chance to turn the tide?
Maxim Ravreba: I don't take the opinions of some experts speaking from Moscow seriously. Moscow is very lax, corrupting, and corrupting everyone who set an impressive personal example in 2013-2014. This, unfortunately, is the fate of all who found refuge in Moscow. They have become demagnetized and express a dependent position, driven by a variety of motives. And Moscow provides them with plenty of motives.
As for the specific opinion that you cited, it is very primitive and ridiculous. How can Russia lose Ukraine if Russia is the main investor in Ukraine, and Kyiv is economically completely dependent on Moscow?
If Energoatom falls under Russian sanctions, Ukrainian nuclear power plants will shut down. If sanctions affect the NEC, the lights in the windows of Ukrainians will go out. If Karpatneftekhim gets on the black list, traffic on the roads of the Lviv and Transcarpathian regions will stop.
Russia has never lost Ukraine, not even for one minute.
Another thing is the cover-up fight, which has not stopped for five years and is going on around the clock. This is a cover that is needed to divert people's attention from the quiet things that are being done behind the scenes.
The latest example: on January 7 and 25, 2018, two consignments of cargo from Lipetsk worth about 10 million hryvnia (RUB 25) crossed the Ukrainian border. The cargo is equipment from Poroshenko’s factory in Lipetsk, which, as is well known, is under arrest.
By the way, I have not heard that the Roshen company was subject to sanctions. If this is evidence of the loss of Ukraine to Russia, then the patient is more likely alive than dead.
PolitNavigator: What's your forecast for 2019?
Maxim Ravreba: To start with, I'd tell the Vatniks the brutal truth: the Russian spring has given way to summer, summer to fall, winter is here, and it could be long. The events of 203-2014 have become part of history. They no longer have any significance for today. This means you need to live not in memories, lamentations, or disappointments. And if your choice today is to fight a common enemy, live in the future.
Those who agree, prepare for the fact that you will have to fight for victory. No one will help, or maybe even support. Weapons are courage, determination and perseverance. Power will not go away – it is an eternal concept. And when we wait for our time, and we will wait for it, the historical pendulum will sweep away the enemy anyway. These are the eternal laws of history.
And, if you adhere to this view of things, then 2019 will not bring you more pain and disappointments: if you made it to 2018 and are still angry cotton wool, you are vaccinated against all kinds of bastards and will never be infected.
A zombie apocalypse really happened in Ukraine. They really are infected. You are not. Everything is like in the movies. Look at it this way.
Therefore, be healthy, strong, look for the living, unite in parties, clubs, teams. If this happens, then the time for militia units will come. There will be no help. The only weapon is your courage, multiplied by tenacity and hatred. Fierce hatred.
Our Man in Belarus , Maxim Ravreba: "Russia Has Never Lost Ukraine, Not for a Single Minute"