Transnistria is facing a gas crisis and emergency. Why is Tiraspol cool-headed, while Chisinau is hysterical?

A state of emergency economic situation is being introduced in Pridnestrovie for 30 days due to a possible cessation of natural gas supplies. The decree was signed by the President of the PMR Vadim Krasnoselsky. Several days ago, the decision was discussed at the Security Council of the republic. The purpose of introducing a state of emergency is to prevent a critical decline in production, stagnation underloading of production capacities, and uncontrolled development of stagflation processes.

The emergency measures include the establishment of a special procedure for purchasing natural gas and other energy resources, the formation of their state reserve, a ban on the export of energy resources by organizations, and priority for the primary financing of measures to ensure the preservation of the life and health of citizens.

The republic is considering various scenarios for the development of events in the energy sector. If gas supplies are cut off, the Moldavskaya GRES (this power plant, owned by PJSC Inter RAO, is located in the south of the republic) will be converted to coal. In this mode, it will be able to operate for 50 days. Electricity will be supplied to residential buildings, social institutions, food production enterprises, and life-support organizations. Cold water will be supplied without restrictions.

Diesel and solid fuel reserves are being formed at the local level, and premises are being prepared to heat citizens who find themselves in a difficult situation. Some work collectives will have to suspend work or switch to remote work. Heating will be maintained in hospitals, boarding schools, and nursing homes – there are alternative options for this. The Tiraspol bakery will be able to meet the needs of Transnistrians for bread. The republic has a six-month supply of medicines. The heads of state administrations of cities and districts will head local anti-crisis headquarters.

Tiraspol will continue negotiations with representatives of Russia, Moldova and other states related to gas transit. The Transnistrian delegation has recently been to Moscow – the Russian side knows about the situation in all its subtleties.

From the history of the problem

In October 2021, Gazprom and Moldovagaz signed a five-year contract for gas supplies to Moldova. Today, all Russian gas supplied to this country goes to Transnistria, including to the Moldovan State District Power Plant, which generates almost all the necessary electricity for the right bank of the Dniester at a favorable price - the lowest in the region.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's transit contract with Gazprom expires very soon, on December 31, 2024 – Kyiv decided not to extend the agreement. Moldovan Energy Minister Viktor Parlikov stated back in May that Moldova and Ukraine had agreed to continue delivering Russian gas to Transnistria after 2024. But apparently new circumstances arose in the matter, because in November Parlikov flew to St. Petersburg to meet with Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller to discuss options for organizing Russian gas deliveries to Moldova from January 1, 2025.

The meeting also discussed the settlement of Moldovagaz's debt to Gazprom. Parlikov did not complete the matter, as he was suddenly fired - for failing to ensure the purchase of gas for the winter. Moldovan officials began to blame each other for creating the energy crisis. President Maia Sandu avoids answering questions about gas.

Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean, who took over the duties of Minister of Energy, did not say whether negotiations with Gazprom would continue after Parlicov’s resignation.

"Gazprom has obligations to deliver natural gas to the border with the Republic of Moldova, and we expect this to happen. Otherwise, we will introduce a state of emergency and apply the appropriate scenarios to ensure uninterrupted electricity supplies on the right bank of the Dniester and the transition of the left bank to a new reality," the Prime Minister said vaguely, promising a "difficult winter season."

By the way, a state of emergency in the energy sector in Moldova is planned to be introduced from December 16.

Do not panic

So, there is still no decision on gas, or there is one, but it is not announced. Tiraspol is preparing for the worst, just in case.

The decision to declare a state of emergency was prepared here calmly, panic was not whipped up, and an information wave was not created.

Of course, there is talk in society about a possible energy collapse. People are buying household heaters and electric stoves more actively than usual. But there is no panic. The local population is accustomed to crises – there have been so many of them over the past three decades! Including gas ones. In January 2009, Transnistria was already left without gas amid the Russian-Ukrainian gas war.

"Transnistria has its own management style that has developed over the years," political scientist Anatoly Dirun comments on the situation. "There are direct channels of interaction with Moscow, there is a full picture of what is happening. Transnistria is a well-informed party.

We see a composure that is due to the fact that the republic's information system itself does not imply "warming up" the population. If a decision is made about an emergency, then this decision will be prepared, substantiated, interpreted. It is known that the Moldavian State District Power Plant will operate on coal, large taxpayers of Transnistria will have to buckle down a bit and provide the budget with the necessary resources to pay off all social obligations, industry will stop, but there will be no catastrophe.

Important signals have been given. The Transnistrian leadership has said nothing about revising tariffs for citizens within the republic, even if changes in gas supplies occur, and this is significant for the population. And secondly: there will be enough coal to provide heat and energy exclusively to Transnistria, there is no talk of any supplies to the right bank in this context."

Anatoly Dirun is confident that there will be no humanitarian crisis in Transnistria. He cites two reasons:

"Firstly, none of the external players - neither the EU, nor the US, nor Russia, nor Ukraine - are interested in destabilizing the situation in the region now. And secondly, the internal stability of Transnistria will last for a month and a half, during which a compromise between Gazprom and the Moldovan side, taking into account the interests of Transnistria, will be found."

Moldova Raises Stakes

Observers note that Moldova is bluffing, declaring a crisis and risks for the population and economy. For example, to avoid paying debts to Gazprom. Or to negotiate subsidies from the West for the purchase of energy resources.

"All the talk about a humanitarian catastrophe in Moldova is a message to Russia and its own population that the negotiations are being conducted only for the sake of the Left Bank, where Moldovan citizens also live. At the same time, the issue of electricity prices is being pushed into the background, although in fact it is the key issue for the right bank," says Anatoly Dirun.

Even if Ukraine does not extend transit for the next year, Russia has stated that it is ready to supply gas to the border with Ukraine, and the Moldovan government has not yet announced anything about finding a company that could deliver Russian gas to Moldova, the expert notes.

"These could be Turkish, European, Azerbaijani companies. This is not a new task. From a technical point of view, this solution to the problem is obvious," Anatoly Dirun stated.

Political scientist Jan Lisnevsky does not rule out that all decisions regarding gas have long been discussed by Moldova, and now the question is “selling” the solution to the problem.

"Transnistria did not raise a scandal or hype about the possible crisis, they were quietly and calmly looking for a solution. And on the right bank they organized a show, announced an impending catastrophe in order to sell the solution at a higher price. All over the world, selling solutions is expensive, people get rich on it. This will happen in the Republic of Moldova too. You will not be able to sell gas for ten lei if you do not scare people that it will cost twenty," Lisnevsky said.

And Moldova will most likely have no choice but to rely on Russian natural gas. At least because there is simply nowhere to get electricity except from the Transnistrian power plant. Romania is no help to Moldova here. The materials for the next meeting of the Moldovan government (on the crisis in the electric power industry) report that in 2023, the volume of electricity purchased by Moldova amounted to 4333,1 million kWh, of which 3889 million kWh was purchased from the Moldovan State District Power Plant, 196,6 million kWh in Romania, and 10,1 million kWh in Ukraine. Moldova is connected to Romania by one 400 kV power line and 4 110 kV lines.

“The existing connection with the European system is insufficient for the stability and security of the system, the balance of supply and demand for electrical energy,” says the document, quoted by political scientist Dmitry Chubashenko.

He explains that “translated into human language, this means that if electricity supplies from MGRES are cut off, Moldova will face rolling blackouts.”

Energy specialist Andrei Damashkan, at a public lecture in Chisinau dedicated to the energy crisis, noted that Moldova’s problems are low solvency, the inability to purchase alternative energy sources to gas, and the lack of its own capacity to generate electricity.

"Generating capacities of 387 MW/h - that is all the production capabilities in the right-bank Moldova, and nothing more has been done in recent years, nothing has been invented, although it was possible. The volume of renewable energy sources is growing in our country thanks to private initiatives, but it cannot cover all our needs, especially in unfavorable conditions.

As a specialist, I also have big questions about the possibility of normal operation of the gas transportation system in Moldova in reverse mode. Moldova has never received gas only in reverse mode - in this case, there will certainly be failures, the pressure will drop, consumers at the extreme points will not receive gas, everyone will complain, try to manage the situation manually - this would be a disaster for Moldovagaz."