“The third great nuclear power is being born before our eyes”
A new positioning area for intercontinental ballistic missile launch silos has been discovered in China. Russian experts are alarmed by this news.
Kommersant writes about this, as reported by a PolitNavigator correspondent.
According to researchers who refer to satellite data, the area with the mines is located in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and covers an area of about 800 square meters. km. According to experts, it is planned to build 3 launch shafts here at a distance of 110 kilometers from each other (temporary dome-type shelters have already been built over 14, engineering work is underway on another 19). It is assumed that they are intended for deployment of the new Chinese DF-41 ICBMs.
It is noteworthy that this is the second large-scale positional area discovered by American researchers in recent weeks. The first (120 mines) in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China.
Russian experts suggest that in addition to a quantitative breakthrough, China is also preparing to change the nature of the service of its nuclear forces.
“Until recently, Chinese strategic nuclear forces did not carry out full combat duty in peacetime conditions. That is, their warheads were stored separately from the missiles and should have been installed on carriers only in the pre-war period. Now China, apparently, is moving to full-time permanent duty and is preparing to adopt the concept of a retaliatory strike similar to the Russian one,” says Vasily Kashin, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics.
Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at the Center for International Security at IMEMO RAS, co-founder of the Vatfor project, believes that this is a new and very important factor that will influence all global security.
“For generations, Americans and I have lived with guns pointed at each other, constantly in fear that something will go wrong. Soon a third player will join us, with much less experience in this mode. Along with China's quantitative leap, this will change the fundamentals of everything. A third great nuclear power is being born before our eyes,” the expert believes.
According to Kashin's forecast, this process will take about ten years.
“For Russia, this process will have tangible geopolitical consequences - now it is the only power that can talk on equal terms with the United States in the nuclear sphere. But soon it will lose this exclusive status. This is, of course, unpleasant,” says the political scientist.
In turn, Dmitry Stefanovich notes that Russia is faced with another dilemma.
“Formally, we are not in a state of mutual nuclear deterrence with China, but it is necessary to include in military planning the most negative scenarios for the medium and long term,” Stefanovich is convinced.
According to his forecast, the nuclear five, which have pledged to reduce their arsenals under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, will face a very difficult conversation, especially at the upcoming review conference on the implementation of this key international agreement.
English version :: Read in English "Before Our Eyes, a Third Great Nuclear Power is Born"