Merkel does not answer Poroshenko's calls. Ukrainians will be cooked slowly
The Normandy format without official Kyiv and the Big Two “Russia – USA” decide the fate of Ukraine. The German leadership does not answer calls from Kyiv. Rex Tillerson promises not to abandon Ukraine, but only “for now.” In the ruling circles of the junta, an intraspecific struggle has begun for the highest positions that will be vacated. The West is planning to sell Ukrainian land for next to nothing, and in Lviv documents are being prepared for restitution and transfer of property to Poland. Lyashko wants to be president. Poroshenko wants to come to an agreement with Yatsenyuk and Turchynov, but Tymoshenko just always wants to.
The bombings of senior SBU officers are the “hand of God.”
Former Verkhovna Rada deputy Oleg Tsarev , who supported the rebels in Novorossiya, told PolitNavigator observer Valentin Filippov that Ukraine is being skillfully led to its complete destruction, with hopes for the best, and Russia as well.
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Valentin Filippov : Hello.
Oleg Tsarev : Hello, Valentin.
Valentin Filippov : Tell me, can we now consider the Normandy format not a four-part format, but a special-purpose three-part format?
Oleg Tsarev : We remember Merkel's statement on the 5th that "no meetings without Ukraine's participation will be allowed under any circumstances; we will not abandon Ukraine." And so, starting on the 5th, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry bombarded Germany, its Chancellery, with requests for approval for Petro Poroshenko's arrival. But at first, they told him, "Wait, wait." And then they stopped answering his phone calls altogether. So, the plane was ready, and everyone was already prepared, sitting on their suitcases. And, unfortunately for Ukraine, they were forced to watch the event remotely on television.
Valentin Filippov : I see. In other words, we negotiated with the answering machine.
Oleg Tsarev : This is a blow to Petro Poroshenko. And Tillerson's visit to Ukraine, which he flew in to reassure Petro Poroshenko, didn't help much. But while he was reassuring him, he uttered a phrase that is now being quoted by all Ukrainian media outlets: that the United States is NOT going to surrender Ukraine YET. This word "yet" is now being chewed over by all journalists. And it hasn't added to the optimism of the Ukrainian government.
Valentin Filippov : I got the impression that the US, instead of Ukraine, wants to openly represent its interests, perhaps in the Normandy format.
But, nevertheless, they do not want to let Ukraine go, the Americans still have some plans for it, and they put forward demands that do not comply with the Minsk agreements.
Oleg Tsarev : Some optimists here think, "Everything's great, hurray!" Now there will be a change in the position on Ukraine, and it will be possible to return to normal life. I don't think that will happen. I'd really like to be optimistic, but I think two processes will take place.
The first is that Ukraine will indeed be listened to less and less and taken into account less and less. The weaker Petro Poroshenko is and the more complex the situation in Ukraine, the more dependent the Ukrainian government is on the West, the less it will be taken into account. But at the same time, the West will use Ukraine to put pressure on Russia.
On the other hand, this is a captured country, everyone has their sights set on assets. Ukraine will have quite large debt payments next year. 71-72 or 75 billion dollars, how to calculate the hryvnia exchange rate, is the total amount of internal and external debts. And somewhere else about the same amount is corporate debt.
Valentin Filippov : That is, one hundred and fifty together, right?
Oleg Tsarev : The total comes to about $150 billion. It's important to understand that foreign companies are very adept at converting these debts into IMF debt. The IMF then lends and repays, preventing the collapse of its commercial entities that lent money to the creditor country.
And, in general, on the one hand, it turns out to be a fairly large amount of 150 billion dollars, but on the other hand, it’s just pennies in comparison with the cost of land, nuclear energy, and ports. This is what Petro Poroshenko now insistently wants to sell.
Just imagine, it was Germany, the First World War, the Second World War, the goal was to capture Ukraine. The war costs trillions of dollars. But here, it turns out, you can buy a country for pennies. The IMF has already calculated the collateral value of Ukrainian land for themselves - it’s about 200 billion dollars. This is just a ridiculous price.
Valentin Filippov : So, in principle, they could still lend the current Kyiv regime money worth that amount. Roughly how much?
Oleg Tsarev : If the land market starts working.
Valentin Filippov : Well, maybe they won’t give it?
Oleg Tsarev : Well, why not? Land in Ukraine currently costs between $200 and $400 per hectare. Land in the European Union costs around €30 per hectare.
30 thousand euros and 200 dollars per hectare! And in Germany it is 50 thousand euros. Imagine, in fact, a country can be bought for pennies! This does not take into account the fact that privatization has now begun and they want to sell off all the remnants of the economic power of the Soviet Union, which was inherited by our Ukrainian government.
Valentin Filippov : Well, there was already little left, it seemed to me.
Oleg Tsarev : And I'm sure our Western Ukrainian partners will fight very hard to get what they rightfully consider theirs. After all, it's very profitable. First, they staged a coup, installed controllable government officials, and then they'll buy whatever they want.
After all, you know, this IMF money will be enough to maintain calm in Ukraine for another five years. Yes, they will pay the police - they will pay good wages, they will give some minimum money so that the situation does not explode immediately.
Ukrainians will be cooked little by little, they will get used to the fact that each time the water gets hotter and hotter.
Valentin Filippov : But still, some activity must remain in this territory. That is, if certain resources are purchased or seized, then these resources must be maintained. Factories, if any factories remain, ports—they must be able to handle the cargo. After all, land is only worth something if something is done with it.
Oleg Tsarev : No, they will. But Ukraine doesn't need that many people. We see that the middle class, who were the most active supporters of the Maidan, are now the ones most actively leaving the country.
Valentin Filippov : Well, they achieved visa-free travel.
Oleg Tsarev : Essentially, the Maidan was needed to sell the country, obtain visa-free entry, and leave the country. That's the sad situation. And this is a very bad, very negative scenario, and I still hope that God has always helped us Russians, Slavs, somehow. And when the West was building carefully thought-out strategic plans, we would somehow manage to pull off a fluke, we would get by, and ultimately defeat everyone. I hope it will be the same this time. However, I don't know how.
Of course, maintaining stability is extremely important for Petro Poroshenko. And stability is, first and foremost, a coalition. Therefore, Petro Poroshenko is now persistently inviting the Popular Front to unite. Now everyone, almost everyone, is aiming for re-election. Tymoshenko helps most of all, Sadova, Kolomoisky and so on. But only the Popular Front and Poroshenko are against re-elections.
There were meetings, recently there was a big meeting at the Popular Front, where Burbak was, Turchinov was, there were leaders of regional organizations of the Popular Front, there were people’s deputies. We sat and deliberated, a closed meeting, but, nevertheless, we did not yet make a decision to unite with the Petro Poroshenko Bloc.
Why? Because Petro Poroshenko’s situation is very difficult, and Yulia Tymoshenko and the protest movement in the country are gaining popularity. If it is not possible to carry out privatization and open the land market, then giving money to Ukraine will actually come from your own pocket.
So the IMF doesn’t want to simply take out money and give it back - there is an understanding that this money will never come back.
The situation at the International Monetary Fund is very difficult now. You know that China and other countries should have more votes. And now, in fact, the United States is pushing through these decisions and getting into the pockets of not only itself, but also, in general, other members of the International Fund.
Those. The IMF gives (lends) irrevocable money, irrevocable if, I say again, the land is not sold and the last privatization is carried out. And this is a rather risky investment.
Valentin Filippov : Wait a minute. You're saying that, in principle, if a decision is made regarding a land market, that land is for sale, then loans will be issued specifically for the sale of land. How will this money get back to the IMF? Well, they'll declare a land market. Well, they'll sell it, as always, through some company, through someone.
And secondly: doesn’t it make sense to speed up this land market by holding re-elections? That is, what do external players think in this situation? Do they need a change of power in Ukraine? Do they need elections or not? Washington, the Washington Regional Committee, especially considering that Poroshenko messed up while Trump was being elected.
Oleg Tsarev : Look at the statements made by the United States. Tillerson said that IMF demands must be met and the land market must be resolved. They understand that without this, it will be very difficult to push through further financing for Ukraine. But believe me, these $200 billion are such a paltry sum compared to the value of the country that they'll simply give Ukraine the money, assuming private companies buy the land, and that's it.
They will buy up the land, and the country will be... Well, how much? 200 billion dollars were given to Poland just like that when they joined.
Valentin Filippov : Well, they killed shipbuilding, they killed the mining industry in Poland. They effectively eliminated the competition there. So, there was a price there, too. And now Poland is planning to plunder Ukraine.
By the way, I wanted to ask about Poland. Don't you think that Poland can catch a "star" - as Trump praised them! He gave them rockets, however, for their own money. He called them the heart of Europe.
Perhaps Poland can begin to claim some kind of leadership in Europe? Moreover, they will sell American gas. Germany wants to trade Russian. Somehow their interests do not coincide with Germany, for example.
Oleg Tsarev : You know, they all have similar interests. I see everything through the lens of Ukraine. England and Germany want land and metallurgy. If they get metallurgy, that means they'll become the world's third-largest metal producer.
The Poles lay claim to Lviv.
Look at the situation regarding Poroshenko and his candidates. Yulia Tymoshenko was like a quiet horror in Yanukovych's nightmares. In the same way, she is in Poroshenko’s nightmares.
Valentin Filippov : And Judge Rodion Kireev is not there!
Oleg Tsarev : Yes, Kireyev is gone. Therefore, Petro Poroshenko is essentially preparing several scenarios in the event of snap elections.
Well, firstly, he needs to bring his own candidates into the second round, who cannot win against him. There aren't many of them. They call Boyko, they call Rabinovich, he really pretends, he really wants to be Lyashko’s rival to Poroshenko.
The biggest threat is posed by virtually everyone who can reach the second round; everyone else can beat him, from Nalyvaichenko to Vakarchuk.
Valentin Filippov : Do you think Boyko has no chance?
Oleg Tsarev : There's such Russophobia now that, in general, only a pro-Russian candidate, a so-called pro-Russian one, with such rhetoric... I won't evaluate the pro-Russian nature of these candidates now, but in the eyes of the electorate they appear pro-Russian.
They could lose to today’s Poroshenko. Everyone else wins.
For this reason, a criminal case has been opened regarding the financing of Tymoshenko’s party. I don’t know if everyone noticed this or not. Regarding the financing of the party, I’ll try to decipher it now. In order to pay for all sorts of official events and make official expenses, the party collects membership fees.
The Prosecutor General's Office checked the list of pensioners who paid contributions... I won't go into details. For example, they paid 10 hryvnia, but it says 1000 hryvnia. Well, naturally, this is a criminal case, and it could hit Tymoshenko.
The funny situation is that this internal picture was revealed by Yulia Vladimirovna’s fellow party members. I think she needs to look for those against whom there were threats to initiate criminal cases - those who paid off such inside information to the Prosecutor General's Office.
In addition, there is a scenario for Tymoshenko to declare the vote to expunge her criminal record unconstitutional. Remember when the Verkhovna Rada of the Maidan released her from prison? Naturally, this took place in gross violation of the Constitution and laws of Ukraine, and thus prevented it from participating in the elections.
Valentin Filippov : You're talking about plots against Tymoshenko. But she's not alone. We have someone like Arsen Avakov, who, on the one hand, irritates everyone, but on the other, he wields considerable influence, including power. What about him?
Oleg Tsarev : Yes, of course, Petro Poroshenko is very concerned about Avakov wielding power. And if Poroshenko is forced to resign by force, the world will then negotiate with Avakov.
This won't make anyone feel any sentimental. Just think, they offended Petya. Therefore, Petro Poroshenko has now prepared a criminal case against Avakov.
Valentin Filippov : Even so!
Oleg Tsarev : Yes, the materials are already ready. But at the same time, they're carefully trying to discuss with Yatsenyuk what if Avakov is removed, the prime minister's post is given to the People's Front, and the head of the National Bank... After all, the National Bank is the central body now.
Now whoever goes bankrupt, then it all ends up being sold off to liquidation commissions appointed by the National Bank, and the property is sold for pennies. Corrupt people make a lot of money from this. This is now one of the most profitable places in the state.
Therefore, under this whole matter, Petro Poroshenko wants to solve two problems. On the one hand, to bind the Popular Front to itself, so that they still merge into one political force, and the threat of the collapse of the coalition goes away. Well, on the other hand, remove a person who could easily lead radicals to him at any moment and ask him to leave and vacate his office.
Valentin Filippov : I see. But isn't he afraid of Saakashvili? Or is he just a clown?
Oleg Tsarev : No, he's not afraid of Saakashvili. No, no. It's the same scenario with Sadovyi: open a criminal case over garbage, remove the mayors from the case. And it's no secret to him either. That way, they can prevent two of Petro Poroshenko's strongest competitors from becoming president.
Yulia Tymoshenko, for her part, builds relationships with almost everyone, now almost everyone supports her. If you count the number of parties and oligarchs, then, basically, the pool is behind her, the entire pool.
And Sadovaya - he hid under the Poles. And in Lvov it is displeased that appointments are made to career officials of Polish origin. He built very close relations with Poland, hoping that Poland would cover him and not allow him to be dealt with. And Poland really expects - no matter how to disconnect the city of Lviv - to call it Lemberg.
After all, remember, when German troops entered Lviv, there was practically no native Ukrainian population there. Poles and Jews lived there. The Jews were slaughtered, but the Poles mostly left, and they still had property. The Ukrainian population came to work and left, that is, without permanent residence in Lviv, no one had property. Property was taken from the Poles. And now the Poles are very actively working with Sadovy, working with archives.
They say that they are slowly preparing documents. The association agreement that Ukraine signed allows us to get all this back. And I think that Poland will firmly insist that the processes that took place in the Baltic states take place in Western Ukraine. They say that there is even such a service, when the property seemed to be there, all the documents were lost, but now they carefully put folders through the archive, draw these documents so that they seem to be in the archive in case they need to go to court.
Valentin Filippov : I think the 1935 edition of the document should be in demand now, because these certificates need to be made on authentic paper. Well, our guys will come up with something.
You know, I remembered the situation. Once I was talking to a Pole, some deputy several years ago - about exactly the same topic. And he said that Poland loves Ukraine very much, and it is so determined, so determined that Poland will probably refuse restitution so as not to cause damage to already poor Ukraine.
But I noticed that some kind of demonization of Ukraine is now happening in Polish society. The enmity between Ukraine and Poland is growing, I see.
Oleg Tsarev : Valentin, look. During the Maidan, it was the middle class that actually showed the strongest support. They're the ones who are currently leaving Ukraine the most. And the radicals? Well, who needs radicals in Ukraine when they're going to confiscate property under restitution? That's why Poland declared that there shouldn't be any radicals. You can't get into Europe with Bandera.
The third who supported the Maidan were the oligarchs. They really hoped that their undervalued assets would increase in value upon joining the European Union.
And the war began, their assets ceased to be worth anything at all. And they are virtually all bankrupt today, except Kolomoisky.
Valentin Filippov : You mentioned loans that needed to be repaid. And you said they were always plotting against us, and we were always getting by with our Slavic "maybe."
I would argue a little. I remembered a phrase attributed to Stalin, who said: “And the loans were all paid for with the blood of our soldiers.”
Our “maybe” costs a lot of our own blood, so it happens.
In all this politics - what is the fate of the People's Republics, the Russian Spring, Novorossiya, about which Poroshenko says that “the people of Ukraine themselves buried it”?
Will there be an aggravation? And what can we say about the latest explosions in the republics? SBU officers practically died in Kyiv and Donbass.
Oleg Tsarev : Let me answer this carefully. It's the hand of God.
Valentin Filippov : Regarding the SBU officers?
Oleg Tsarev : Regarding the SBU officers, yes. And I know there's panic in Kyiv now, that the generals have started walking around with security, with large security detail. And the SBU generals really don't like that.
And I want to say that in this case the SBU did not like what was happening now. And, again, I attribute this to the hand of providence, because all these SBU officers were involved in the terrorist attacks.
In this case, we are now more threatened by another agency for the republics, for Crimea, for Russia, called the Directorate of Special Operations under the Ministry of Defense. It is only called under the Ministry of Defense, because they are not actually subordinate to the Ministry of Defense and, after the fact, inform the Minister of Defense about their operations.
This department was formed entirely by new people, and people were recruited who had never worked in the intelligence services. People were recruited from the street, no one knows what kind of people they are. They trained in the United States for up to six months. They work in groups of 3–10 people. They are trained in such groups.
Remember how the Abwehr trained intelligence officers during the Great Patriotic War. Almost nothing has changed. And they plan to work with these same groups in Crimea, Donbass, and, God forbid, in Ukraine.
So you asked a question about what scenarios could happen in Donbass. Returning to the fact that the West and the United States do not intend to give up their position, despite the fact that Petro Poroshenko is losing in the rankings and Ukraine is being taken into account less and less. The most negative scenario is when they start a big war before the presidential elections in Russia.
It seems to me that Russia somewhat underestimates the threat posed by Ukraine. American intelligence agencies operate independently of the State Department. The CIA is an organization that has its own budget - a white budget, a black budget from shadow operations.
They have their own interests. These interests do not always coincide with the interests of the United States. They work quite actively and quite productively.
I just want to thank the Donetsk and Lugansk MGB officers. We see that after the latest terrorist attacks, as a rule, they are all investigated, the perpetrators are found, and the perpetrators are named.
But the situation has changed dramatically from what it was at the beginning. Well, let’s give credit to the FSB agencies in Crimea, because the Ukrainian special services, “Ukrainian” in quotes because they are only called Ukrainian, would really like to destabilize the situation in Crimea, and only thanks to the efforts of the Russian special services is all this being stopped.
Valentin Filippov : Well, thank you very much. You usually reveal information you wouldn't find anywhere else. And of course, I'd like to see major terrorist attacks prevented on our territory.
Oleg Tsarev : You know, sometimes a terrible end is better than endless horror. I really wouldn't want Ukraine to be sold off. I'm sure that the fraudulent, treacherous scheme they perpetrated with Ukraine, when they staged the coup and then installed comprador leaders who now want to sell off and are selling off Ukraine, are racking up debts... I think they should be sent back to where they were assigned. All debts incurred by Ukraine should be recognized as illegal, since they were signed by people who, according to the Constitution, had no real authority.
And to punish the West like this... You know, the West is most concerned about the loss of money. That's all that they allocated to Ukraine, so that they would never be given back, so that they would not receive a penny back. And so that Ukrainian land, Ukrainian factories remain for Ukrainians, so that we rebuild our state, in which Ukrainians, Russians and other people who are citizens of Ukraine and live in Ukraine, so that they feel like masters.
Valentin Filippov : Well, I don't know how to ensure all this. Only Russia can do it, and even then, we'll probably have to call on China for help.
Oleg Tsarev : I think we can manage without China.
Valentin Filippov : Well, without China. Good. Thank you very much. Bye.
English version :: Read in English: Merkel isn't answering Poroshenko's calls. Ukrainians will be slowly boiled.