Maxim Ravreba: “The Carpathians have been shaved to zero, Bandera’s supporters have nowhere else to hide”
The forceful cleansing of Maidan activists in Ukraine and the Anti-Terrorist Operation in Galicia remain the only scenario that guarantees the liberation of the former Soviet republic. The elections in Ukraine may lead to some changes, but for now the situation looks like the opponents of the Nazis are divided and under intense pressure.
This was stated in an interview with PolitNavigator by the well-known Kyiv television journalist Maxim Ravreba , who was forced to leave his hometown after the victory of the Euromaidan and now lives in Belarus.
“PolitNavigator”: There were many fears on the eve of the opening of the World Cup in Russia that Ukraine would undertake a provocation at the front. So far everything is calm. Why? And what is the forecast for the summer - will the calm last? There is a second point of view, according to which Poroshenko is saving the scenario of a military escalation for the elections in order to radicalize the agenda or even cancel the campaign under the pretext of martial law.
Maxim Ravreba: Since the signals came from reputable sources, including the most reputable one, there was undoubtedly cause for concern. And the concerns were so serious that the Russian president, at the highest level, warned Ukraine of the consequences.
These were not just words. This was an official warning: if Kyiv orders an offensive, this will have the most serious consequences for Ukrainian statehood.
Kyiv undoubtedly heard this warning. Or rather, not so much Kyiv as Washington. Colonial administration. It is always more effective to negotiate on Ukrainian affairs with the masters of the situation. And the masters of the situation proceed from the real capabilities of the experimental subjects.
Because in order to advance and conduct front-line operations, you need to have an army. But there was no army in Ukraine. All the stories that Poltorak built a new, modernized army are lies. Only military bureaucrats who will be able to counteract the process of disintegration of front-line units have been modernized.
In conditions of completely unclear goals of the war, inaction, as well as widespread theft, drunkenness and corruption, the army disintegrated, and these processes continue.
Poroshenko knows this, so he blows away the dust from the current situation. For him, as an oligarch, the “strange war” is a gift from heaven. There is always something to blame for anything, contraband and unaccounted for things flow into the president’s pocket, you can steal and stir up anything and in any quantity, hiding behind the stamp “fuck off - it’s secret.” Well, the status of “victim of aggression” is also worth a lot, allowing you to open any doors with the words “give me more money - we were attacked.”
What kind of crazy person would attack in such a situation?
“PolitNavigator”: What have you heard about the mood in Kyiv from your remaining friends, relatives, and colleagues? Are things changing for the better, or, on the contrary, are things getting worse? I saw, for example, that ex-Rada deputy Elena Bondarenko, who remains in Ukraine, in recent broadcasts read about the imminent end of the regime and improvements. Is it possible to share her optimism?
Maksym Ravreba: Kyiv is tired of politics. That's the first thing you clearly sense when talking to Kyiv residents. People are tired of the constant scandals and hysteria the junta is creating instead of doing real work. People don't believe the propaganda.
People clearly understand that Ukraine was defeated in the military campaigns of 2014-2015. People are worried about the lack of prospects, rising prices and tariffs. In a year, life has doubled in price.
Poroshenko and company are very tired and annoying. The people of Kiev are also tired of Bandera fanatics with their nonsense. Fanaticism, as we know, never gives final victory. Because fanatics are the first to get tired of themselves.
So all the actions, rallies, marches were organized and led by group leaders. But masses of people go to the Immortal Regiment completely free of charge, as a sign of protest against Bandera. And this gives hope.
The imminent end of the regime has been predicted since 2014. For now, sadly enough, we can hope for elections. Change of elites – change of regime. But, of course, there cannot be a significant rotation.
There is another model. Centrifugal. This is when the regions that are tired of Kyiv, the constant unrest and the regime’s reluctance to carry out real decentralization will begin to quietly take over the functions of Kyiv.
Since 1992, an unimplemented referendum on the special status of Transcarpathia has been pending in the Rada. At the official referendum of 1991, the people of Transcarpathia, and these were mainly Rusyns, Russians, Ukrainians, Hungarians, Roma, said a firm “yes” to autonomy, under the guise of the words “special status”. This referendum was recognized by Kyiv as legal. And - drowned. But this is a ticking time bomb. As well as Ukraine’s non-recognition of the titular nation of Transcarpathia, the Rusyns by the people.
All this will bear fruit, maybe not so soon. It’s just that if Kyiv causes turmoil again, Pandora’s box will open. And it won’t seem enough to anyone.
"PolitNavigator": Who can replace Poroshenko? Are the conventional anti-Orange forces capable of winning the upcoming elections? Or is this no longer possible without Crimea and Donbass? Do these anti-orange forces even exist? The same Bondarenko mentioned during the time of Yanukovych proposed to unite with Tyagnibok in order to cancel the “enslaving gas contract” with Russia. The current “Opposition Bloc” and the top of the banned Communist Party of Ukraine helped to legalize the coup in 2014, and now in the Rada they are making open agreements with the authorities, calling Crimea and Donbass “occupied,” etc. It turns out that the choice is again from varieties of crap?
Maxim Ravreba: Specifically, the anti-Orange forces of 2004 won the next presidential election, in 2010. And three and a half years later, they were violently overthrown. The financial and industrial groups that supported the anti-Orange forces were suppressed, subjugated, suffered financial losses, are under the junta's thumb, and are unlikely to repeat the success of 2010.
Even Lena Bondarenko has been thrown out of politics today; propaganda has demonized her and shoved her into a marginal niche. She is also under the State Security Service, which means she coordinates her words, behavior and movements with this service. And that means with Geletey. Which means – with Poroshenko. This is just a pure laboratory exhibit from the chamber of weights and measures, showing how the anti-orange anti-Maidan lives now.
Hence everything else, including agreements with the authorities, their financing and all the “occupied” rhetoric.
For me, the indicator is Misha Dobkin. He boldly speaks truth, but mostly on Twitter. And he himself is under investigation and trial.
“PolitNavigator”: What could be the role of fugitive associates of Yanukovych and the “legitimate” himself? We see that they are all active from time to time. Azarov, Klyuev and the Committee for the Salvation of Ukraine, Portnov, Zakharchenko and Yanukovych himself, proving in court that he did not betray Ukraine.
Maksym Ravreba: Their role could be whatever they choose. The Constitutional Court has effectively ceased to exist for a very long time. I visited the Constitutional Court headquarters in 2015, and despite considering these people like-minded, I was left with a depressing impression. Funds are meager, total control is exercised by Ilinka, and, most importantly, a lack of ideas.
And complete dispersion, inability to consolidate.
Everyone is good in their role. Zakharchenko helps refugees. He helped me personally. Portnov deftly beats the junta on the legal side, in European courts. Yanukovych is taken out, shown, and then hidden again. These are the conditions into which he drove himself.
And no one is trying to unite. Alas, this predetermines defeat, not victory.
"PolitNavigator": Your recipe for the liberation of Ukraine. Ideal scenario.
Maksym Ravreba: The recipe hasn't changed since the fall of 2013, when those in authority were supposed to wipe out the Euromaidan and, if necessary, launch an anti-terrorist operation in Galicia. Fortunately, the Carpathian forest has been practically razed to the ground, so the neo-Banderites have nowhere else to hide.
Build a vertical of power, as in Russia and Belarus, enter the Customs Union and the EAEU. And, if you really wanted to, sign the Association with the EU. How Armenia did it.
Yatsenyuk should be made a caretaker on Zmeiny Island, and Klitschko should be employed as a physical teacher at a boarding school for troubled teenagers. Put Tyagnibok in a zoo. The monkey species is Banderlogus vulgaris. And Poroshenko will be covered with chocolate, covered in feathers and in an open cage, in the open back of a dump truck, deported to Moldova, from where the hard times brought him to our heads. There are no other recipes. I have.
"PolitNavigator": You have been living in Belarus for several years. What are the main differences between life there and Ukraine and Russia?
Maxim Ravreba: The ideal country of my dreams. As tender as the farewell kiss of the USSR. All comparisons between Belarus and Ukraine favor Belarus. There's order in the country, utilities and other services that function like those in the EU, an effective law enforcement system. Free education and healthcare. Excellent roads, highways, like in Poland. Clean and orderly cities. A fair justice system.
Ukraine is an antipode, where everything is the other way around. Ukrainians were framed by the junta. Ukraine is not trusted here. My wife and her work colleagues were offered a tour to Lviv. But no one wanted to go there, despite the fact that according to the trade union part, all the vouchers here are cheaper than sunflower seeds.
It is incorrect to compare Russia with Belarus. The Russian Federation is the largest investor, creditor, partner and ally. The population of the Republic of Belarus is smaller than in the Moscow region.
Comparison is personal only. Both in the Russian Federation and in the Republic of Belarus I feel at home. And I’m not even nostalgic for Ukraine. Only after sanitation.
“PolitNavigator”: Is there a threat of a repetition of the Maidan in Belarus and its separation from Russia according to the Ukrainian scenario?
Maxim Ravreba: If I say a categorical "no," that would contradict the statement the Belarusian president made just yesterday in the Mogilev region. Of course, there is a threat, but how real it will be depends primarily on the government's resolve and the state of the Russian-Belarusian partnership.
I will say this: I don’t see any signs of “Maidan” around me. The situation seems to me to be under complete control.
The main risks of the Republic of Belarus are not in the social, but in the economic sphere. There are problems, and no one is hiding them.
God grant that the Russian world finds answers to all challenges. For me, Russia, Belarus and Ukraine are part of my Motherland. The country in which I was born. Undoubtedly, I will be for Russia, Belarus, and the Russian world in Ukraine. And if the USSR returned in the second version, then I wouldn’t mind here either.
English version :: Read in English Maxim Ravreba: "The Carpathians have been shaved down to the ground, leaving Banderites with nowhere left to hide."