How a Kyiv pastry chef enraged Angela Merkel
Rostislav Ishchenko, political scientist, columnist for MIA Rossiya Segodnya
In order to answer the question why the process of resolving the Ukrainian crisis is taking so long, we need to understand one simple thing - the Ukrainian crisis would not have arisen if the Ukrainian ruling elite had been at least minimally adequate, not even to the level of management of a modern state, but at least to the level of compliance own interests.
Let me explain with an example. Poroshenko, Klitschko, Yatsenyuk, Tyagnybok, Turchynov and other authors, editors and participants in the Ukrainian coup, down to ordinary Nazis, were better off, more profitable financially and more promising politically under the rule of Yanukovych than after the seizure of power.
The five mentioned were promising political figures: Klitschko, Yatsenyuk and Tyagnybok - rating leaders of political forces, Poroshenko - a constant contender for top positions, having already managed to be noted as the Minister of Economy and Foreign Affairs, as well as the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council. Turchynov controlled one of the largest political parties in the country, which was guaranteed to enter parliament in any situation, and in the conditions of Yanukovych’s inevitable loss in the 2015 elections, he turned out to be one of the leaders of the legally victorious opposition that became the government.
The Nazi marginals, who later formed the Maidan self-defense, volunteer battalions and other illegal armed formations of the putschists, lived more than comfortably under Yanukovych. They beat and sometimes killed whoever they wanted, whenever they wanted.
The maximum punishment is being taken to the police station, from where they were released almost immediately (during the period 2010-2014, only a couple of completely inveterate criminals were actually caught in the village, who became so insolent that it was impossible not to imprison them). The regionals financed the Nazis in a race. This is not counting the “help” from Western friends, not only financial, but also organizational.
Ordinary grant-eaters from pro-Western media and NGOs were paid well for completely unprofessional work (it was only to them that they thought they were journalists or experts). In addition, the same regionals groomed them, cherished them, curried favor with them, and even paid extra for the fact that the grant-eaters scolded them at all costs and called for them to be hanged.
After the coup, the Nazis were sent to the front, where the usual impunity immediately ended, and they also began to be killed, which from their point of view is a blatant injustice. They stopped paying the grant eaters (the criminal regime was overthrown, there is no one else to fight with). The dumbest of them also ended up on the front line (some have already died safely), the smartest went to volunteer, but there is high competition there - not everyone can get to serious cash flows, the majority have to rat on socks and stew.
The political elite discovered that, having seized power, they simultaneously destroyed the country. There is no law, no order, no money left in Ukraine. Moreover, in addition, everyone involved in power has imposed a criminal article on themselves that has no statute of limitations (for crimes against humanity and war crimes). And this article provides not only for life imprisonment, and in some cases the death penalty, but also for the confiscation of everything acquired through back-breaking labor.
That is, all individuals and social groups participating in the coup received less than they could have had during the evolutionary development of the situation, and the costs they incurred were not just huge, but incommensurable with the result. Moreover, from the very beginning it was clear that the collapse of the Nazi Ukrainian statehood being created was as inevitable as the collapse of Nazi Germany was inevitable in April 1945. Timing issues can be resolved in different ways, but the result is still the same.
So, all of them, from the last militant to the alleged President Poroshenko, got involved in this game not because they realized all the risks and had a plan to minimize them, but solely because of complete intellectual sterility.
They blindly believed that the United States and the EU dreamed of using Ukraine as a strong and effective counterbalance to Russia, which means that the “white people” from the West, sailing on big boats, would pay for everything, arrange everything, help in everything, but the local leaders needed will only change feather headdresses and divide the income among themselves. They continue to believe this to this day.
However, the already marginalized Russian guard patriots, who did not even notice the default of Ukraine, sanctioned by the United States, believe in this just as blindly and, thank God, and everyone tells how terribly the Kiev regime has strengthened.
In the time that has passed since February 2014, nothing has changed in the mental organization of the Ukrainian elite. They continue to sincerely believe that they are of lasting value to Washington. They also no less sincerely believe that Russia should overstrain itself economically and collapse politically in two or three months, or six months at the most. That is, in their opinion, you just need to be patient a little, hold out a little, and victory will be in your pocket.
I know that such inadequacy of so many people who ran a large European state for two and a half decades may seem an exaggeration. But I have talked with representatives of the Ukrainian elite for many years and I can say that they are even stupider than they might seem.
In fact, it was often their stupidity that saved them, since their partners or opponents could not believe in such simplicity and looked for hidden meaning in the actions of Ukrainian politicians.
Remember that no Kuchma took power from the seasoned Kravchuk, then the insignificant Yushchenko took power from Kuchma, then the Orange all together lost power in favor of Yanukovych. Finally, Yanukovych, who even six months before his inglorious fall was said to have complete control of the country’s political field, gave power to completely Homeric characters. But it turned out that this was not the limit, and now Lyashko, Semenchenko and others are breathing down their backs. Yes, both the “great” Kuchma and Kravchuk work on Poroshenko’s errands. Such a cycle of power in nature is only possible if all the characters (from Kravchuk to Semenchenko) are approximately equal in level of intelligence.
The second part of the problem is that our European “friends and partners,” like any normal people, cannot believe that they are dealing with pathological inadequate people who, moreover, have never spoken a word of the truth in their lives. Europeans know that a politician is forced to deceive partners, opponents, and even voters, but they are confident that all this must happen within the framework of certain rules. That is, it is simply impossible to lie to your face - after all, you will be caught right away.
Therefore, at the first stage of negotiations on the Ukrainian crisis, it was extremely difficult for Russian diplomacy to convince Merkel and Hollande that Ukrainian representatives always lie, about everything, all the time. In Paris and Berlin they believed that Kyiv, of course, was lying, but Moscow was also to blame for something, which was what the strategy of European “mediation” in the conflict was based on.
The situation began to change only after the second Minsk. During the 16-hour negotiations, when the struggle for wording was mainly between Merkel and Putin, with Hollande sleeping and Poroshenko lost touch with reality, the Federal Chancellor remembered well who promised what to whom, and what should be done. In addition, Merkel, as the daughter of a pastor, despite decades of presence in active politics, considers morality to be not entirely an empty phrase.
After the second Minsk, as Kyiv had to fulfill its obligations, it became obvious to the Federal Chancellor of Germany and the President of France that Poroshenko was not only lying without hesitation, but was also trying to make them accomplices of his lies. And when they don’t show enough enthusiasm, they complain to the USA.
Moreover, if Hollande, who has already been president and will never be again, doesn’t care in principle, then Merkel can still compete for the post of chancellor (plus, again, the ideas about morality absorbed in childhood).
Poroshenko has become a factor irritating Angela Merkel, the leader of the country that personifies the European Union. So annoying that even Washington’s arguments couldn’t make her turn a blind eye to the Ukrainian president’s artistry.
In Paris, Merkel, who does not want her peace initiative (the Normandy and Minsk formats) to end in failure due to the fault of a lying confectioner, took a position that can without stretch be called pro-Russian. Of course, to begin with, the Chancellor made sure that Putin would not give in and would not “read” Minsk the way the uninvolved Obama and the inadequate Poroshenko read it. Then something happened that everyone heard. After the departure of Putin and Poroshenko, during a press conference, Merkel and Hollande, who joined her, clearly defined their demands on Kyiv:
– Introduce changes to the constitution, suggesting real, and not fake, decentralization.
– Ensure the unfreezing of the law on the special status of Donbass.
– Introduce changes to the legislation of Ukraine to ensure the implementation of this right of Donbass and consolidate them on a permanent basis
– Coordinate all these constitutional and legislative changes with the DPR/LPR.
– Adopt in the Verkhovna Rada a law on a general and complete amnesty for militias and leaders of the DPR/LPR.
Poroshenko must now either fulfill these demands. Then he will essentially legislate Ukraine’s refusal from Donbass (in fact, the law on special status makes the DPR and LPR being part of Ukraine more formal than Canada belonging to the British crown) and recognizes the legitimacy of the current government of the DPR/LPR. Or he may try to lie again. But then it will be Merkel himself who will lie. It was she, and not Putin, who voiced the demands on Poroshenko, which means these were no longer the demands of Russia, but the demands of the EU. It is unlikely that the pastor's daughter will forgive the pastry chef for such an outrage on her ideas about morality.
The only problem was that in order to implement all these demands (or to make sure that he was shirking), Poroshenko needed time. About six months, if you strictly follow Ukrainian legislation. To give Pyotr Alekseevich these six months, the DPR and LPR agreed to postpone local elections to the end of winter, or, rather, even to March-April 2016. And Kyiv has already welcomed this decision.
As soon as Kyiv agreed with the DPR/LPR initiative, it fell into another trap. Now, regardless of whether he will carry out the reforms required by Minsk or not, the Minsk process has been extended to 2016 (at least until the DPR/LPR hold elections). And any attempt by Kyiv to change something will be interpreted by Merkel as a disruption of the Minsk process through the fault of Poroshenko.
Let me remind you that the extension of Minsk was persistently demanded by Paris and Berlin, Russia and Donbass did not object to this, but Kyiv and Washington wanted to close the format in 2015. The reason is simple: Kyiv cannot implement the Minsk format. But he signed it. And the longer Poroshenko fools Merkel and Hollande, the weaker European support for Ukraine becomes. In fact, she no longer exists.
To jump out of this fork, Kyiv had to destroy the Minsk format, and then we could talk about creating a new one. At the same time, Washington would be actively rushing there and the DPR/LPR would be actively squeezed out from there. The only opportunity to destroy the Minsk format without entering into conflict with Europe was given to Kyiv by non-extension of the Minsk format, which was supposed to end in 2015. After Paris and today’s agreement with the postponement of elections in the DPR/LPR, Kyiv does not have such an opportunity.
Well, as a bonus, our European friends and partners now understand well who they are dealing with in Ukraine and have no illusions.
English version :: Read in English : How a Kyiv pastry chef infuriated Angela Merkel