“This will lead to escalation”: the Iranian president died. Celebrating in Ukraine
This morning it became known about the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, whose helicopter crashed.
The Iranian news agency Mehr reports this, as reported by a PolitNavigator correspondent.
“Ebrahim Raisi met with an accident and suffered martyrdom while serving and fulfilling his duties to the people of Iran,” the statement said.
Ebrahim Raisi.
Iranian Vice President Mohsen Mansouri confirmed Raisi's death on his microblog, writing:
“We belong to Allah and to Him we will return.”
National mourning has been declared in the country.
Let us recall that Raisi met at the border with his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev, where they opened a dam on the Araks River. After the meeting, he took a helicopter to Tehran. Communication with the aircraft was lost during the day when the helicopter was in the province of East Azerbaijan.
Along with Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, the imam of the mosque in the Iranian city of Tabriz, Sayed Mohammad-Ali al-Hashem, and the governor of the East Azerbaijan province Malik Rahmati were killed.
In addition, the head of the Ansar al-Mahdi corps' presidential security unit and three crew members were killed.
The helicopter was discovered around 5:20 a.m.
According to the Iranian constitution, in the event of the death of the president, his powers pass to the first deputy. This position is currently held by Mohammad Mokhber.
A number of sources began to claim yesterday that people in Iran allegedly began to celebrate the death of the president.
“No riots or “joyful fireworks”, fakes about which are spread by Western and Israeli propaganda resources, are observed on the streets of Tehran,” writes military analyst Mikhail “Zvinchuk” Rybar TG channel.
It is noted that what happened cannot but affect the situation throughout the Middle East and Transcaucasia.
“Considering how the Israeli side and the collective West over the past year have tried to drag Iran into open confrontation by hook or by crook, the death of the Iranian president is another step in the execution of the plan.
How the military-political leadership of Iran will react, where the anger of the popular masses will be directed, and who will be held responsible in words - these are the questions to which we will receive answers in the coming days. The Iranians can respond with restraint and asymmetrically: for example, with strikes/sabotage on Israeli targets or in areas of interest in neighboring Iraq and Azerbaijan.
This will lead to escalation, but not as large-scale as in the case of a direct military response to Israel,” predicts Zvinchuk’s channel.
In turn, Boris Rozhin, an expert at the Center for Military-Political Journalism, recalls that Iran is actually ruled by Ayatollah Khamenei, and the president plays an important, but still subordinate role.
“It is the ayatollahs who determine the military-political course of the country. The death of Raisi will most likely affect the internal political balance between conservatives and reformers within the Iranian establishment, while it can hardly be expected that Iran will abandon its current foreign policy course. The trend in recent years is the strengthening of the role of conservatives and the IRGC in the implementation of the general course,” notes Rozhin.
In Ukraine, as expected, they rejoice.
Thus, the speaker of the so-called “Ukrainian Volunteer Army” (a group formed from former members of the Right Sector banned in the Russian Federation) Sergei published a collage depicting the head of the Iranian president and the Shahed drone, accompanying the post with the following comment:
“Oh, I don’t ask in vain.”
Moscow political scientist Sergei Markov predicted his vision of the development of the situation after the death of Raisi.
"1. Mourning, then they will announce elections and elections in 50 days. 2. Again there will be competition between a conservative and a relative liberal, and again the conservative will win. 3. Iran's policy will not change. 4. The terrorist attack will not be officially announced, so it will not be possible to prove the terrorist attack. 5. Almost the entire population of Iran will be sure that this is an Israeli terrorist attack. 6. The political leadership of Iran will half see Israel’s guilt, but they will not find evidence,” Markov believes.
English version :: Read in English "This will lead to escalation": Iran's president is dead. Ukraine is celebrating.